Arno Tausch

This book studies values and attitudes in the Gulf region. In light of global power shifts, the threatening collapse of internal security in the West, and uncertainty about the current leadership vacuum in world society, this book explores a future leading role of the Gulf countries in such institutions as the G-20 and the OECD. Based on rigorous analysis of macro-level data and opinion surveys with relevance for the Gulf region, it analyzes the global macro-factors shaping the Gulf's future at a time of the global COVID-19 crisis and depression and rising global tensions. Starting with an empirical time series analysis of the long cycles of global politics and economics, it highlights the implications for the Gulf region. Offering a multivariate analysis of civil society values in the Gulf, the author analyzes value changes and attitudes on antisemitism, political Islam, internal security, democracy, and other issues of Arab politics. The partially optimistic conclusions of the study testify to the underestimated and incipient maturity of the Gulf’s civil society and strongly suggest that the Gulf's future is rather with the free societies of the West and not with a Neo-Ottoman Empire in whatever form. "Exceptional in scope and right up-to-the-minute in coverage" Brian M Pollins, Associate, Professor Emeritus, The Ohio State University. "An outstanding and topical book by an astute scholar of the MENA region" Professor Hussein Solomon, Academic Head of Department, Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State, South Africa. "The most comprehensive and insightful study on the subject to date" Manfred B. Steger, Professor of Sociology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa and Global Professorial Fellow, Western Sydney University.

Value Change and Global Cycles

The Future of the Gulf Region

Leonid Grinin

Andrey Korotayev

This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations. Among the topics in this ambitious volume: · Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis. · Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape. · How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.“/p> · The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South. · Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

This book provides an in-depth analysis of public opinion patterns among Muslims, particularly in the Arab world. On the basis of data from the World Values Survey, the Arab Barometer Project and the Arab Opinion Index, it compares the dynamics of Muslim opinion structures with global publics and arrives at social scientific predictions of value changes in the region. Using country factor scores from a variety of surveys, it also develops composite indices of support for democracy and a liberal society on a global level and in the Muslim world, and analyzes a multivariate model of opinion structures in the Arab world, based on over 40 variables from 12 countries in the Arab League and covering 67% of the total population of the Arab countries. While being optimistic about the general, long-term trend towards democracy and the resilience of Arab and Muslim civil society to Islamism, the book also highlights anti-Semitic trends in the region and discusses them in the larger context of xenophobia in traditional societies. In light of the current global confrontation with radical Islamism, this book provides vital material for policy planners, academics and think tanks alike.

World System and World Values Perspectives

Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy

Almas Heshmati

Looks at the global issues that cause some nations to stagnate while others rush forward.

Globalization, the EU's Lisbon Process and the Structures of Global Inequality

Roadmap to Bangalore?

Gernot Kohler

Global Keynesianism - Unequal Exchange & Global Exploration

Unequal Exchange and Global Exploitation

Global Keynesianism

Peter Herrmann

William R. Thompson

Willi Semmler

Leonid E. Grinin

Andrey V. Korotayev

Stephen I. Ternyik

Brian J. L. Berry

Philippe Jourdon 

Lucas Bernard

Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan

Tom Palley

Denis J. Dean

Euel Elliott

Jonas Van Vossole

Leo Nefiodow

 Simone Nefiodow

Anton L. Grinin 

Valentina M. Bondarenko

Nikolai D. Kondratieff

Barry K. Gills

 Robert A. Denemark

In the period from the 1920s to 1930s the theory of economic cycles underwent dramatic changes. Due to the research of such famous economists as Nikolay Kondratieff, Joseph Kitchin, Wesley Mitchell, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter the idea of a whole system of economic cycles (with characteristic periods between two and sixty years) was developed. The idea of a system of intertwined economic cycles is nowadays paramount to the school of evolutionary economics and its development promises rather interesting future outcomes. That is why this issue of our ‘Kondratieff Waves’ Yearbook is devoted to the interconnections between various economic cycles. As to the subtitle of this volume, one should note that many of the contributors refer to the system of cycles and the fact that real economic cycles make up a system, whereas among different types of cycles, the Juglar, Kuznets, and Kondratieff cycles are the most important ones for the present-day economic dynamics. Although Kondratieff himself considered long waves as above all an economic phenomenon, the theory of the long waves became, however, very actively developed in connection with their political and geopolitical aspects. In this Yearbook, the political aspect of Kondratieff waves is the subject of several articles in the second section. The last section of this Yearbook is devoted to the heritage of Kondratieff and other prominent economists. The year 2015 marks the 150th anniversary of the outstanding Russian economist, one of the most prominent researchers of medium-term economic cycles, Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky, and the volume is concluded with Kondratieff's article about him. Concerning 2015, we should mention another anniversary, namely, 30 years since the death of Simon Kuznets (1901–1985). This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization.

Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff

Kondrarieff waves

While there is a never-ending debate on Islamism, Islamist terrorism and the identity of Europe vis-á-vis growing Muslim communities in Europe, there are hardly any solid cross-national data being presented on the real extent of the Islamist threat facing Europe, and on the social conditions that lead to Islamist radicalism. By and large, our rigorous quantitative results, based on the first systematic use of the Muslim community data contained in the 'European Social Survey' (ESS) all support a socio-liberal view of "migration" and "integration", compatible with much of the rest of current European political economic thinking regarding the future alternatives for the European Union, and contradict the very extended current alarmist political discourse in Western Europe.

Muslim Communities, Social-exclusion and the Lisbon Process in Europe

Against Islamophobia

Antony Harper

Yuri E. Berezkin

Svetlana A. Borinskaya

Albert I. Davletshin

Daria A. Khaltourina

Alexander D. Panov

The present Yearbook (which is the sixth in the series) is subtitled Economy, Demography, Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations. To some extent it reveals the extraordinary potential of scientific research. The common feature of all our Yearbooks, including the present volume, is the usage of formal methods and social studies methods in their synthesis to analyze different phenomena. In other words, if to borrow Alexander Pushkin's words, ‘to verify the algebra with harmony’. One should note that publishing in a single collection the articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales – from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world – reflects our approach to the selection of contributions for the Yearbook. History and Mathematics, Social Studies and formal methods, as previously noted, can bring nontrivial results in the studies of different spheres and epochs. This issue consists of three main sections: (I) Historical and Technological Dimensions includes two papers (the first is about the connection between genes, myths and waves of the peopling of Americas; the second one is devoted to quantitative analysis of innovative activity and competition in technological sphere in the Middle Ages and Modern Period); (II) Economic and Cultural Dimensions (the contributions are mostly focused on modern period); (III) Modeling and Theories includes two papers with interesting models (the first one concerns modeling punctuated equilibria apparent in the macropattern of urbanization over time; in the second one the author attempts to estimate the number of Communicative Civilizations). We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.

Economy, Demography, Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations

History & Mathematics:

With the process of a 'wider Europe' (EU-Commission President Romano Prodi's 'ring of friends') that extends from Marrakech in Morocco to St Petersburg in Russia gathering speed, the growing rift between Europe and America also is about how to deal politically with the countries of the Mediterranean-Muslim world. The house of Islam (Dar al Islam) was pivotal to the European path to the Renaissance and to the re-discovery of classic Greek philosophy. The Mediterranean policy of the European Union aims at a positive and co-operative relationship with the region. A successful integration of the Mediterranean South would have tremendous and positive repercussions for regional and world peace. World-wide leading experts from the field of world systems analysis, economics, integration theory, political science, theology and area studies, agnostics, Christians, Jews and Muslims alike discuss the issue with European decision makers. The outcome is an interdisciplinary evaluation of this projected export of peace, co-operation, dialogue and stability in the framework of world centre-periphery relationships.

The "cultural Enlargement" of the EU and Europe's Identity

Dar Al Islam--the Mediterranean, the World System, and the Wider Europe

Stanislaw Obirek

This book systematically assesses the political and social values of the more than 1.3 billion Catholics around the globe, by far the largest denomination of Western Christianity. Based on an extensive analysis of data from the World Values Survey and other global opinion surveys, the book sheds new light on the value systems and opinions of Roman Catholics. The authors highlight core problems and challenges the Church is currently facing in adapting to the modern world, including Catholic anti-Semitism, religious and sexual tolerance, and opinions towards democracy, while also offering an anthropological reflection on how well the Church is adapting or failing to adapt to the requirements of an open society.

An Empirical Study of the Value Systems of Roman Catholics

Global Catholicism, Tolerance and the Open Society

Arno Tausch

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