Donella H. Meadows

Jorgen Randers

Dennis L. Meadows

The 30-Year Update

Limits to Growth

Twenty years after their influential book, The Limits to Growth, was published to worldwide acclaim, the authors revise several scenarios of growth, concluding that the global industrial system has already overshot some of the Earth's vital ecological limits.

Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future

Beyond the Limits

1972: su incarico del Club di Roma, un gruppo di studiosi dell’MIT pubblica I Limiti dello sviluppo, che prefigura gli effetti della crescita della popolazione, dei consumi e dell’inquinamento su un pianeta fisicamente limitato. Dopo decenni di critiche feroci, ormai si ammette che le conclusioni di quello studio erano corrette. 2012: Jorgen Randers, uno dei coautori di I limiti dello sviluppo, fa il punto su quanto è successo e prova a delineare il futuro globale da qui al 2052. Vivremo sempre più nelle città, saremo più connessi e creativi, e dovremo trovare nuovi modi per gestire le tensioni dovute alle diseguaglianze crescenti. Probabilmente la popolazione non crescerà quanto previsto, con una riduzione degli impatti sulla biosfera, ma le rinnovabili non riusciranno a rimpiazzare i combustibili fossili in tempo per eliminare del tutto la possibilità di un riscaldamento climatico catastrofico... Nessun settore è escluso, e Randers ci mette a disposizione una guida per interpretare e gestire le turbolenze dei prossimi quarant’anni. - See more at: http://www.edizioniambiente.it/ebook/873/2052/

Scenari globali per i prossimi quarant'anni

2052

Dennis Meadows

Donella Meadows

"A pioneering work of science."—Business Insider "[This book] helped launch modern environmental computer modeling and began our current globally focused environmental debate . . . . a scientifically rigorous and credible warning."—The Nation In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global 'overshoot,' or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the planet. Now, preeminent environmental scientists Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have teamed up again to update and expand their original findings in The Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Global Update. Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are international environmental leaders recognized for their groundbreaking research into early signs of wear on the planet. Citing climate change as the most tangible example of our current overshoot, the scientists now provide us with an updated scenario and a plan to reduce our needs to meet the carrying capacity of the planet. Over the past three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3 computer model in the original Limits to Growth. While Meadows, Randers, and Meadows do not make a practice of predicting future environmental degradation, they offer an analysis of present and future trends in resource use, and assess a variety of possible outcomes. In many ways, the message contained in Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a warning. Overshoot cannot be sustained without collapse. But, as the authors are careful to point out, there is reason to believe that humanity can still reverse some of its damage to Earth if it takes appropriate measures to reduce inefficiency and waste. Written in refreshingly accessible prose, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a long anticipated revival of some of the original voices in the growing chorus of sustainability. Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update is a work of stunning intelligence that will expose for humanity the hazy but critical line between human growth and human development.

Graeme Maxton

“An important contribution to the global debate about growth, equality, climate change, and the path to a viable human future.” —David Korten, international bestselling author of When Corporations Rule the World The biggest challenges facing human wellbeing today—widening income inequality, continuing global poverty, and environmental degradation—may be simple to solve in theory. But, because we are required to come up with solutions that are acceptable to a political majority in the rich world, they are much harder to solve in practice. Most of the commonly proposed “solutions” are simply not acceptable to most people. Many of these proposed solutions—like stopping the use of fossil fuels—require a sacrifice today in order to obtain an uncertain advantage in the far future. Therefore they are politically infeasible in the modern world, which is marked by relatively short term thinking. In Reinventing Prosperity, Graeme Maxton and Jorgen Randers provide a new approach altogether through thirteen recommendations which are both politically acceptable and which can be implemented in the current period of slow economic growth around the world. Reinventing Prosperity solves the forty-year-old growth/no-growth standoff, by providing a solution to income inequality, continuing global poverty and climate change, a solution that will provide for economic growth but with a declining ecological footprint. Reinventing Prosperity shows us how to live better on our finite planet—and in ways we can agree on. “An essential guide to those who want to change the world for the better—and for certain.” —Ha-Joon Chang, international bestselling author of 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism “[A] well-argued book . . . explaining complex issues in a style that is clear, logical, and succinct.” —Publishers Weekly

Managing Economic Growth to Reduce Unemployment, Inequality, and Climate Change

Reinventing Prosperity

Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or through well-managed "peak and decline." So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the coauthors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead. The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely. So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.

Jorgen Randers

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