John Kay

The finance sector of Western economies is too large and attracts too many of the smartest college graduates. Financialization over the past three decades has created a structure that lacks resilience and supports absurd volumes of trading. The finance sector devotes too little attention to the search for new investment opportunities and the stewardship of existing ones, and far too much to secondary-market dealing in existing assets. Regulation has contributed more to the problems than the solutions. Why? What is finance for? John Kay, with wide practical and academic experience in the world of finance, understands the operation of the financial sector better than most. He believes in good banks and effective asset managers, but good banks and effective asset managers are not what he sees. In a dazzling and revelatory tour of the financial world as it has emerged from the wreckage of the 2008 crisis, Kay does not flinch in his criticism: we do need some of the things that Citigroup and Goldman Sachs do, but we do not need Citigroup and Goldman to do them. And many of the things done by Citigroup and Goldman do not need to be done at all. The finance sector needs to be reminded of its primary purpose: to manage other people’s money for the benefit of businesses and households. It is an aberration when the some of the finest mathematical and scientific minds are tasked with devising algorithms for the sole purpose of exploiting the weakness of other algorithms for computerized trading in securities. To travel further down that road leads to ruin.

The Real Business of Finance

Other People's Money

If you want to go in one direction, the best route may involve going in another. This is the concept of 'obliquity': paradoxical as it sounds, many goals are more likely to be achieved when pursued indirectly. Whether overcoming geographical obstacles, winning decisive battles or meeting sales targets, history shows that oblique approaches are the most successful, especially in difficult terrain.Pre-eminent economist John Kay applies his provocative, universal theory to everything from international business to town planning and from football to managing forest fires. He shows why the most profitable companies are not always the most profit-oriented; why the richest men and women are not the most materialistic; and why the happiest people are not necessarily those who focus on happiness.

Why Our Goals are Best Achieved Indirectly

Obliquity

Mervyn King

Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Paul Collier

Two of the UK's leading economists call for an end to extreme individualism as the engine of prosperity Throughout history, successful societies have created institutions which channel both competition and co-operation to achieve complex goals of general benefit. These institutions make the difference between societies that thrive and those paralyzed by discord, the difference between prosperous and poor economies. Such societies are pluralist but their pluralism is disciplined. Successful societies are also rare and fragile. We could not have built modernity without the exceptional competitive and co-operative instincts of humans, but in recent decades the balance between these instincts has become dangerously skewed: mutuality has been undermined by an extreme individualism which has weakened co-operation and polarized our politics. Collier and Kay show how a reaffirmation of the values of mutuality could refresh and restore politics, business and the environments in which people live. Politics could reverse the moves to extremism and tribalism; businesses could replace the greed that has degraded corporate culture; the communities and decaying places that are home to many could overcome despondency and again be prosperous and purposeful. As the world emerges from an unprecedented crisis we have the chance to examine society afresh and build a politics beyond individualism.

Politics After Individualism

Greed Is Dead

This book provides a guide to the complexities of modern finance, both the basics of investment and the sophisticated innovations of the modern financial system. It explains how twice in the last decade - in the new economy bubble and the credit crunch -- the follies of finance have threatened the stability of the world economy. It describes an environment that is complex and sophisticated, but greedy, cynical and self-interested. This book explains how to put your finances in the only hands you can confidently trust -- your own. You will learn everything you need to be your own investment manager; to recognise your investment options, and the institutions that will try to sell them to you; to understand the principles of sound investment and the research that supports these principles. Since much of your portfolio will be in stocks and shares, this book describes why some companies succeed and others fail, and how to distinguish fact and fiction in what companies tell you. John Kay explains many meanings people attach to the term risk; the tools professionals use to analyse risk and the different tools you need to manage risk for yourself. You will learn a practical investment strategy and how to implement it. This is the only book about finance and investment you need, and the one you must have.

A Guide to Finance and Investment for Normally Intelligent People who Aren't in the Industry

The Long and the Short of it

This book provides a guide to the complexities of modern finance. It describes the basics of investment and the sophisticated innovations of the modern financial system. It explains how the follies of finance have threatened the stability of the world economy, and describes an environment that is complex and sophisticated, but greedy, cynical and self-interested. This book explains how to put your finances in the only hands you can confidently trust - your own. Readers will learn everything they need to be their own investment manager. They will recognise their investment options, the institutions that try to sell them, and how to distinguish between fact and fiction in what companies say. They will discover the principles of sound investment and the research that supports these principles. Crucially, they will learn a practical investment strategy and how to implement it. Leading economist and hugely successful investor John Kay uses his academic credentials and practical experience to lay out the key principles of investment with characteristic clarity and dry humour. This is the only book about finance and investment anyone needs, and the one book they must have.

