National Bureau of Economic Research

G. M. Heal

Jisung Park

Does temperature affect economic performance? Has temperature always affected social welfare through its impact on physical and cognitive function? While many studies have explored the indirect links between climate and welfare (e.g. agricultural yield, violent conflict, or sea-level rise), few address the possibility of direct impacts operating through human physiology. This paper presents a model of labor supply under thermal stress, building on a longstanding physiological literature linking thermal stress to health and task performance. A key prediction is that effective labor supply - defined as a composite of labor hours, task performance, and effort - is decreasing in temperature deviations from the biological optimum. We use country-level panel data on population-weighted average temperature and income (1950-2005), to illustrate the potential magnitude of the effect. Using a fixed effects estimation strategy, we find that hotter-than-average years are associated with lower output per capita for already hot countries and higher output per capita for cold countries: approximately 3%-4% in both directions. We then use household data on air conditioning and heating expenditures from the US to provide further evidence in support of a physiologically based causal mechanism. This more direct causal link between climate and social welfare has important implications for both the economics of climate change and comparative development.

Temperature, Physiology & the Wealth of Nations

Feeling the Heat

We review recent literature on the effect of temperature stress on economic activity, operating through basic human physiology. There is growing evidence from both micro and macro studies of causal impacts of extreme temperature on health, labor supply, and labor productivity, driven in large part by extreme heat stress. There is also a suggestion of an optimal temperature zone for economic activity, though empirical research on potential adaptive responses remains thin. This emerging literature has implications for the consequence of climate change, and may also provide a partial explanation of why hot countries are generally poorer than temperate or cold ones.

Temperature Stress and the Direct Impacts of Climate Change

Goldilocks Economies?

Professor Geoffrey Heal

"A balanced and optimistic account of how companies can benefit from the Corporate Social Responsibility movement. Geoffrey Heal makes a persuasive argument that doing the right thing can also boost the bottom line"--Joseph E. Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate in economics.

Corporate Social Responsibility and the Bottom Line

When Principles Pay

P. S. Dasgupta

A book on the economics of exhaustible resources requires no justification. A long book does. The purist will find disquieting our two-asset, constant population model with which we analyse growth possibilities in an economy with exhaustible resources.

G. M. Heal

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