Paul K. Davis

Angela O'Mahony

Jonathan Pfautz

Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems

Christian Curriden

RAND researchers describe an experimental "thinking-Red" approach to analysis, wargaming, and other exercises to help inform strategies to avoid aggression or escalation in a crisis. It features alternative models of the adversary.

Quelling Perfect Storms

Influencing Adversary States

Osonde A. Osoba

Timothy R. Gulden

Katharine Sieck

Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles--some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices--then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.

Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

This volume describes frontiers in social-behavioral modeling for contexts as diverse as national security, health, and on-line social gaming. Recent scientific and technological advances have created exciting opportunities for such improvements. However, the book also identifies crucial scientific, ethical, and cultural challenges to be met if social-behavioral modeling is to achieve its potential. Doing so will require new methods, data sources, and technology. The volume discusses these, including those needed to achieve and maintain high standards of ethics and privacy. The result should be a new generation of modeling that will advance science and, separately, aid decision-making on major social and security-related subjects despite the myriad uncertainties and complexities of social phenomena. Intended to be relatively comprehensive in scope, the volume balances theory-driven, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. The latter may be rapidly iterative, as when artificial-intelligence methods are coupled with theory-driven insights to build models that are sound, comprehensible and usable in new situations. With the intent of being a milestone document that sketches a research agenda for the next decade, the volume draws on the wisdom, ideas and suggestions of many noted researchers who draw in turn from anthropology, communications, complexity science, computer science, defense planning, economics, engineering, health systems, medicine, neuroscience, physics, political science, psychology, public policy and sociology. In brief, the volume discusses: Cutting-edge challenges and opportunities in modeling for social and behavioral science Special requirements for achieving high standards of privacy and ethics New approaches for developing theory while exploiting both empirical and computational data Issues of reproducibility, communication, explanation, and validation Special requirements for models intended to inform decision making about complex social systems

Thomas S. Szayna

William Welser, IV

Derek Eaton

RAND Corporation researchers identified three key operational challenges that forward-deployed personnel have encountered and then assessed the extent to which persistent, networked, and distributed operations can mitigate these challenges.

Insights from Forward-Deployed Sof Personnel SOF Personnel

Supporting Persistent and Networked Special Operations Forces (SOF) Operations

Jennifer Kavanagh

Stephen Watts

Bryan Frederick

Tova C. Norlen

Phoenix Voorhies

Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.

An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections

Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers

Angela O'Mahony

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