Dick R. Wittink

David Bruce Montgomery

Proceedings of the First ORSA/TIMS Special Interest Conference on Market Measurement and Analysis

Michel Wedel

Peter S.H. Leeflang

Philippe A. Naert

This book is about marketing models and the process of model building. Our primary focus is on models that can be used by managers to support marketing decisions. It has long been known that simple models usually outperform judgments in predicting outcomes in a wide variety of contexts. For example, models of judgments tend to provide better forecasts of the outcomes than the judgments themselves (because the model eliminates the noise in judgments). And since judgments never fully reflect the complexities of the many forces that influence outcomes, it is easy to see why models of actual outcomes should be very attractive to (marketing) decision makers. Thus, appropriately constructed models can provide insights about structural relations between marketing variables. Since models explicate the relations, both the process of model building and the model that ultimately results can improve the quality of marketing decisions. Managers often use rules of thumb for decisions. For example, a brand manager will have defined a specific set of alternative brands as the competitive set within a product category. Usually this set is based on perceived similarities in brand characteristics, advertising messages, etc. If a new marketing initiative occurs for one of the other brands, the brand manager will have a strong inclination to react. The reaction is partly based on the manager's desire to maintain some competitive parity in the mar keting variables.

Building Models for Marketing Decisions

With advances in information technology and expertise in modeling, IRI introduced model-based services in the US that explain and predict essential parts of the marketplace. ACNielsen followed, and marketing researchers have been developing increasingly valid, useful and relevant models of marketplace behavior ever since. Models that provide information about the sensitivity of market behavior to marketing activities such as advertising, pricing, promotions and distribution are now routinely used by managers for the identification of changes in marketing programs that can improve brand performances. Building Models for Marketing Decisions, Second Edition describes up-dated marketing models that managers can use as an aid in decision making.

Dick R. Wittink

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