Dan Gardner

Philip Tetlock

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting

Bent Flyvbjerg

Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant new reality. Think of how Apple’s iPod went from a project with a single employee to an enormously successful product launch in eleven months. But such successes are the exception. Consider how London’s Crossrail project delivered five years late and billions over budget. More modest endeavours, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly fail. Why?

Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life’s work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg. In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors that lead projects to fail, and the research-based principles that will make yours succeed:

Understand your odds. If you don’t know them, you won’t win.
Plan slow, act fast. Getting to the action quick feels right. But it’s wrong.
Think right to left. Start with your goal, then identify the steps to get there.
Find your Lego. Big is best built from small.
Master the unknown unknowns. Most think they can’t, so they fail. Flyvbjerg shows how you can.

The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything in Between

How Big Things Get Done

An analysis of the scientific causes of irrational fear offers insight into the brain's role in causing people to experience and react to fear, in a report that explains how heightened fear in the post-9/11 world is dangerously intersecting with biologically driven responses.

Why We Fear the Things We Shouldn't-- and Put Ourselves in Greater Danger

The Science of Fear

Why Expert Predictions Fail-- and why We Believe Them Anyway

Future Babble

We are the safest humans who ever lived - the statistics prove it. And yet the media tells a different story with its warnings and scare stories. How is it possible that anxiety has become the stuff of daily life? In this ground-breaking, compulsively readable book, Dan Gardner shows how our flawed strategies for perceiving risk influence our lives, often with unforeseen and sometimes-tragic consequences. He throws light on our paranoia about everything from paedophiles to terrorism and reveals how the most significant threats are actually the mundane risks to which we pay little attention. Speaking to psychologists and scientists, as well as looking at the influence of the media and politicians, Gardner uncovers one of the central puzzles of our time: why are the safest people in history living in a culture of fear?

The Science and Politics of Fear

Risk

Philip E. Tetlock

Todas as nossas decisões envolvem prognósticos sobre o futuro - agimos com base em previsões implícitas do que provavelmente vai acontecer. O problemaé que costumamos errar muito mais do que acertar. Em um estudo que durou vinte anos, o psicólogo e cientista social Philip Tetlock demonstrou que, ao prever o futuro, um especialista é apenas um pouco melhor do que um leigo. No entanto, com base nos resultados de uma pesquisa inovadora, Tetlock provou que alguns indivíduos têm uma extraordinária habilidade de previsão 60% mais precisa que a média. Superprevisões revela os segredos desse grupo de elite e oferece conselhos práticos sobre como podemos usá-los em benefício próprio.

Superprevisões

In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading.

Why We Fear the Things We Shouldn't -- and Put Ourselves in Greater Danger

An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expertprediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with futurehistory.

Why Expert Predictions Fail and why We Believe Them Anyway

Wie Projekte gelingen - von der Küchenrenovierung bis zur Marsmission | »Wichtig, zeitgemäß, lehrreich und unterhaltsam.« Daniel Kahneman

'Important, timely, instructive and entertaining' - Daniel Kahneman, bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow 'Wise, vivid and unforgettable' - Tim Harford, bestselling author of The Undercover Economist Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant new reality. Think of how Apple's iPod went from a project with a single employee to an enormously successful product launch in eleven months. But such successes are the exception. Consider how London's Crossrail project delivered five years late and billions over budget. More modest endeavours, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly fail. Why? Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life's work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg. In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors that lead projects to fail, and the research-based principles that will make yours succeed: - Understand your odds. If you don't know them, you won't win. - Plan slow, act fast. Getting to the action quick feels right. But it's wrong. - Think right to left. Start with your goal, then identify the steps to get there. - Find your Lego. Big is best built from small. - Master the unknown unknowns. Most think they can't, so they fail. Flyvbjerg shows how you can. Full of vivid examples ranging from the building of the Sydney Opera House to the making of the latest Pixar blockbusters, How Big Things Get Done reveals how to get any ambitious project done - on time and on budget.

