Andrew Scobell

Phillip C. Saunders

PLA Influence on China's National Security Policymaking

Larry M. Wortzel

The contributions contained herein address the role of the Chinese military in shaping its country's security environment. Of course, the PLA itself is shaped and molded by both domestic and foreign influences. In the first decade of the 21st century, the PLA is not a central actor in China's foreign policy the way it was just a few decades ago. Nevertheless, the significance of the PLA must be understood. The military remains a player that seeks to play a role and influence China's policy towards such countries and regions as the United States, Japan, the Koreas, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and of course, Taiwan. It is important not to overlook that, in times of crisis or conflict, the role and influence of the PLA rise significantly.

The Role of the People's Liberation Army

Shaping China's Security Environment

Donald Trump

Strategic Studies Institute

U.S. Congress

Daniel A. Pinkston

John M. Sanford

North Korea is a country of paradoxes and contradictions. Although it remains an economic basket case that cannot feed and clothe its own people, it nevertheless possesses one of the world's largest armed forces. Whether measured in terms of the total number of personnel in uniform, numbers of special operations soldiers, the size of its submarine fleet, quantity of ballistic missiles in its arsenal, or its substantial weapons of mass destruction programs, Pyongyang is a major military power. Content: North Korea's Military Threat Conventional Forces Unconventional Forces Overall Conclusions The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program DPRK National Strategy and Motivations Historical Background of DPRK Missile Development Institutional Setting Conclusion U.S. Government Policy Toward North Korea Countering the North Korean Threat (New Steps in U.S. Policy) Pressuring North Korea (Evaluating Options) President Donald Trump on Current Crisis on the Korean Peninsula A Message to the Congress of the United States on the Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to North Korea Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to North Korea Statement from the President on North Korea's Second ICBM Launch Statement by President Donald J. Trump on North Korea About the Authors

THE TRUE FORCE OF NORTH KOREA: Military, Weapons of Mass Destruction and Ballistic Missiles, Including Reaction of the U.S. Government to the Korean Military Threat

Roy Kamphausen

Travis Tanner

"As part of its larger reform effort to modernize and transform its military into a technologically sophisticated force, the PLA has implemented a number of measures aimed at training up a "new-type" officer for its modernized forces--one capable of operating effectively in a technologically advanced 'informationalized' environment"--Foreword.

Recruitment, Training, and Education in China's Military

The "people" in the PLA

North Korea's conventional capabilities have eroded but remain significant, including its sizeable contingent of special operations forces. Meanwhile, Pyongyang continues the vigorous development of its nuclear and missile programs, and has ongoing chemical and biological weapons programs. Perhaps the biggest unanswered questions concern North Korea's military intentions. Does the Korean People's Army have an offensive or defensive doctrine? Does Pyongyang intend to use its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles to replace the threat posed by its eroding conventional forces? Or is its intention to use conventional and unconventional forces in what it might view as a winning combination? In theory, U.S. forces could carry out preemptive precision attacks to destroy known North Korean nuclear facilities and missile emplacements, but such attacks might provoke North Korean retaliation and trigger a general conflict. Washington and Seoul cannot overthrow the North Korean regime by force or destroy its strategic military assets without risking devastating losses in the process. Meanwhile, North Korea cannot invade the South without inviting a fatal counterattack from the United States and South Korea. Thus, the balance of forces that emerged from the Korean War, and which helped maintain the armistice for more than 50 years, remains in place.

Pyongyang's Conventional Forces, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Ballistic Missiles

North Korea's Military Threat

The author seeks to assist planners and decisionmakers in thinking about and preparing for possible future contingencies concerning North Korea. He does not dwell on war or conflict scenarios involving North Korea because military planners have already focused considerable effort and attention on these. It is entirely possible that the fate of the country as a political, territorial, and juridical entity is intimately bound up with the fate of the Kim Jong Il regime, but one should not assume this to be so. In other words, the collapse of the Kim regime may not lead to the collapse of North Korea as a state. Moreover, one should not assume that even if the regime collapse is followed by state collapse that these events would inexorably lead to Korean unification.

The Future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il Regime

Projecting Pyongyang

In the first decade of the 21st century, few national security challenges facing the United States is as vexing as that posed by North Korea. It is a paradox because it appears to be a very powerful state-possessing the world's fourth largest armed forces, a sizeable arsenal of ballistic missiles, and a worrying nuclear program-but it is also an economic basket case in terms of agricultural output, industrial production, and foreign trade exports. Virtually every aspect of the Pyongyang regime is mysterious and puzzling. In short, North Korea is difficult for Americans to understand and analyze, beginning with confusion about what kind of political system North Korea has and what kind of man leads it. The author explores Pyongyang's political dynamics and seeks to shed light on the political system of North Korea and its leader.

