Igor Linkov

Todd S. Bridges

Rising sea levels and altered weather patterns are expected to significantly alter coastal and inland environments for humans, infrastructure and ecosystems. Potential land-use changes and population increases, coupled with uncertain predictions for sea level rise and storm frequency/intensity represent a significant planning challenge. While efforts to mitigate climate change continue, plans must be made to adapt to the risks that climate change poses to humans, infrastructure, and ecosystems alike. This book addresses integrated environmental assessment and management as part of the nexus of climate change adaptation. Risk analysis has emerged as a useful approach to guide assessment, communication and management of security risks. However, with respect to climate change, an integrated, multi-criteria, multi-hazard, risk-informed decision framework is desirable for evaluating adaptation strategies. The papers in Part 1 summarize societal and political needs for climate change adaptation. Part 2 includes papers summarizing the state of the art in climate change adaptation. Three further parts cover: the process of change in coastal regions, in inland regions, and, finally, the potential challenges to homeland security for national governments. Each of these parts reviews achievements, identifies gaps in current knowledge, and suggests research priorities.

Global Change and Local Adaptation

Climate

William R. Schell

Concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere have increased dramatically over the last century and many of these changes are attributable to anthropogenic activities. The influence of acid rain has been well studied, but there has been no extensive exploration of other pollutants, such as toxic chemicals, heavy metals and radionuclides. Natural ecosystems, especially forests, tend to accumulate many of these pollutants which subsequently can affect ecosystem health. These contaminants may be very damaging to the environment in Eastern Europe, where the rapid disappearance of forest is the result not only of contamination but also of poor forest management practices. The current book is designed to reduce the uncertainty in our current knowledge of forest radioecology. The three topics it embraces are (a) Modelling, (b) Measurements and Data, and (c) Countermeasures and Risk Assessment.

Recent Developments in Risk Identification and Future Perspectives

Contaminated Forests

Richard J. Wenning

Gregory A. Kiker

This book offers a state-of-the-science approach to current environmental security threats and infrastructure vulnerabilities. It emphasizes beliefs that the convergence of seemingly disparate viewpoints and often uncertain and limited information is possible only by using one or more available risk assessment methodologies and decision-making tools such as risk assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).

Managing Critical Infrastructure Risks

Benjamin D. Trump

This book offers a comprehensive view on resilience based upon state-of-the-science theories and methodological applications that resilience may fill. Specifically, this text provides a compendium of knowledge on the theory, methods, and practice of resilience across a variety of country and case contexts, and demonstrates how a resilience-based approach can help further improved infrastructure, vibrant societies, and sustainable environments and ecologies, among many others. Resilience is a term with thousands of years of history. Only recently has resilience been applied to the management of complex interconnected systems, yet its impact as a governing philosophy and an engineering practice has been pronounced. Colloquially, resilience has been used as a synonym for ‘bouncing back’. Philosophically and methodologically, however, it is much more. In a world defined by interconnected and interdependent systems such as water, food, energy, transportation, and the internet, a sudden and unexpected disruption to one critical system can lead to significant challenges for many others. The Science and Practice of Resilience is beneficial for those seeking to gain a rich knowledge of the resilience world, as well as for practitioners looking for methods and tools by which resilience may be applied in real-world contexts.

The Science and Practice of Resilience

José Manuel Palma-Oliveira

This volume addresses the challenges associated with methodology and application of risk and resilience science and practice to address emerging threats in environmental, cyber, infrastructure and other domains. The book utilizes the collective expertise of scholars and experts in industry, government and academia in the new and emerging field of resilience in order to provide a more comprehensive and universal understanding of how resilience methodology can be applied in various disciplines and applications. This book advocates for a systems-driven view of resilience in applications ranging from cyber security to ecology to social action, and addresses resilience-based management in infrastructure, cyber, social domains and methodology and tools. Risk and Resilience has been written to open up a transparent dialog on resilience management for scientists and practitioners in all relevant academic disciplines and can be used as supplement in teaching risk assessment and management courses.

