Alireza Nader

S R Bohandy

David E Thaler

Iran1s commander in chief and highest political authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, plays a critical role in Iran1s direction. This monograph explores factors shaping the succession to Khamenei and outlines post-Khamenei scenarios.

Succession in the Islamic Repulic of Iran

The Next Supreme Leader

Dalia Dassa Kaye

Parisa Roshan

Israel and Iran have come to view each other as direct regional rivals. The two countries are not natural rivals; they have shared geopolitical interests, which led to years of cooperation both before and after the 1979 Islamic revolution. But their rivalry has intensified recently, particularly with the rise of fundamentalist leaders in Iran and the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran posing grave strategic and ideological challenges to Israel.

A Dangerous Rivalry

Israel and Iran

Jeffrey Martini

Rabbi Paul Steinberg

Lynn E Davis

Professor Dalia Dassa Kaye

James T Quinlivan

As Iran?'s nuclear program evolves, U.S. decisionmakers will confront a series of critical policy choices involving complex considerations and policy trade-offs. These policy choices could involve dissuading Iran from developing nuclear weapons; deterring Iran from using its nuclear weapons, if it were to acquire them; and reassuring U.S. regional partners. The U.S. Air Force will need to prepare to carry out whatever policies are chosen.

Critical U.S. Policy Choices

Iran's Nuclear Future

Jerrold D. Green

David E. Thaler

Shahram Chubin

Charlotte Lynch

The U.S. ability to "read" the Iranian regime and formulate appropriate policies has been weakened by lack of access to the country and by the opacity of decisionmaking in Tehran. To improve understanding of Iran's political system, the authors describe Iranian strategic culture; investigate Iran's informal networks, formal government institutions, and personalities; assess the impact of elite behavior on Iranian policy; and summarize key trends.

An Exploration of Iranian Leadership Dynamics

Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads

Ali G. Scotten

Larry Hanauer

Brenna Allen

Examines the potential regional implications of an independent Kurdistan in northern Iraq.

Regional Implications of an Independent Kurdistan

Frederic Wehrey

Theodore W. Karasik

Jeremy J. Ghez

Lydia Hansell

This book surveys how Saudi-Iranian relations have unfolded in the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine since 2003, identifying the sources of rivalry and cooperation between the two powers. Understanding and leveraging this relationship will be a critical part of U.S. efforts to promote stability after the drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq and to manage the regional impact of Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for U.S. Policy

Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam

Andrew Radin

Madeline Magnuson

Todd C. Helmus

Katya Migacheva

Linda Robinson

Raphael S. Cohen

"The United States today faces a number of actors who employ a wide range of political, informational, military, and economic measures to influence, coerce, intimidate, or undermine U.S. interests or those of friends and allies; many of these measures are often collectively referred to as "political warfare." This report analyzes political warfare as it is practiced today by both state and nonstate actors, and provides detailed recommendations regarding the most effective ways that the U.S. government, along with its allies and partners, can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests. The authors examine historical antecedents of political warfare and current-day practices through in-depth case studies of Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State. They use these cases to derive common attributes of modern political warfare. The authors then identify effective means for responding to these challenges. Drawing on documentary and field research as well as extensive semistructured interviews with practitioners in the U.S. government and elsewhere, they determine gaps in practices and capabilities for addressing political warfare threats. The report concludes with recommendations for countering political warfare by creating a more effective, coordinated, and cost-sensitive approach to effective statecraft, including specific measures for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. military, particularly the special operations community. "--Publisher's description.

Current Practices and Possible Responses

Modern Political Warfare

Ahmad Idrees Rahmani

Robert Stewart

Leila Mahnad

This study explores Iranian influence in Afghanistan and the implications for the United States after most U.S. forces depart Afghanistan in 2016. Iran has substantial economic, political, cultural, and religious leverage in Afghanistan. Although Iran will attempt to shape a post-2014 Afghanistan, Iran and the United States share core interests: to prevent the country from again becoming dominated by the Taliban and a safe haven for al Qaeda.

Implications for the U.S. Drawdown

Iran’s Influence in Afghanistan

Alireza Nader

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