S. Rebecca Zimmerman

Ben Connable

Aaron Frank

Benjamin J. Fernandes

Michael J. McNerney

Marek N. Posard

Natasha Lander

Jasen J. Castillo

Dan Madden

Christopher Paul

Ilana Blum

In Hyo Seol

Andrew Parasiliti

"What drives some governments to persevere in war at any price while others choose to stop fighting? It is often less-tangible political and economic variables, rather than raw military power, that ultimately determine national will to fight. In this analysis, the authors explore how these variables strengthen or weaken a government's determination to conduct sustained military operations, even when the expectation of success decreases or the need for significant political, economic, and military sacrifices increases. This report is part of a broader RAND Arroyo Center effort to help U.S. leaders better understand and influence will to fight at both the national level and the tactical and operational levels. It presents findings and recommendations based on a wide-ranging literature review, a series of interviews, 15 case studies (including deep dives into conflicts involving the Korean Peninsula and Russia), and reviews of relevant modeling and war-gaming. The authors propose an exploratory model of 15 variables that can be tailored and applied to a wide set of conflict scenarios and drive a much-needed dialogue among analysts conducting threat assessments, contingency plans, war games, and other efforts that require an evaluation of how future conflicts might unfold. The recommendations should provide insights into how leaders can influence will to fight in both allies and adversaries."--Publisher's description.

Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't

National Will to Fight

The unpredictable counterinsurgency environment challenges centralized, quantitative campaign assessment. A comprehensive examination of the centralized, quantitative approach to assessment, as described in the literature and doctrine and applied in two primary case studies (Vietnam and Afghanistan), reveals weaknesses and gaps and proposes an alternative process: contextual assessment.

Assessment and Metrics in Counterinsurgency

Embracing the Fog of War

Richard R. Jr. Brennan

Charles P. Ries

Larry Hanauer

Terrence K. Kelly

Ending the U.S. war in Iraq required redeploying 100,000 military and civilian personnel; handing off responsibility for 431 activities to the Iraqi government, U.S. embassy, USCENTCOM, or other U.S. government entities; and moving or transferring ownership of over a million pieces of property in accordance with U.S. and Iraqi laws, national policy, and DoD requirements. This book examines the planning and execution of this transition.

The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver, and Disestablishment of United States Forces-Iraq

Ending the U.S. War in Iraq

Jason H. Campbell

Russia, China, and Iran use measures short of war to exploit and stretch U.S. thresholds for war to further their strategic ends. This report describes those measures, how nation-states use them, and why U.S. notions of thresholds might be outdated.

How Russia, China, and Iran Are Eroding American Influence Using Time-Tested Measures Short of War

Stretching and Exploiting Thresholds for High-Order War

William Marcellino

Henry Hargrove

James Sladden

This report defines and describes will to fight and provides a model of unit will to fight that can be applied to ground combat units of any scale. It also provides a theoretical basis for adding will to fight to military war gaming.

Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units

Will to Fight

Martin C. Libicki

RAND studied 89 modern insurgency cases to test conventional understanding about how insurgencies end. Findings relevant to policymakers and analysts include that modern insurgencies last about ten years; withdrawal of state support cripples insurgencies; civil defense forces are useful for both sides; pseudodemocracies fare poorly against insurgents; and governments win more often in the long run.

How Insurgencies End

Ben Connable

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