Long and the Short of it

Capitalism faltered at the end of the 1990s as corporations were rocked by fraud, the stock-market bubble burst and the American business model – unfettered self-interest, privatization and low tax – faced a storm of protest. But what are the alternatives to the mantras of market fundamentalism? Leading economist John Kay unravels the truth about markets, from Wall Street to Switzerland, from Russia to Mumbai, examining why some nations are rich and some poor, why ‘one-size-fits-all’ globalization hurts developing countries and why markets can work – but only in a humane social and cultural context. His answers offer a radical new blueprint for the future.

Why Some Nations are Rich But Most Remain Poor

The Truth About Markets

The Truth About Markets - Why Some Nations Are Rich but Most Remain Poor

Culture and Prosperity

"John Kay tells a fast-paced detective story as he searches for the surprising secret to success...Brilliant." -Tim Harford, author of The Logic of Life In this revolutionary book, economist John Kay proves a notion that feels at once paradoxical and deeply commonsensical: the best way to achieve any complex or broadly defined goal, from happiness to preventing forest fires, is the indirect way. We can learn how to achieve our objectives only through a gradual process of risk taking and discovery-what Kay calls obliquity. The author traces this seemingly counterintuitive path to success as it manifests itself in nearly every aspect of life, including business, politics, sports, and more.

Why Our Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly

How Business Strategies Add Value

Foundations of Corporate Success

Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty.

Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Radical Uncertainty

Shortlisted for the Orwell Prize 2016We all depend on the finance sector. We need it to store our money, manage our payments, finance housing stock, restore infrastructure, fund retirement and support new business. But these roles comprise only a tiny sliver of the sector's activity: the vast majority of lending is within the finance sector. So what is it all for? What is the purpose of this activity? And why is it so profitable?John Kay, a distinguished economist with wide experience of the financial sector, argues that the industry's perceived profitability is partly illusory, and partly an appropriation of wealth created elsewhere - of other people's money. The financial sector, he shows, has grown too large, detached itself from ordinary business and everyday life, and has become an industry that mostly trades with itself, talks to itself, and judges itself by reference to standards which it has itself generated. And the outside world has itself adopted those standards, bailing out financial institutions that have failed all of us through greed and mismanagement. We need finance, but today we have far too much of a good thing. In Other People's Money John Kay shows in his inimitable style what has gone wrong in the dark heart of finance.

Masters of the Universe Or Servants of the People?

How did BMW recover from the edge of bankruptcy to become on of Europe's strongest companies? Why did Saatchi and Saatchi's global strategy bring the company to its knees? Why has Philips's outstanding record in innovation not been translated into success in the market? What can be learnt from the marriage contract about the conduct of commercial negotiations? These are some of the questions addressed as John Kay asks `What makes a business successful?' Drawing on his own business experience and on concepts in economics, legal theory, and sociology, the author presents a fresh approach to questions of business strategy. He rejects the military analogy which underpins much strategic thinking, in which success depends on size and share, on vision and leadership, on shifting patterns of mergers and alliances. John Kay argues that outstanding businesses derive their strength from a distinctive structure of relationships with employees, customers, and suppliers, and explains why continuity and stability in these relationships is essential for a flexible and co-operative response to change. By integrating organizational and financial perspectives on the performance of the firm, Kay not only gives insights into the creation of effective business strategies, but sheds light on the success - and failure - of national economies. As the single market develops, this book - full of insight and rigour, yet lively in style - is probably the most important European contribution to strategic thinking for many years. It will be vital reading for all who want to understand what distinguishes the successful company.

'A brilliant new book' Daily Telegraph 'Well written . . . and often entertaining' The Times 'A sparkling analysis' Prospect 'Entertaining and enlightening . . . This is a necessary critique and they make it with verve, knowledge and a wealth of stories' Financial Times 'An elegant, wise and timely book' Irish Times 'Jam-packed with erudition' New Statesman This major, critically acclaimed work asks a vitally important question for today: when uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions? We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives. This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today.

Decision-making for an unknowable future

For Twenty Years a Minister of the Methodist New Connexion Church in Canada

Biography of the Rev. William Gundy

Containing plates CLXXI. to CCCXXIX., and appendix CCCXXX. to CCCLXI

Dieter Helm

David Thompson

John Anderson Kay

Professor of Industrial Policy John Kay

Written in light of recent advances in the field, this book is an up-to-date account of economic aspects of the energy markets. The editors fully consider the implications for regulation, privatization, and international competition in each of the major markets--electricity, gas, coal, and oil.

The Market for Energy

A series of original portraits and caricature etchings

Most business books are bland or dull, or both. This volume is neither. John Kay combines insightful analysis with wit and verve. In this book, we meet heroes as diverse as Sun Tzu, Jacques Derrida, and Jack Welch. We study businesses as diverse as Honda Motors, the grandes marques of Champagne, and Jenners department store in Princes Street, Edinburgh. We learn why size doesn't matter, why brakes are different from signals, how to value businesses, and why the author was wrong to tell students that Boeing's position in the civil aircraft market was unassailable. In less than two hundred pages, John Kay provides a lively introduction to business strategy and a guide to many of the key issues in business today.

John Kay

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