Andrew W. Lo

John W. Campbell

A. Craig MacKinlay

John Y. Campbell

Professor Andrew W Lo

John J. Champbell

The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.

The Econometrics of Financial Markets

From the field's leading authority, the most authoritative and comprehensive advanced-level textbook on asset pricing In Financial Decisions and Markets, John Campbell, one of the field’s most respected authorities, provides a broad graduate-level overview of asset pricing. He introduces students to leading theories of portfolio choice, their implications for asset prices, and empirical patterns of risk and return in financial markets. Campbell emphasizes the interplay of theory and evidence, as theorists respond to empirical puzzles by developing models with new testable implications. The book shows how models make predictions not only about asset prices but also about investors’ financial positions, and how they often draw on insights from behavioral economics. After a careful introduction to single-period models, Campbell develops multiperiod models with time-varying discount rates, reviews the leading approaches to consumption-based asset pricing, and integrates the study of equities and fixed-income securities. He discusses models with heterogeneous agents who use financial markets to share their risks, but also may speculate against one another on the basis of different beliefs or private information. Campbell takes a broad view of the field, linking asset pricing to related areas, including financial econometrics, household finance, and macroeconomics. The textbook works in discrete time throughout, and does not require stochastic calculus. Problems are provided at the end of each chapter to challenge students to develop their understanding of the main issues in financial economics. The most comprehensive and balanced textbook on asset pricing available, Financial Decisions and Markets is an essential resource for all graduate students and practitioners in finance and related fields. Integrated treatment of asset pricing theory and empirical evidence Emphasis on investors’ decisions Broad view linking the field to financial econometrics, household finance, and macroeconomics Topics treated in discrete time, with no requirement for stochastic calculus Solutions manual for problems available to professors

A Course in Asset Pricing

Financial Decisions and Markets

From the field's leading authority, the most authoritative and comprehensive advanced-level textbook on asset pricing In Financial Decisions and Markets, John Campbell, one of the field’s most respected authorities, provides a broad graduate-level overview of asset pricing. He introduces students to leading theories of portfolio choice, their implications for asset prices, and empirical patterns of risk and return in financial markets. Campbell emphasizes the interplay of theory and evidence, as theorists respond to empirical puzzles by developing models with new testable implications. The book shows how models make predictions not only about asset prices but also about investors’ financial positions, and how they often draw on insights from behavioral economics. After a careful introduction to single-period models, Campbell develops multiperiod models with time-varying discount rates, reviews the leading approaches to consumption-based asset pricing, and integrates the study of equities and fixed-income securities. He discusses models with heterogeneous agents who use financial markets to share their risks, but also may speculate against one another on the basis of different beliefs or private information. Campbell takes a broad view of the field, linking asset pricing to related areas, including financial econometrics, household finance, and macroeconomics. The textbook works in discrete time throughout, and does not require stochastic calculus. Problems are provided at the end of each chapter to challenge students to develop their understanding of the main issues in financial economics. The most comprehensive and balanced textbook on asset pricing available, Financial Decisions and Markets is an essential resource for all graduate students and practitioners in finance and related fields. Integrated treatment of asset pricing theory and empirical evidence Emphasis on investors’ decisions Broad view linking the field to financial econometrics, household finance, and macroeconomics Topics treated in discrete time, with no requirement for stochastic calculus Forthcoming solutions manual for problems available to professors

Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

Luis M. Viceira

Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors

Strategic Asset Allocation

Robert J. Shiller

Raghuram G. Rajan

Frederic S. Mishkin

Kenneth R. French

René M. Stulz

Jeremy C. Stein

Matthew J. Slaughter

Hyun Song Shin

David S. Scharfstein

Anil K. Kashyap

Darrell Duffie

Martin N. Baily

Douglas W. Diamond

John H. Cochrane

In the fall of 2008, fifteen of the world's leading economists--representing the broadest spectrum of economic opinion--gathered at New Hampshire's Squam Lake. Their goal: the mapping of a long-term plan for financial regulation reform. The Squam Lake Report distills the wealth of insights from the ongoing collaboration that began at these meetings and provides a revelatory, unified, and coherent voice for fixing our troubled and damaged financial markets. As an alternative to the patchwork solutions and ideologically charged proposals that have dominated other discussions, the Squam Lake group sets forth a clear nonpartisan plan of action to transform the regulation of financial markets--not just for the current climate--but for generations to come. Arguing that there has been a conflict between financial institutions and society, these diverse experts present sound and transparent prescriptions to reduce this divide. They look at the critical holes in the existing regulatory framework for handling complex financial institutions, retirement savings, and credit default swaps. They offer ideas for new financial instruments designed to recapitalize banks without burdening taxpayers. To lower the risk that large banks will fail, the authors call for higher capital requirements as well as a systemic regulator who is part of the central bank. They collectively analyze where the financial system has failed, and how these weak points should be overhauled. Combining an immense depth of academic, private sector, and public policy experience, The Squam Lake Report contains urgent recommendations that will positively influence everyone's financial well-being--all who care about the world's economic health need to pay attention.

Fixing the Financial System

The Squam Lake Report

John Y. Campbell

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