Campbell R. Harvey

Ashwin Ramachandran

Joey Santoro

During the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, our financial infrastructure failed. Govern­ments bailed out the very institutions that let the economy down. This episode spurred a serious rethink of our financial system. Does it make any sense that it takes two days to settle a stock transaction? Why do retailers, operating on razor thin margins, have to pay 3% for every customer credit card swipe? Why does it take two days to transfer money from a bank account to a brokerage—or any other company? Why are savings rates miniscule or negative? Why is it so difficult for entrepreneurs to get financ­ing at traditional banks? In DeFi and the Future of Finance, Campbell R. Harvey, Ashwin Ramachandran and Joey Santoro, introduce the new world of Decen­tralized Finance. The book argues that the current financial landscape is ripe for dis­ruption and we are seeing, in real time, the reinvention of finance. The authors provide the reader with a clear assessment of the problems with the current financial system and how DeFi solves many of these problems. The essence of DeFi is that we interact with peers—there is no brick and mortar and all of the associated costs. Savings and lending are reinvented. Trading takes place with algorithms far re­moved from traditional brokerages. The book conducts a deep dive on some of the most innovative protocols such as Uniswap and Compound. Many of the companies featured in the book you might not have heard of—however, you will in the future. As with any new technology, there are a myriad of risks and the authors carefully catalogue these risks and assess which ones can be successfully mitigated. Ideally suited for people working in any part of the finance industry as well as finan­cial policy makers, DeFi and the Future of Finance gives readers a vision of the future. The world of finance will fundamentally be changed over the coming decade. The book enables you to become part of the disruption – not the target of the disruption.

DeFi and the Future of Finance

Sandy Rattray

Otto Van Hemert

A fresh approach to managing risk in the most challenging market conditions Strategic Risk Management presents an innovative approach to portfolio design. Often the risk management function is a series of tripwires that are activated after the portfolio is already in trouble. Strategic Risk Management presents a framework that seeks to integrate the initial portfolio design and the risk management function. Much of the book’s research was conducted pre-COVID-19; the market selloff in March 2020 offers a unique out of sample experiment that provides evidence supportive of the approach. A crucial ingredient in this integrative design is to understand the performance of various investment strategies in stressful market conditions. The book begins by measuring the performance of various assets and strategies that purport to provide hedging abilities: such as put options and long gold positions. While put options are an extremely reliable, few would want to give up 700 basis points a year to buy this type of insurance. And even if gold does not have the type of drag that long options strategies do, gold turns out to be an unreliable hedge. We focus on two investments that historically offer impressive protection in adverse events: trend following strategies and quality-based equity strategies. We show that performance of trend following strategies is naturally linked to the payoff of a long call and long put position. This property is particularly useful in mitigating portfolio drawdowns. The book also considers operational strategies such as portfolio rebalancing. Most investors routinely rebalance their portfolios, for example, to a 60/40 equity/bond mix. However, few investors realize that a mechanical rebalancing strategy increases drawdowns and portfolio risk. The reason is simple. In extended equity sell offs, the rebalancing strategy is to buy, which increases drawdowns. Strategic Risk Management offers an intuitive solution. If the trend following signal suggests that the drawdown will continue, delay the rebalancing. We call this strategic rebalancing. The book contains various other insights, including analyzing the impact of a portfolio strategy that targets a certain risk level. This technique reduces allocations to the riskiest assets when volatility spikes. Given that surges in volatility are usually associated with plunging markets, this strategy also reduces drawdowns. The reader of this book will: Learn how to incorporate risk management into the core portfolio design, rather than treating it as an afterthought; Gain a deeper understanding of concepts such as portfolio rebalancing; Acquire tools to achieve a more balanced return stream through volatility targeting of higher-risk asset classes; Obtain an overview of various defensive strategies, and learn which strategies offer the most reliable and affordable protection; Be equipped with a set of rules that allows for the early detection of strategies or managers that have faded. Strategic Risk Management is a thought-provoking resource for developing your portfolio design and risk management skills.

Designing Portfolios and Managing Risk

Strategic Risk Management

National Bureau of Economic Research

Claude B. Erb

While gold objects have existed for thousands of years, gold's role in diversified portfolios is not well understood. We critically examine popular stories such as 'gold is an inflation hedge'. We show that gold may be an effective hedge if the investment horizon is measured in centuries. Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge. We also explore valuation. The real price of gold is currently high compared to history. In the past, when the real price of gold was above average, subsequent real gold returns have been below average consistent with mean reversion. On the demand side, we focus on the official gold holdings of many countries. If prominent emerging markets increase their gold holdings to average per capita or per GDP holdings of developed countries, the real price of gold may rise even further from today's elevated levels. In the end, investors face a golden dilemma: 1) embrace a view that 'those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it' and the purchasing power of gold is likely to revert to its mean or 2) embrace a view that the emergence of new markets represent a structural change and 'this time is different'

Campbell R. Harvey

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