Mr.Bankim Chadha

Mr.Eswar Prasad

This paper re-examines the cyclical behavior of prices using postwar quarterly data for the G-7. We confirm recent evidence that the price level is countercyclical. However, we find strong evidence that the inflation rate is procyclical in our sample. Our results show the importance of making a clear distinction between inflation and the cyclical component of the price level when reporting and interpreting stylized facts regarding business cycles.

Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence From the G-7

Daniel Tsiddon

This paper examines the distribution of output around capacity when money demand is a nonlinear function of the nominal interest rate such that nominal interest rates cannot become negative. When fluctuations in output result primarily from disturbances to the money market, the variance of output is shown to be an increasing function of the trend inflation rate. When they result from disturbances to the goods market, the variance of output is a decreasing function of the trend inflation rate. When both disturbances are significant, there exists, in general, a critical non-zero trend inflation rate that minimizes the variance of output.

Inflation, Nominal Interest Rates, and the Variability of Output

Mr.Charles Adams

This paper decomposes longer-run movements in (major) dollar real exchange rates into components associated with changes in nominal exchange rates and price levels, and their comovements. Though the decompositions suggest some permanent movements, they imply that there are large transitory components in real exchange rates. These transitory components in real exchange rates are found to be closely associated with those in nominal exchange rates. A stochastic version of Dornbusch’s overshooting model—configured with representative parameter values for the United States and subjected to permanent nominal shocks—can rationalize these transitory comovements of nominal and real exchange rates as well as several other features of the decompositions.

Mr.Bankim Chadha

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