Mervyn King

it deserves, it might just save the world. Michael Lewis, Bloomberg View"

Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy

The End of Alchemy

John Kay

Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Money, Banking and the Future of the Global Economy

End of Alchemy

Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty.

Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Radical Uncertainty

'A brilliant new book' Daily Telegraph 'Well written . . . and often entertaining' The Times 'A sparkling analysis' Prospect 'Entertaining and enlightening . . . This is a necessary critique and they make it with verve, knowledge and a wealth of stories' Financial Times 'An elegant, wise and timely book' Irish Times 'Jam-packed with erudition' New Statesman This major, critically acclaimed work asks a vitally important question for today: when uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions? We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives. This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today.

Decision-making for an unknowable future

Integrated Reporting is having a profound impact on corporate thinking and reporting. Value is being assessed on the basis of the sources of value creation used by an organization and not through a financial lens alone. In Chief Value Officer: Accountants Can Save the Planet, Mervyn King, a global corporate governance and reporting leader, challenges some of the systemic issues preventing organizations from managing in an integrated value-creation manner. A shareholder-centric governance model will not result in changes to corporate behavior that can create value in a sustainable manner. The book, therefore, firmly places the accountant in the position of change-maker - the finance professional today should be more of a value officer than a financial officer. Consequently, the Chief Finance Officer should be known as the Chief Value Officer. This book explains this new approach. It encapsulates the essential reasons for adopting integrated reporting, explains its application to date and proposes the next steps needed to achieve change that will improve both business and environmental sustainability.

Accountants Can Save the Planet

Chief Value Officer

Linda de Beer

The audit profession is at a tipping point. Without significant innovation in its business model, staff recruitment strategies and audit execution processes, the audit profession may not remain relevant in the 21st century. The number of claims against auditors has significantly increased over the past twenty years due to the spate of corporate and audit failures early in the 21st century (Enron, Worldcom, Parmalat, etc.). Regulation to monitor professional and ethical standards has increased, leading audit firms to feel under even more financial pressure. In addition, the investor community is calling for greater insight and foresight from auditors. These challenges, coupled with the unlimited liability regime of auditors still applicable in many jurisdictions, are making audit firms and regulators nervous as to the systemic risk of another one of the Big 4 failing. And yet, the audit profession is in place to protect businesses, their wider stakeholder groups, including clients and investors, and society at large. Therefore, this book asks the important question about the profession's future and engages a broad readership in the discussion of audit failure and reform. Intended to help readers to get up to speed with the issues and possible solutions quickly, this book assists directors, investors, business people and regulators, especially those with a non-financial background, to gain a greater understanding of the challenges and threats being faced by the audit profession, which in turn could disrupt the capital market and affect businesses across the globe. The book outlines the critical success factors needed for a sustainable audit profession.

Mervyn King

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