Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

From terrorist attacks to big money jackpots, Struck by Lightning deconstructs the odds and oddities of chance, examining both the relevant and irreverent role of randomness in our everyday lives. Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty's dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we'll be that one in a million statistic. We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty. A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can't hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthal-an improbably talented math professor-explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.

The Curious World of Probabilities

Struck by Lightning

A basic understanding of the probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, help us to make sense of situations, avoid unnecessary fear, seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can't hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control.

El sorprendente mundo de las probabilidades / The Curious World of Probabilities

A cara o cruz / Struck by Lightning

For readers of Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Daniel Levitin with a twist of Bill Bryson—a lighthearted, entertaining and fateful exploration of luck in everyday life For centuries, people around the world have prayed for good luck and warded against bad. Every language features a good luck greeting. Sailors have long looked for an albatross on the horizon as a symbol of good fortune. Jade, clovers, rabbits’ feet, wishbones: these items have lined the pockets of those seeking good fortune. For some, it’s bad luck to walk under a ladder, to enter and leave a home through different doors or to say “Macbeth” in a theatre. But is there such a thing as luck, or does luck often just explain common sense? Don’t walk under a ladder because, well, that’s just dangerous. You won the lottery not because of any supernatural force but because a random number generator selected the same numbers that you picked out at the corner store. You run into a neighbour from your street on the other side of the world: Random chance or pure fate? (Or does it depend on how much you like your neighbour?) Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, author of the bestseller Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities, was born on a Friday the thirteenth, a fact that he discovered long after he had become one of the world’s pre-eminent statisticians. Had he been living ignorantly and innocently under an unlucky cloud for all those years? Or is thirteen just another number? As a scientist and a man of reason, Rosenthal has long considered the value of luck, good and bad, seeking to measure chance and hope in formulas scratched out on chalkboards. In Knock on Wood, Rosenthal, with great humour and irreverence, divines the world of luck, fate and chance, putting his considerable scientific acumen to the test in deducing whether luck is real or the mere stuff of superstition.

Luck, Chance, and the Meaning of Everything

Knock on Wood

Michael J. Evans

Unlike traditional introductory math/stat textbooks, Probability and Statistics: The Science of Uncertainty brings a modern flavor based on incorporating the computer to the course and an integrated approach to inference. From the start the book integrates simulations into its theoretical coverage, and emphasizes the use of computer-powered computation throughout.* Math and science majors with just one year of calculus can use this text and experience a refreshing blend of applications and theory that goes beyond merely mastering the technicalities. They'll get a thorough grounding in probability theory, and go beyond that to the theory of statistical inference and its applications. An integrated approach to inference is presented that includes the frequency approach as well as Bayesian methodology. Bayesian inference is developed as a logical extension of likelihood methods. A separate chapter is devoted to the important topic of model checking and this is applied in the context of the standard applied statistical techniques. Examples of data analyses using real-world data are presented throughout the text. A final chapter introduces a number of the most important stochastic process models using elementary methods. *Note: An appendix in the book contains Minitab code for more involved computations. The code can be used by students as templates for their own calculations. If a software package like Minitab is used with the course then no programming is required by the students.

The Science of Uncertainty

Probability and Statistics

Unlike traditional introductory math/stat textbooks, Probability and Statistics: The Science of Uncertainty brings a modern flavor to the course, incorporating the computer and offering an integrated approach to inference that includes the frequency approach and the Bayesian inference. From the start the book integrates simulations into its theoretical coverage, and emphasizes the use of computer-powered computation throughout. Math and science majors with just one year of calculus can use this text and experience a refreshing blend of applications and theory that goes beyond merely mastering the technicalities. The new edition includes a number of features designed to make the material more accessible and level-appropriate to the students taking this course today.

Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

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