Bent Flyvbjerg

Dan Gardner

The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything in Between

How Big Things Get Done

Why Expert Predictions Fail-- and why We Believe Them Anyway

Future Babble

Philip E. Tetlock

The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting

Todas as nossas decisões envolvem prognósticos sobre o futuro - agimos com base em previsões implícitas do que provavelmente vai acontecer. O problemaé que costumamos errar muito mais do que acertar. Em um estudo que durou vinte anos, o psicólogo e cientista social Philip Tetlock demonstrou que, ao prever o futuro, um especialista é apenas um pouco melhor do que um leigo. No entanto, com base nos resultados de uma pesquisa inovadora, Tetlock provou que alguns indivíduos têm uma extraordinária habilidade de previsão 60% mais precisa que a média. Superprevisões revela os segredos desse grupo de elite e oferece conselhos práticos sobre como podemos usá-los em benefício próprio.

Superprevisões

The secrets to successfully planning and delivering ambitious, complex projects on any scale—from home renovation to space exploration—by the world's leading expert on megaprojects. Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how the Empire State Building went from a sketch to the jewel of New York's skyline in twenty-one months, or how Apple’s iPod went from a project with a single employee to a product launch in eleven months. These are wonderful stories. But most of the time big visions turn into nightmares. Remember Boston’s “Big Dig”? Almost every sizeable city in the world has such a fiasco in its backyard. In fact, no less than 92% of megaprojects come in over budget or over schedule, or both. The cost of California’s high-speed rail project soared from $33 billion to $100 billon—and won’t even go where promised. More modest endeavors, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly fail. Why? Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life’s work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg, dubbed “the world’s leading megaproject expert.” In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors in judgment and decision-making that lead projects, both big and small, to fail, and the research-based principles that will make you succeed with yours. For example: Understand your odds. If you don't know them, you won't win. Plan slow, act fast. Getting to the action quick feels right. But it's wrong. Think right to left. Start with your goal, then identify the steps to get there. Find your Lego. Big is best built from small. Be a team maker. You won't succeed without an "us." Master the unknown unknowns. Most think they can't, so they fail. Flyvbjerg shows how you can. Know that your biggest risk is you. Full of vivid examples ranging from the building of the Sydney Opera House, to the making of the latest Pixar blockbusters, to a home renovation in Brooklyn gone awry, How Big Things Get Done reveals how to get any ambitious project done—on time and on budget.

The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between

In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading.

Why We Fear the Things We Shouldn't -- and Put Ourselves in Greater Danger

Risk

In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those politicians, activists, and the media who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about "the black box" of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we're bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world.Riskis cutting-edge reading. From the Hardcover edition.

The Science and Politics of Fear

Captain James Campbell is on the wagon these days. He is the head of an elite team of Vampire hunters and he picked the perfect time to quit drinking. Luther Crowley doesn't have that problem, he helps his best friend Campbell fight the undead, never quite kicking the habit himself. Liam is your typical nerdy twenty-something, looking for a change in his life. Killing Vampires is their business, and business is Boomin' But one stormy night changes everything, and they find themselves scattered and helpless from a new threat, somewhere out in the shadows, and from within...

Hair of the Dog

Philip Tetlock

Optimist Yayın Grubu’nun Şubat ayı kitaplarından Süpertahmin iş yaşamında, ürün lansmanında, günlük hayatta, siyasette ve hemen her alanda neler olabileceğini önceden düşünüp doğru bilmeye yönlendiren ilginç bir kitap. Philip Tetlock ABD hükümeti tarafından desteklenen The Good Judgement Project (İyi Muhakeme Projesi) kapsamında aralarında dansçılar, film yapımcıları, çiftçiler, emekli boru hattı döşeme uzmanları gibi çok farklı konularda bilgi sahibi on binlerce kişiye küresel olaylarla ilgili tahmin yaptırdı. Her biri gönüllü olan bu kişilerin bazıları muazzam enformasyona sahip kuruluşları ve analistleri aşan bir tahmin performansı gösterdi. Onlar, “süper tahminci” idiler. Pennsylvania Üniversitesi profesörlerinden ve ünlü Wharton İşletme Okulu siyaset bilimi kürsüsü sahibi Philip E. Tetlock ile gazeteci yazar Dan Gardner’le birlikte kaleme aldıkları bu kitap süper tahmincilerden neler öğrenebileceğimizi anlatıyor. Doğru tahminde bulunmanın güçlü bilgisayarlar ve gizemli yöntemler gerektirmediğini, farklı kaynaklardan kanıt toplamakla, olasılığa dayalı düşünmekle, ekipler halinde çalışmakla, işaretlere dikkat etmekle ve en önemlisi de hatayı kabul edip izlenen yolu değiştirmekle mümkün olacağını gösteriyor.

Dan Gardner

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