Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

Mr.Alun H. Thomas

Mr.Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu

Ms.Yingyuan Chen

This paper documents stylized facts on the process of structural transformation around the world and empirically analyzes its determinants using data on real value added by sector of economic activity (agriculture, manufacturing and services) for a panel of 168 countries over the period 1970-2010. The analysis points to large differences in sector shares both across and within regions as well as for countries at similar levels of economic development. Using both linear and quantile regression methods, it finds that a large proportion of the cross-country variation in sector shares can be accounted for by country characteristics, such as real GDP per capita, demographic structure, and population size. It also finds that policy and insitutional variables, such as product market reforms, openness to trade, human and physical capital, and finance improve the baseline model’s ability to account for the variation in sectoral shares across countries.

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World

Ms.Uma Ramakrishnan

Mr.Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan

Ms.Tessa Van der Willigen

S. Reichold

Mr.Juan Zalduendo

Mr.James P Walsh

This paper focuses on the fact that the 2004–2005 conditionality review expands to include a review of the application of the new Guidelines on Conditionality, adopted in 2002. These guidelines were the culmination of a comprehensive and far-reaching review of conditionality that aimed to enhance the effectiveness of IMF-supported programs. They represented the first revision of the IMF’s conditionality guidelines since 1979, and were developed by the IMF after seeking input from civil society and public forums held in several countries. This review comes at an early stage of experience with the new guidelines, and further evidence will be needed before definite conclusions can be drawn. The ultimate test of conditionality is whether it contributes to better economic outcomes, including over the medium term, and these cannot yet be gauged. Moreover, although this review draws in part on case studies, no substitute exists for cross-country analysis for identifying broad trends, and at this stage such analysis is hampered by small sample sizes.

Review of the 2002 Conditionality Guidelines

Exclusion restrictions used to identify demand and supply relationships for market financing among IDA recipients (past and present) show that poor credit ratings and high political instability adversely impact the supply of market finance. While the adverse effects of external debt on market access occur at very high levels for IDA-eligible countries, the sizeable debt relief provided in the context of the enhanced HIPC Initiative has significantly raised the likelihood of market access for these countries. For countries that have graduated from IDA financing, the length of country spells in IMF-supported programs raises the likelihood of market access, although this effect is absent for IDA-eligible countries.

Access to Market Financing for IDA-eligible Countries—the Role of External Debt and IMF-Supported Programs

This paper assesses the responsiveness of wages and labor force movements to employment shocks across British and U.S. regions and across Europe using a multivariate vector autoregression technique. The paper finds inflexible real wages in all three areas in that each area’s real wage responds very little to employment shocks. However, the response of the labor force to employment shocks is much greater in the United States compared to Europe. The strong labor force response in the United States prevents any persistence in relative regional unemployment rates whereas the lack of mobility in Europe results in persistent unemployment rate differentials across British regions and European nations. Europe must therefore adopt measures to reduce barriers to immobility if it is to succeed in moderating the persistence in relative unemployment rates.

Mr.Alun H. Thomas

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