Forrest E. Morgan

Paul DeLuca

Martin C. Libicki

David R. Frelinger

Eric Heginbotham

Michael Nixon

Jacob L. Heim

Jeff Hagen

Sheng Li

Jeffrey Engstrom

David A. Shlapak

Burgess Laird

Kyle Brady

Lyle J. Morris

A RAND study analyzed Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) from 1996 to 2017, finding that trends in most, but not all, areas run strongly against the United States. While U.S. aggregate power remains greater than China’s, distance and geography affect outcomes. China is capable of challenging U.S. military dominance on its immediate periphery—and its reach is likely to grow in the years ahead.

Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017

The U.S.-China Military Scorecard

Brian A. Jackson

Robert W. Button

Michael J. Lostumbo

Changes in technology and adversary behavior will invariably produce new threats that must be assessed by defense and homeland security planners. An example of such a novel threat is the use of cruise missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by terrorist groups. Individual threats cannot be assessed in isolation, however, since adversaries always have many options for staging attacks. To examine this threat, RAND utilized a ?red analysis of alternatives? approach, wherein the benefits, costs, and risks of different options are considered from the point of view of a potential adversary. For several types of attacks, the suitability of these systems was compared against other options. This approach can help defense planners understand how the capabilities that different attack modes provide address key adversary operational problems. Given the insights this analysis produced about when these systems would likely be preferred by an attacker, RAND explored defensive options to address the threat. UAVs and cruise missiles represent a ?niche threat? within a larger threat context; therefore, defenses were sought that provide common protection against both this and other asymmetric threats. The monograph concludes with a discussion of cross-cutting lessons about this threat and the assessment of novel threats in general.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Cruise Missiles

Evaluating Novel Threats to the Homeland

John Gordon IV

James Bonomo

John IV Gordon

Giacomo Bergamo

Examines how terrorists make technology choices and how the United States can discourage terrorists' use of advanced conventional weapons. Concludes that the United States should urgently start discussions with key producer nations and also decide on an architecture needed to impose technical controls on new mortar systems that should enter development soon.

Limiting Terrorist Use of Advanced Conventional Weapons

Stealing the Sword

David R. Frelinger

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