Howard Raiffa

Ralph L. Keeney

John S. Hammond

Offers readers an easy-to-follow process to improve ways to make business decisions, family decisions, and personal decisions

A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions

Smart Choices

R. Duncan Luce

"The best book available for non-mathematicians." — Contemporary Psychology. Superb nontechnical introduction to game theory and related disciplines, primarily as applied to the social sciences. Clear, comprehensive coverage of utility theory, 2-person zero-sum games, 2-person non-zero-sum games, n-person games, individual and group decision-making, much more. Appendixes. Bibliography. Graphs and figures.

Introduction and Critical Survey

Games and Decisions

A study of the mechanics, practice, and application of negotiation explains the processes of negotiation and offers practical instruction in developing and improving negotiation skills

The Art and Science of Negotiation

Become confident in your choices. Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa—experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems—offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: • Evaluate your plans • Break your potential decision into its key elements • Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals • Apply systematic thinking • Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you—or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.

A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions

Hammond, John S.

This masterly book substantially extends Howard Raiffa’s earlier classic, The Art and Science of Negotiation. It does so by incorporating three additional supporting strands of inquiry: individual decision analysis, judgmental decision making, and game theory. Each strand is introduced and used in analyzing negotiations. The book starts by considering how analytically minded parties can generate joint gains and distribute them equitably by negotiating with full, open, truthful exchanges. The book then examines models that disengage step by step from that ideal. It also shows how a neutral outsider (intervenor) can help all negotiators by providing joint, neutral analysis of their problem. Although analytical in its approach—building from simple hypothetical examples—the book can be understood by those with only a high school background in mathematics. It therefore will have a broad relevance for both the theory and practice of negotiation analysis as it is applied to disputes that range from those between family members, business partners, and business competitors to those involving labor and management, environmentalists and developers, and nations.

The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making

Negotiation Analysis

Frank P Ramsey Professor of Managerial Economics (Emeritus) Howard Raiffa

John Pratt

Robert Schlaifer

The Bayesian revolution in statistics—where statistics is integrated with decision making in areas such as management, public policy, engineering, and clinical medicine—is here to stay. Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory states the case and in a self-contained, comprehensive way shows how the approach is operational and relevant for real-world decision making under uncertainty. Starting with an extensive account of the foundations of decision theory, the authors develop the intertwining concepts of subjective probability and utility. They then systematically and comprehensively examine the Bernoulli, Poisson, and Normal (univariate and multivariate) data generating processes. For each process they consider how prior judgments about the uncertain parameters of the process are modified given the results of statistical sampling, and they investigate typical decision problems in which the main sources of uncertainty are the population parameters. They also discuss the value of sampling information and optimal sample sizes given sampling costs and the economics of the terminal decision problems. Unlike most introductory texts in statistics, Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory integrates statistical inference with decision making and discusses real-world actions involving economic payoffs and risks. After developing the rationale and demonstrating the power and relevance of the subjective, decision approach, the text also examines and critiques the limitations of the objective, classical approach.

Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory

Decision Analysis

"In the field of statistical decision theory, Raiffa and Schlaifer have sought to develop new analytic techniques by which the modern theory of utility and subjective probability can actually be applied to the economic analysis of typical sampling problems." —From the foreword to their classic work Applied Statistical Decision Theory. First published in the 1960s through Harvard University and MIT Press, the book is now offered in a new paperback edition from Wiley

Applied Statistical Decision Theory

John W. Pratt

Lectures on Negotiation Analysis

John Winsor Pratt

Robert O. Schlaifer

They then examine the Bernoulli, Poisson, and Normal (univariate and multivariate) data generating processes.

Superb non-technical introduction to game theory, primarily applied to social sciences. Clear, comprehensive coverage of utility theory, 2-person zero-sum games, 2-person non-zero-sum games, n-person games, individual and group decision-making, more. Bibliography.

David E. Bell

Amos Tversky

A compilation of different approaches--normative, descriptive,and prescriptive--develops this integrated analysis of decision-making that emphasizes the contributions of various disciplinary interests.

Howard Raiffa

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