The Leader and the System

Kim Jong Il and North Korea

Andrew J. Nathan

Despite its impressive size and population, economic vitality, and drive to upgrade its military, China remains a vulnerable nation surrounded by powerful rivals and potential foes. Understanding ChinaÕs foreign policy means fully appreciating these geostrategic challenges, which persist even as the country gains increasing influence over its neighbors. Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell analyze ChinaÕs security concerns on four fronts: at home, with its immediate neighbors, in surrounding regional systems, and in the world beyond Asia. By illuminating the issues driving Chinese policy, they offer a new perspective on the countryÕs rise and a strategy for balancing Chinese and American interests in Asia. Though rooted in the present, Nathan and ScobellÕs study makes ample use of the past, reaching back into history to illuminate the people and institutions shaping Chinese strategy today. They also examine Chinese views of the United States; explain why China is so concerned about Japan; and uncover ChinaÕs interests in such problematic countries as North Korea, Iran, and the Sudan. The authors probe recent troubles in Tibet and Xinjiang and explore their links to forces beyond ChinaÕs borders. They consider the tactics deployed by mainland China and Taiwan, as Taiwan seeks to maintain autonomy in the face of Chinese advances toward unification. They evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of ChinaÕs three main power resourcesÑeconomic power, military power, and soft power. The authors conclude with recommendations for the United States as it seeks to manage ChinaÕs rise. Chinese policymakers understand that their nationÕs prosperity, stability, and security depend on cooperation with the United States. If handled wisely, the authors believe, relations between the two countries can produce mutually beneficial outcomes for both Asia and the world.

China's Search for Security

In recent years there have been reports of actions purportedly taken by People's Liberation Army (PLA) units without civilian authorization, and of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) civilian leaders seeking to curry favor with the military—suggesting that a nationalistic and increasingly influential PLA is driving more assertive Chinese policies on a range of military and sovereignty issues. To many experienced PLA watchers, however, the PLA remains a "party-army" that is responsive to orders from the CCP. PLA Influence on China's National Security Policymaking seeks to assess the "real" relationship between the PLA and its civilian masters by moving beyond media and pundit speculation to mount an in-depth examination and explanation of the PLA's role in national security policymaking. After examining the structural factors that shape PLA interactions with the Party-State, the book uses case studies to explore the PLA's role in foreign policy crises. It then assesses the PLA's role in China's territorial disputes and in military interactions with civilian government and business, exploring the military's role in China's civil–military integration development strategy. The evidence reveals that today's PLA does appear to have more influence on purely military issues than in the past—but much less influence on political issues—and to be more actively engaged in policy debates on mixed civil-military issues where military equities are at stake.

David Lai

"The chapters presented in this volume have demonstrated first, Chinese and PLA leaders have a strong sense of mission and concern for China's security and well-being. Second, the PLA is committed to the transformation in military affairs with Chinese characteristics. Third, the PLA is eager to learn from the U.S. military to expand and improve its operational capabilities. Finally, the PLA has made progress in its transformation and operational capabilities. For a long time, American leaders have been surprised with the PLA's advances. This volume (and many of the previous volumes from past PLA conferences) show that these advances did not come out of the blue. Although much of the learning and many of the improvements are still far from what is desired (from Chinese expectations and American critiques), and some of the learning has even created contradictions for the PLA, these persistent and diligent learning practices will eventually bring the PLA to a higher level of proficiency in its capabilities. The emergence of a much more sophisticated PLA in the coming years should not be a surprise."--P. 37-38.

Assessing the Operational Capabilities of China's Military

The PLA at Home and Abroad

Phillip Saunders

Andrew James Nathan

Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell analyze China's security concerns on four fronts: at home, with its immediate neighbors, in surrounding regional systems, and in the world beyond Asia. By illuminating the issues driving Chinese policy, they offer a new perspective on the country's rise and a strategy for balancing Chinese and American interests in Asia. The authors probe recent troubles in Tibet and Xinjiang, exploring their links to forces beyond China's borders. They also consider the tactics deployed by mainland China and Taiwan, as the latter seeks to maintain autonomy in the face of Chinese advances toward unification, and they evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of China's three main power resources--economic power, military power, and soft power.

Eric Warner

Chad J. R. Ohlandt

Edmund J. Burke

Cortez A. Cooper III

Sale Lilly

J.D. Williams

To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.

Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition

China’s Grand Strategy

Brian Shoup

Sumit Ganguly

In this edited book, leading scholars and analysts trace the origins, evolution and the current state of Indo-US strategic cooperation. During the Cold War, owing to opposing grand strategies, the two states frequently found themselves at odds. With the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union, Indo-US security cooperation started in a fitful fashion, but in recent years it has acquired considerable stability. The armed forces of the two states have participated in exercises on land, sea and air and have also carried out joint humanitarian missions. Drawing on new information and with contributions from both academics and policy makers, this wide-ranging volume analyzes the strategic convergence of the world’s two largest democracies, whilst explaining why important differences do remain. These notably include questions pertaining to the future of India’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, US-Pakistan ties and India’s links with Iran. This volume will be of great interest to students of South Asian politics, Asian security, US foreign policy and security studies in general.

More Than Words

US-Indian Strategic Cooperation Into the 21st Century

Laurie Burkitt

With the armed forces of the People's Republic of China celebrating their 75th anniversary on August 1, 2002, it only seemed appropriate and timely to take stock of the world's largest military. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has officially been in existence for three-quarters of a century, and its history is one filled with turmoil and warfare. One weekend in September 2002, a group of PLA specialists gathered at Carlisle Barracks, the home of the U.S. Army War College, to assess what lessons China's soldiers had drawn from the history of their own armed forces. This volume constitutes the final product of months of extensive research by the individual authors and hours of intense discussion at the 3-day conference by approximately 50 participants. The conference was sponsored jointly by the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and the U.S. Army War College. It is with great pleasure that I commend this book to anyone with a serious interest in the Chinese military.

Andrew Scobell

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