Methods and Application in Environment, Cyber and Social Domains

Resilience and Risk

Abou Bakr Ramadan

Decision making in environmental projects is typically a complex and confusing process characterized by trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts. Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) is a methodology applied to facilitate decision making when various activities compete for limited resources. CRA has become an increasingly accepted research tool and has helped to characterize environmental profiles and priorities on the regional and national level. CRA may be considered as part of the more general but as yet quite academic field of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Considerable research in the area of MCDA has made available methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to multi-criteria problems, but its applications, especially in environmental areas, are still limited. The papers show that the use of comparative risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentally sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental challenges.

Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental Decision Making

Benoit Morel

The concept of “environmental security” has emerged as one basis for understanding international conflicts. This phrase can mean a variety of things. It can signify security issues stemming from environmental concerns or conflicting needs, or it can mean that the environment is treated as a resource for the long term, and the question is what should be done today to preserve the quality of the environment in the future. In the same way that energy security is about ensuring access to energy for the long run, it can also mean that pressing environmental concerns create a situation where different countries and communities are forced to collaboratively design a unified response, even if cooperation is not generally in the logic of their relations. Over the last several years, the authors of this book and their colleagues have tried to demonstrate the power of risk assessment and decision analysis as valuable tools that decision makers should use for a broad range of environmental problems, including environmental security. Risk analysis is almost more a state of mind or a way of looking at problems than it is a kind of algorithm or a set of recipes. It projects a kind of rationality on problems and forces a certain degree of quantitative rigor, as opposed to the all too common tendency of making environmental recommendations based on anecdotal evidence.

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workhop on The Role of Risk Assessment in Environmental Security and Emergency Preparedness in the Mediterranean Region, held in Eilat, Israel, April 15-18, 2004

Environmental Security and Environmental Management: The Role of Risk Assessment

Elizabeth A. Ferguson

Victor S. Magar

Decision-making tools are needed to support environmental management in an increasingly global economy. Addressing threats and identifying actions to mitigate those threats necessitates an understanding of the basic risk assessment paradigm and the tools of risk analysis to assess, interpret, and communicate risks. It also requires modification of the risk paradigm itself to incorporate a complex array of quantitative and qualitative information that shapes the unique political and ecological challenges of different countries and regions around the world. This book builds a foundation to characterize and assess a broad range of human and ecological stressors, and risk management approaches to address those stressors, using chemical risk assessment methods and multi-criteria decision analysis tools. Chapters discuss the current state-of-knowledge with regard to emerging stressors and risk management, focusing on the adequacy of available systematic, quantitative tools to guide vulnerability and threat assessments, evaluate the consequences of different events and responses, and support decision-making. This book opens a dialogue on aspects of risk assessment and decision analysis that apply to real-time (immediate) and deliberative (long-term) risk management processes.

Application to Emerging Stressors

Real-Time and Deliberative Decision Making

Alexander Kott

This book introduces fundamental concepts of cyber resilience, drawing expertise from academia, industry, and government. Resilience is defined as the ability to recover from or easily adjust to shocks and stresses. Unlike the concept of security - which is often and incorrectly conflated with resilience -- resilience refers to the system's ability to recover or regenerate its performance after an unexpected impact produces a degradation in its performance. A clear understanding of distinction between security, risk and resilience is important for developing appropriate management of cyber threats. The book presents insightful discussion of the most current technical issues in cyber resilience, along with relevant methods and procedures. Practical aspects of current cyber resilience practices and techniques are described as they are now, and as they are likely to remain in the near term. The bulk of the material is presented in the book in a way that is easily accessible to non-specialists. Logical, consistent, and continuous discourse covering all key topics relevant to the field will be of use as teaching material as well as source of emerging scholarship in the field. A typical chapter provides introductory, tutorial-like material, detailed examples, in-depth elaboration of a selected technical approach, and a concise summary of key ideas.

Cyber Resilience of Systems and Networks

Gordon Butte

Daniel Kovacs

Matthew D. Wood

Sarah Thorne

This book provides an easy-to-read, user-oriented introduction to mental models research and Mental Modeling TechnologyTM. Mental models are powerful influences human behavior. The book offers insight from the developers and most experienced application professionals of a widely proven methodology for understanding and influencing human judgment, decision making and behavior. The case studies show examples of the methodological concepts in their application context. It is one of the most comprehensive collections of cases focused on government needs of any similar qualitative analysis approach. Finally, it presents an introduction to software tools and tutorials that enable readers to use the approach for their own research needs.

Igor Linkov

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