Lessons from the World's Top Project Manager

“Why do big projects go wrong so often, and are there any lessons you can use when renovating your kitchen? Bent Flyvbjerg is the ‘megaproject’ expert and Dan Gardner brings the storytelling skills to How Big Things Get Done, with examples ranging from a Jimi Hendrix studio to the Sydney Opera House.”—Financial Times “Entertaining . . . There are lessons here for managers of all stripes.”—The Economist A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR: Economist, Financial Times, CEO Magazine, Morningstar Finalist for the Porchlight Business Book Award, the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award, and the Inc. Non-Obvious Book Award Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how the Empire State Building went from a sketch to the jewel of New York’s skyline in twenty-one months, or how Apple’s iPod went from a project with a single employee to a product launch in eleven months. These are wonderful stories. But most of the time big visions turn into nightmares. Remember Boston’s “Big Dig”? Almost every sizeable city in the world has such a fiasco in its backyard. In fact, no less than 92% of megaprojects come in over budget or over schedule, or both. The cost of California’s high-speed rail project soared from $33 billion to $100 billon—and won’t even go where promised. More modest endeavors, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly stall out. But why do some projects fail? Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life’s work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg, dubbed “the world’s leading megaproject expert.” In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors in judgment and decision-making that lead projects, both big and small, to fail, and the research-based principles that will make you succeed with yours. For example: • Understand your odds. If you don’t know them, you won’t win. • Plan slow, act fast. Getting to the action quick feels right. But it’s wrong. • Think right to left. Start with your goal, then identify the steps to get there. • Find your Lego. Big is best built from small. • Be a team maker. You won’t succeed without an “us.” • Master the unknown unknowns. Most think they can’t, so they fail. Flyvbjerg shows how you can. • Know that your biggest risk is you. Full of vivid examples ranging from the building of the Sydney Opera House, to the making of Pixar blockbusters, to a home renovation in Brooklyn gone awry, How Big Things Get Done reveals how to get any ambitious project done—on time and on budget.

The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between

Los secretos para planificar y llevar a cabo con éxito proyectos de cualquier envergadura, por el mayor experto munidal en megaproyectos. Nada es más inspirador que una ambiciosa visión que se convierte en una realidad triunfante: el Empire State Building pasó de ser un boceto a cambiar el skyline de Nueva York en tan solo veintiún meses. Sin embargo, la mayoría de las veces las grandes visiones se convierten en auténticas pesadillas: según las estadísticas, un asombroso 92 por ciento de los megaproyectos superan el presupuesto o el cronograma, o ambas cosas. Incluso los esfuerzos más modestos, como emprender un pequeño negocio, suelen fracasar. ¿Por qué? El profesor de la Universidad de Oxford Bent Flyvbjerg ha dedicado su vida a comprender qué distingue a esos pocos triunfos entre tantos fracasos. En Cómo hacer grandes cosas identifica los errores de juicio y la toma de decisiones equivocadas que llevan al naufragio de los proyectos, ya sean grandes o pequeños. Y muestra cómo tus propios proyectos tienen más posibilidades de éxito si aplicas los principios que él mismo ha investigado durante décadas. Repleto de inolvidables ejemplos que van desde la construcción de la Ópera de Sídney y la creación de los últimos éxitos de taquilla de Pixar, hasta la desastrosa reforma de una casa en Brooklyn, este libro es una guía indispensable para cualquier persona que planee un proyecto ambicioso. Reseñas: «Un libro imprescindible». Frank Gehry, Premio Pritzker «Nadie ha investigado los errores de planificación con más profundidad que Bent Flyvbjerg». Nassim Nicholas Taleb, autor de El cisne negro «Una sabiay vívida combinación de narración inspiradora con décadas de investigación práctica y experiencia». Tim Harford, autor de E l economista camuflado «Este libro contiene lecciones para todo tipo de profesionales». The Economist «Ignora este libro bajo tu propio riesgo». The New York Times «Lleno de deliciosas anécdotas sobre gestiones desastrosas de proyectos… y valiosos consejos». Financial Times «Un libro que debería leer cualquier legislador, concejal o ejecutivo». The Wall Street Journal «Cómo hacer grandes cosas no se basa en meras anécdotas; destila décadas de investigación sistemática de más dieciséis mil proyectos llevados a cabo en todo el mundo. El resultado es un patrón nítido de razones sorprendentes por las que casi todos los proyectos humanos fallan como se esperaba, y una hoja de ruta para que los afortunados lectores eviten fracasar». Hans Rosling, autor de Factfulness

Cómo Hacer Grandes Cosas

In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those politicians, activists, and the media who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about "the black box" of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we're bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world.Riskis cutting-edge reading. From the Hardcover edition.

Captain James Campbell is on the wagon these days. He is the head of an elite team of Vampire hunters and he picked the perfect time to quit drinking. Luther Crowley doesn't have that problem, he helps his best friend Campbell fight the undead, never quite kicking the habit himself. Liam is your typical nerdy twenty-something, looking for a change in his life. Killing Vampires is their business, and business is Boomin' But one stormy night changes everything, and they find themselves scattered and helpless from a new threat, somewhere out in the shadows, and from within...

