Johanna Zmud

The four future scenarios were developed using a Strategic Assumptions Surfacing and Testing (SAST) technique and include the following: (1) Momentum: gradual change without radical shifts; (2) Technology Triumphs: technology solves many present-day problems; (3) Global Chaos: a collapse in globalism and sustainability, and (4) Gentle Footprint: a widespread shift to low-impact living. The model does not predict which scenario is most likely; instead it predicts how travel demand will change under each of the five sectors: socio-demographics, travel behavior, land use, employment, and transportation supply. The accompanying CD (CRP-CD-152) contains the Impacts 2050 software tool, the user's guide, a PowerPoint presentation about the research, and the research brief. The Impacts 2050 tool enables modeling of changes in these sectors due to socio-demographic changes, the interplay between sectors, and external factors such as attitudes and technology.

The effects of socio-demographics on future travel demand. Volume 6

Strategic Issues Facing Transportation

Liisa Ecola

Kun Gu

Peter Phleps

Irene Feige

Researchers developed two scenarios to envision the future of mobility in China in 2030. Economic growth, the presence of constraints on vehicle ownership and driving, and environmental conditions differentiate the scenarios. By making potential long-term mobility futures more vivid, the team sought to help decisionmakers at different levels of government and in the private sector better anticipate and prepare for change.

Johanna Zmud

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