Yan Guo

Wenjie Dong

Fumin Ren

Jianbin Huang

This atlas and reference resource assembles the latest research findings on the responsibility and obligation of human society for historical climate change. It clearly and quantitatively estimates to what extent the developed and developing world are responsible for historical climate change with regard to anthropogenic carbon and sulfur emissions as well as global carbon trade, and so provides a potential tool to address the controversial issue of carbon emission reduction in international climate negotiations. Since the quantitative attribution of historical climate change is calculated based on CMIP5 models, the fidelity of these models in representing the observed climate change is also evaluated. In addition to evaluation, future climate change based on CMIP5 models is also shown both on global and regional scales (especially for China and its surrounding areas ) in terms of surface air temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperature, atmospheric circulations and Arctic Sea ice. The atlas also makes various comparisons among different multi-model ensemble methods in order to obtain the most reliable estimation.

Atlas of Climate Change: Responsibility and Obligation of Human Society

"The Atlas of Climate Change—Based on SEAP-CMIP5" is intended to satisfy readers’ curiosity: how will our climate system change over the next 100 years? It is the first showcase for the state-of -the-art earth system models that released their CMIP5 simulations for the IPCC AR5.The atlas focuses on both the past climate system change from 1850 and the projection of the future climate system change to 2100 using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on climate models. This provides the research and application community interested in the impact of climate change on fields such as agriculture, ecosystem, environment,water resources, energy, health, economy, risk governance and international negotiation, etc. with the newest climate change projection information. Additionally, the atlas will show the historical responsibility of the developed/developing countries and possible contributions to the mitigation of climate change according to their pledge of GHG emission reduction after the Cancun Agreement as an extension numerical experiment to CMIP5 with NCAR’s CESM1.0. The authors will update this atlas after future releases of CMIP5 model outputs and update the figures in the second edition of the atlas in 2012-2013. Both Prof. Wenjie Dong and Yan Guo work at the Beijing Normal University, China. Prof. Fumin Ren works at the China Meteorological Administration, China. Prof. Jianbin Huang works at the Tsinghua University, China.

Jianbin Huang

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