Hair of the Dog

Optimist Yayın Grubu’nun Şubat ayı kitaplarından Süpertahmin iş yaşamında, ürün lansmanında, günlük hayatta, siyasette ve hemen her alanda neler olabileceğini önceden düşünüp doğru bilmeye yönlendiren ilginç bir kitap. Philip Tetlock ABD hükümeti tarafından desteklenen The Good Judgement Project (İyi Muhakeme Projesi) kapsamında aralarında dansçılar, film yapımcıları, çiftçiler, emekli boru hattı döşeme uzmanları gibi çok farklı konularda bilgi sahibi on binlerce kişiye küresel olaylarla ilgili tahmin yaptırdı. Her biri gönüllü olan bu kişilerin bazıları muazzam enformasyona sahip kuruluşları ve analistleri aşan bir tahmin performansı gösterdi. Onlar, “süper tahminci” idiler. Pennsylvania Üniversitesi profesörlerinden ve ünlü Wharton İşletme Okulu siyaset bilimi kürsüsü sahibi Philip E. Tetlock ile gazeteci yazar Dan Gardner’le birlikte kaleme aldıkları bu kitap süper tahmincilerden neler öğrenebileceğimizi anlatıyor. Doğru tahminde bulunmanın güçlü bilgisayarlar ve gizemli yöntemler gerektirmediğini, farklı kaynaklardan kanıt toplamakla, olasılığa dayalı düşünmekle, ekipler halinde çalışmakla, işaretlere dikkat etmekle ve en önemlisi de hatayı kabul edip izlenen yolu değiştirmekle mümkün olacağını gösteriyor.

Süpertahmin

Umění a věda předpovídání budoucnosti

Superprognózy

Cu toții am avea de câștigat dacă am putea vedea în viitor, fie că este vorba de bursă, de politică, de lansarea unor produse sau, pur şi simplu, de planificarea unui meniu săptămânal. Din păcate, suntem, în general, nişte prognosticieni care lasă mult de dorit. Philip Tetlock şi-a dedicat 10 ani încercării de a înţelege motivele pentru care, totuși, unii dintre noi au o putere reală de predicție. Ce îi face pe aceștia să fie buni prognosticieni? Poate fi acest talent învăţat? Tetlock şi Gardner ne arată cum să învăţăm de la acest grup de elită. Împletind poveşti despre predicţii de succes (capturarea lui Osama bin Laden) sau eşuate (Golful Porcilor) cu interviuri luate unor personalități de rang înalt, de la David Petraeus la Robert Rubin, cei doi autori demonstrează că, pentru o prognoză bună, nu ai nevoie de computere puternice sau de metode secrete. Trebuie doar să ştii să aduni dovezi din diverse surse, să gândeşti probabilistic, să lucrezi în echipă, să ţii socoteala şi să fii dispus să-ți admiţi greşelile şi să schimbi macazul. Superprognoze oferă prima modalitate demonstrabil eficientă de îmbunătăţire a abilităţii noastre de prezicere a viitorului – fie că e vorba de afaceri, finanţe, politică sau de preocupări cotidiene –, devenind, prin aceasta, o lucrare modernă de referință. PHILIP E. TETLOCK este profesor la University of Pennsylvania, ținând cursuri de psihologie și de științe politice și la Wharton School of Business. Conduce împreună cu soția lui, Barbara Mellers, Proiectul Bunei Judecăți, o cercetare asupra prognozării desfăşurată pe mai mulţi ani. Philip Tetlock este și autorul volumelor Expert Political Judgment şi Counterfactual Thought Experiment în World Politics, aceasta din urmă scrisă în colaborare cu Aaron Belkin. DAN GARDNER este jurnalist şi autorul cărţilor Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear şi Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.

Superprognoze

Der Psychologe und Politikwissenschaftler Philip Tetlock gibt in seinem leichtverständlichen Wissenschafts-Sachbuch ›Superforecasting. Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose‹ eine Anleitung für treffsichere Prognosen in einer unsicheren Zeit. »Superforecaster« sind Menschen, denen erstaunlich gute Vorhersagen in allen Bereichen gelingen – bessere als den Experten. Was macht sie so besonders? In einem großangelegten Forschungsprojekt ist Philip Tetlock dieser Frage nachgegangen und hat das Erfolgsgeheimnis der Superprognostiker gelüftet. Anhand anschaulicher und unterhaltsamer Beispiele zeigt er, wie wir alle bessere Prognosen für unser Leben machen können – denn wenn wir darüber nachdenken, eine neue Stelle zu suchen, zu heiraten, ein Haus zu kaufen, Geld zu investieren, ein Produkt auf den Markt zu bringen oder uns zur Ruhe zu setzen, dann hängen unsere Entscheidungen davon ab, was wir von der Zukunft erwarten. Ein wichtiges und nützliches Buch, um sich in einer immer komplexeren Welt besser zurechtzufinden.

Dan Gardner

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