Forrest E. Morgan

Paul DeLuca

Martin C. Libicki

David R. Frelinger

Eric Heginbotham

Michael Nixon

Jacob L. Heim

Jeff Hagen

Sheng Li

Jeffrey Engstrom

David A. Shlapak

Burgess Laird

Kyle Brady

Lyle J. Morris

A RAND study analyzed Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) from 1996 to 2017, finding that trends in most, but not all, areas run strongly against the United States. While U.S. aggregate power remains greater than China’s, distance and geography affect outcomes. China is capable of challenging U.S. military dominance on its immediate periphery—and its reach is likely to grow in the years ahead.

Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017

The U.S.-China Military Scorecard

Tai Ming Cheung

Scott Warren Harold

Michael S. Chase

Kristen A. Gunness

Susan Puska

Samuel K. Berkowitz

Through extensive primary source analysis and independent analysis, this report seeks to answer a number of important questions regarding the state of China’s armed forces. The authors found that the PLA is keenly aware of its many weaknesses and is vigorously striving to correct them. Although it is only natural to focus on the PLA’s growing capabilities, understanding the PLA’s weaknesses—and its self-assessments—is no less important.

Assessing the Weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)

China’s Incomplete Military Transformation

Jeffrey Engstrom

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