Kees van der Heijden

John W. Selsky

Fellow in Strategy and Director of the Oxford Scenarios Programme Rafael Ramirez

Rafael Ramirez

The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects. These range from the impacts of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change. All this threatens established strategic planning methods. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.

New Methods for Applying Scenarios

Business Planning for Turbulent Times

Joseph McCann

The essential capabilities organizations need to master turbulent change Rapid and disruptive change threatens the adaptive capacity of organizations, along with the individuals and teams leading them. Based upon over a decade of global research and consulting, Joseph E. McCann and John W. Selsky outline five capabilities highly agile and resilient systems must possess. They must be: Purposeful, Aware, Action-Oriented, Resourceful, and Networked. In addition the authors illustrate how these capabilities can be assessed across four levels—individuals, teams, organizations, and their business ecosystems. The goal is to develop these capabilities in tandem so that the individual, team, organization and ecosystem have High AR—not just greater agility or resiliency, but both high agility and high resiliency. The authors outline balanced development strategies for creating High AR that can be used to master turbulent environments for competitive advantage and sustained performance Includes cutting-edge concepts and examples that take readers from the latest advances in neuro-science and executive wellness to global supply chains and innovation strategy Contains illustrative examples and vignettes from leading organizations including Mayo Clinic, Microsoft, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, TECO Energy, Shell Oil, Walmart, and others Most important, McCann, and Selsky deliver a unique and practical perspective that helps organization leaders make sense of the dynamic world in which they operate.

John W. Selsky

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