Jennifer Kavanagh

Over the past two decades, national political and civil discourse in the United States has been characterized by "Truth Decay," defined as a set of four interrelated trends: an increasing disagreement about facts and analytical interpretations of facts and data; a blurring of the line between opinion and fact; an increase in the relative volume, and resulting influence, of opinion and personal experience over fact; and lowered trust in formerly respected sources of factual information. These trends have many causes, but this report focuses on four: characteristics of human cognitive processing, such as cognitive bias; changes in the information system, including social media and the 24-hour news cycle; competing demands on the education system that diminish time spent on media literacy and critical thinking; and polarization, both political and demographic. The most damaging consequences of Truth Decay include the erosion of civil discourse, political paralysis, alienation and disengagement of individuals from political and civic institutions, and uncertainty over national policy. This report explores the causes and consequences of Truth Decay and how they are interrelated, and examines past eras of U.S. history to identify evidence of Truth Decay's four trends and observe similarities with and differences from the current period. It also outlines a research agenda, a strategy for investigating the causes of Truth Decay and determining what can be done to address its causes and consequences.

an initial exploration of the diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life

Truth decay

Practical Mystics

What if the facts on which we base our lives are shown to be unreliable? What if our expectations are confounded? What if we let go of those assumptions and expectations? What if we let go of our familiar, habitual ways of thinking? What if we let go of the very need to know? Unknowing is at the centre of spiritual life. It is only by creating a space in which anything can happen that we allow God to speak; only by stepping back that we allow space for that unpredictable Spirit that brings us gifts beyond any of our imaginings... "God dwells only where man steps back to give him room."

A Little Book of Unknowing

A Quaker Travels the World

Call of the Bell Bird

Current DoD force planning processes assume that U.S. military interventions are serially independent over time. This report challenges this assumption, arguing that interventions occur in temporally dependent clusters in which the likelihood of an intervention depends on interventions in the recent past. Integrating the concept of temporal dependence into DoD planning processes could help planners develop more appropriate force estimates.

Intervention Timing and Its Implications for Force Planning

Are U.S. Military Interventions Contagious Over Time?

I will if you will.' What is the mystery of the dying flowers in a dark doorway with an ever-open door? And why does it matter so much? Two very different women are brought together by love, loss and their struggles with very modern moral choices - whether to act against injustice, and just how far to go.

A Novel

And This Shall Be My Dancing Day

Sean M. Zeigler

Stephen Watts

Astrid Stuth Cevallos

Bryan Frederick

Nathan Chandler

Karl P. Mueller

Patrick B. Johnston

Trevor Johnston

Julia A. Thompson

Meagan L. Smith

Alexander Stephenson

The report analyzes the strategic effects of low-cost and small-footprint military options across a range of irregular warfare operations and in a range of operational environments.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Limited Stabilization, Limited Strike, and Containment Operations

Limited Intervention

Quentin E. Hodgson

C. Ben Gibson

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has presented a severe threat to state election plans in 2020 for primaries and for the general election. To conduct an election during the COVID-19 pandemic, states need registration and voting options that minimize direct personal contact and that reduce crowds and common access to high-touch surfaces. Another way to think about preparedness for conducting elections during a pandemic is to consider the flexibility that state election processes afford in terms of where, when, and how voters can get registered and cast votes. Particularly valuable to flexibility in the pandemic context are options that allow for the registration and voting processes to happen remotely or in ways that reduce person-to-person contact. In this report, the authors summarize state election laws on early voting, remote voting, and voter registration and discuss the potential implications of these laws for the execution of the November 2020 general election under conditions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. This report is part of RAND's Countering Truth Decay initiative, which is focused on restoring the role of facts, data, and analysis in U.S. political and civil discourse and the policymaking process.

Preparing for Elections During a Pandemic

An Assessment of State Voting Processes

Stephanie Pezard

Alexandra Stark

James Hoobler

Jooeun Kim

In this report, the authors create a framework that can be used to rigorously consider the trade-offs involved in U.S. military intervention decisions following the outbreak of a war or crisis. This framework can provide a better understanding of the relationships between intervention timing, intervention size, and intervention outcomes to inform future debates about whether, when, and with what size force to undertake a military intervention.

Whether, When, and with What Size Force to Intervene

Assessing Trade-Offs in U.S. Military Intervention Decisions

In folk history and religion, from the Shakers to Zen, simplicity has generally been considered a good thing. Our own motivation may be to leave a smaller carbon footprint, to express a compassionate solidarity with those who have least; or simply to downsize. Whatever our concern, it is likely that the motivation to live a simpler life will spring from within. At heart, simplicity is a focus on what matters. Reducing the clutter in our lives, whether in material objects, use of time or money, or in our religious practices, leads to an increased clarity of vision and a focus; a view of life and its priorities that is in itself simple. Step by step we can move towards a state in which our attitudes and life are all of a piece, integrated and made one. Simplicity is the outward and visible sign of an inward and spiritual grace. With this inspiring book, discover how simplicity can become a way of life.

Simplicity Made Easy

Thomas S. Szayna

Angela O'Mahony

Tova C. Norlen

Phoenix Voorhies

Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.

An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections

Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers

In 1861, the great journalist and social advocate Henry Mayhew published London Labour and the London Poor, an oral history of those living and working on the streets of Victorian London. Nothing on this scale had been attempted before. On the surface, the streets of London in 1861 and in 2019 are entirely different places. But dig just a little and the similarities are striking and, in many cases, shocking. Taking Mayhew's book as inspiration, Jennifer Kavanagh explores the changes and continuities by collecting and mapping stories from today's London. Beggars, street entertainers, stalls selling a variety of food, clothes, second-hand goods, thieves and the sex trade are all still predominant. The rise of the gig economy has brought a multitude of drivers and cyclists, delivering and moving goods, transporting meals and people, all organized through smart phones but using the same streets as Mayhew's informants. The precarity faced by this new workforce would also be familiar to the street-sellers of Mayhew's day. In terms of resources, gone are the workhouses, almshouses, paupers' lunatic asylums. Enter shelters, day centres, hostels, and food banks. Let Me Take You By The Hand is an x-ray of life on the streets today: the stories in their own words of those who work and live in our capital.

True Tales from London's Streets

Let Me Take You by the Hand

Amii M. Kress

Kayla M. Williams

Srikanth Kadiyala

Charles C. Engel

Agnes Gereben Schaefer

Radha Iyengar

The U.S. Department of Defense is considering a change in policy to allow transgender military personnel to serve openly. A RAND study examined the health care needs of transgender personnel, the costs of gender transition–related care, and the potential readiness implications of a policy change. The experiences of foreign militaries that permit transgender service members to serve openly also point to some best practices for U.S. policymakers.

Assessing the Implications of Allowing Transgender Personnel to Serve Openly

Jennifer Kavanagh

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