Jing Xie

Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if any guidance on selecting the best explantory variables (both high- and low-frequency indicators) from the (typically) larger set of variables available to the nowcaster. Second, in addition to the selection of explanatory variables, the order of the autoregression and moving average terms to use in the baseline nowcasting regression is often set arbitrarily. This paper proposes a simple procedure that simultaneously selects the optimal indicators and ARIMA(p,q) terms for the baseline nowcasting regression. The proposed AS-ARIMAX (Adjusted Stepwise Autoregressive Moving Average methods with exogenous variables) approach significantly reduces out-of-sample root mean square error for nowcasts of real GDP of six countries, including India, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models

Tim Heath

Urban planning, regeneration and design is an essentially cultural practice with the outcomes often depending upon an understanding of and engagement with the past. As cities in China strive to be competitive and attractive on the world stage, their decaying historical urban fabrics are being transformed into vibrant places through historical-cultural led urban regeneration, however, their rapid development has so far escaped serious scrutiny. Heritage-led Urban Regeneration in China presents the detailed evolution of three well-known historic streets in China: the Southern Song Imperial Street in Hangzhou; the residential Pingjiang Street in Suzhou; and the commercial Tunxi Old Street in Huangshan. From their original formation to their more recent regeneration, this book offers a critical evaluation of historical-cultural led urban regeneration projects in China and provides theoretical guidelines for contemporary practice in relation to its tangible and intangible urban heritage. Using interdisciplinary research in architecture, urban design, history, and cultural studies, Jing Xie and Tim Heath provide a detailed analysis of the conservation and regeneration efforts of China as an emerging and pivotal world power. An invaluable resource for urban designers, urban planners and architects interested in and working in China, Heritage-led Urban Regeneration in China helps its readers to engage with the essential and invisible factors that produce these revitalized places while forming a critical view towards these projects.

Heritage-led Urban Regeneration in China

"Since the 1990s, the urban landscape of China has witnessed revolutionary changes that are unrivalled in any country of the world throughout history. Rapid urbanization, facilitated by the modern planning mechanism for growth, provides a feast for property developers. Yet, associated urban problems such as housing affordability, traffic congestion, energy consumption, and environmental deterioration are aggravated. This book takes a historic approach to investigate the planning philosophy, urban form and life of the past. Through a detailed study of urban development from early times through the imperial period with a focus on the Tang-Song dynasties, this book attempts to articulate the good qualities of urban landscapes from the past that still have instructive value for modern practices. The focus on the Tang-Song period is not only because China was the most advanced civilization of its time, but also because it underwent a similar process of "urbanization", evident by tremendous economic growth, a dramatic rise of urban population, and an extended building boom. Through evaluating the streets, city layout, public places, urban communities, houses and gardens, and using interdisciplinary research in urban planning, urban design, architecture, history, and cultural studies, this book asserts that the past is quintessentially important. The past not only truthfully records the course of social and cultural formation of urban community and its associated physical fabric, but also regulates the directions we may take in the future"--

Jing Xie

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