Lawrence W. Sherman

David Allan Feller

Foresight is a process that is found in all areas of human endeavour and survival, from politics to music to interplanetary events. In this provocative volume, eight distinguished scholars present eight different perspectives on the concept of foresight, investigating its ability to both predict and change the future.

Foresight

Research evidence can and should have an important role in shaping public policy. Just as much of the medical community has embraced the concept of "evidence-based medicine," increasing numbers of social scientists and government agencies are calling for an evidence-based approach to determine which social programs work and which ones don't. It is an irony not lost on the social scientists writing for the September volume of The Annals that the first use of experimental methods in medicine (to test the effects of Streptomycin on tuberculosis in the late 1940s) was actually conducted by an economist. But while more than one million clinical trials in medicine have been conducted since that time, only about 10,000 have been conducted to evaluate whether social programs achieve their intended effects. Authors of the September volume argue that this level of investment in the "gold standard" of research designs is insufficient for a wide range of reasons. Randomized controlled trials, for example, are far better at controlling selection biases and chance effects than are other observational methods, while econometric and statistical techniques that seek to correct for bias fall short of their promise. The volume dramatically demonstrates that alternative methods generate different (and often substantially wrong) estimates of program effects. Some research based on nonexperimental research designs actually mislead policy makers and practitioners into supporting programs that don't work, while ignoring others that do. Authors of this volume also directly address critiques of experimental designs, which range from questions about their practicality to their ethics. Some of these arguments are well taken, but addressable. The authors, however, reject other arguments against controlled tests as unfounded and damaging to social science.. Policymakers will find these articles invaluable in better understanding how alternative research methods can mislead as much as enlighten. Students and researchers will be confronted with powerful arguments that question the use of nonexperimental techniques to estimate program effects. This volume throws the gauntlet down. We challenge you to pick it up.

Making Social Science More Experimental

Misleading Evidence and Evidence-Led Policy

This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1978.

Controlling Police Corruption

Scandal and Reform

Neighborhood Safety

David P. Farrington

Brandon C. Welsh

Doris Layton MacKenzie

Crime prevention policy and practice is, on the whole, far from objective. Instead of being based on scientific evidence, the crime policy agenda is seemingly driven by political ideology, anecdotal evidence and programme trends. Evidence-Based Crime Prevention seeks to change this by comprehensively and rigorously assessing the existing scientific knowledge on the effectiveness of crime prevention programmes internationally. Reviewing more than 600 scientific evaluations of programmes intended to prevent crime in settings such as families, schools, labour markets and communities, this book grades programmes on their scientific validity using the 'scientific methods scale'. This collection, which brings together contributions from leading researchers in the field of crime prevention, will provide policy-makers, researchers and community leaders with an understandable source of information about what works, what does not work and what is promising in preventing crime.

Evidence-Based Crime Prevention

Articles in this volume discuss efforts by the police to reduce violence in society and the problem of the use of violence by and against the police. The introductory article notes that when police attempt to stop violence, they must often be violent themselves. One paper demonstrates the personal and institutional consequences of the moral dilemmas involved in police work; when police use 'dirty' means to achieve good ends they may lose their sense of moral proportion. Empirical evidence of violence against police is presented. For example, the first systematic analysis of the circumstances surrounding police killings is discussed, and the myth that many officers are killed in family fights is deflated. The practice of arming off-duty police officers is criticized by another contributor as harmful to both police officers and citizens. Ways in which police behavior might be changed to reduce injuries to citizens are suggested in two papers which show how prior decisions can constrain the options an officer has by the time a confrontation develops. Also discussed are police shootings at minorities in Los Angeles. Many contributors point to the need for more research, especially concerning violence against the police. Scarcity of basic data accounts for lack of practical solutions to the problems of violence and police. Footnotes, case studies, and statistical data are included.

The Police and Violence

Crime prevention policy and practice is often far from objective. Instead of being based on scientific evidence, the crime policy agenda is sometimes driven by political ideology, anecdotal evidence and program favorites of the month. Evidence-Based Crime Prevention seeks to change this by comprehensively and rigorously assessing the existing scientific knowledge on the effectiveness of crime prevention programs internationally. Reviewing more than 600 scientific evaluations of programs intended to prevent crime in settings such as families, schools, labor markets, places and communities, this book grades programs on their validity using "the scientific methods scale." This collection, which brings together contributions from leading researchers in the field of crime prevention, will provide policy makers, researchers and community leaders with an understandable source of information about what works, what does not work and what is promising in preventing crime. The revised edition of this internationally renown and highly influential book contains an entirely new and up-to-date introductory chapter. This new chapter takes stock of important new developments that are helping to make crime prevention more rational and also sets out the contribution of this book to evidence-based crime prevention.

Lawrence W. Sherman

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