Charles Goodhart

Manoj Pradhan

This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.

Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival

The Great Demographic Reversal

Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

This book addresses the interaction of monetary and regulatory policy to achieve the important goal of price and financial stability. The authors show how financial stability can be assessed and measured continuously, and discuss the interrelationships between liquidity and default. Without default there would be no concern about liquidity. But the financial crisis was not just a liquidity problem, and requires a general equilibrium model. Their general equilibrium analysis demonstrates how policy should depend on understanding all the relevant factors.

Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

Financial Regulation and Stability

Gerhard Illing

A Reader

Financial Crises, Contagion, and the Lender of Last Resort : A Reader

Boris Hofmann

Professor of Banking and Finance Charles Goodhart

House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.

Implications for Banking and Price Stability

House Prices and the Macroeconomy

In the foreign exchange market characterized by nonlinearity ?

The Evolution of Central Banks employs a wide range of historical evidence and reassesses current monetary analysis to argue that the development of non-profit-maximizing and noncompetitive central banks to supervise and regulate the commercial banking system fulfils a necessary and natural function. Goodhart surveys the case for free banking, examines the key role of the clearing house in the evolution of the central bank, and investigates bank expansion and fluctuation in the context of the clearing house mechanism. He concludes that it is the noncompetitive aspect of the central bank that is crucial to the performance of its role. Goodhart addresses the questions of deposit insurance and takes up the "club theory" approach to the central bank. Included in the historical study of their origins are 8 European central banks, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve Board of the United States.

The Evolution of Central Banks

Philipp Hartmann

David T. Llewellyn

Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Steven Weisbrod

Financial Regulation presents an important restatement of the purposes and objectives of financial regulation. The authors provide details and data on the scale, nature and costs of regulatory problems around the world, and look at what sort of countries and sectors require special attention and policies. Key topics covered include: * the need to recast the form of regulation * incentive structures for financial regulation * proportionality * new techniques for risk management * regulation in emerging countries * crisis management * prospects for financial regulation in the future.

Why, How and Where Now?

Financial Regulation

Forrest Capie

Stanley Fischer

Norbert Schnadt

Papers from the Bank of England's Tercentenary Symposium provide an authoritative account of the evolution of central banking and explore policy dilemmas.

The Tercentenary Symposium of the Bank of England

The Future of Central Banking

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) sets the guidelines for world-wide regulation of banks. It is the forum for agreeing international regulation on the conduct of banking. Based on special access to the archives of the BCBS and interviews with many of its key players, this book tells the story of the early years of the Committee from its foundation in 1974/5 right through until 1997 - the year that marks the watershed between the Basel I Accord on Capital Adequacy and the start of work on Basel II. In addition, the book covers the Concordat, the Market Risk Amendment, the Core Principles of Banking and all other facets of the work of the BCBS. While the book is primarily a record of the history of the BCBS, it also provides an assessment of its actions and efficacy. It is a major contribution to the historical record on banking supervision.

A History of the Early Years 1974–1997

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision

Daniela Gabor

Jakob Vestergaard

Ismail Ertürk

This book reflects on the innovations that central banks have introduced since the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers to improve their modes of intervention, regulation and resolution of financial markets and financial institutions. Authors from both academia and policy circles explore these innovations through four approaches: ‘Bank Capital Regulation’ examines the Basel III agreement; ‘Bank Resolution’ focuses on effective regimes for regulating and resolving ailing banks; ‘Central Banking with Collateral-Based Finance’ develops thought on the challenges that market-based finance pose for the conduct of central banking; and ‘Where Next for Central Banking’ examines the trajectory of central banking and its new, central role in sustaining capitalism.

Europe and Beyond

Central Banking at a Crossroads

Richard Brearley

Juliette Healey

Peter J N Sinclair

Chang Shu

An overview of present day thought on the very topical subject of financial stability and central banking. The papers, written by leading researchers, provide a highly informed account of contemporary policy issues and explore the legal, regulatory, managerial and economic issues that affect central banks.

A Global Perspective

Financial Stability and Central Banks

A View from Threadneedle Street

Monetary Relationships

Charles Goodhart

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