Mr.Ralph Chami

Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza

Mr.Heiko Hesse

Mr.Adolfo Barajas

This paper examines the recent credit slowdown among Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries from three analytical angles. First, it finds that, similar to other regions and to its past history, a credit boom preceded the current slowdown, and that a protracted period of sluggish growth is likely going forward. Second, it uncovers a key role played by bank funding (deposit growth and external borrowing slowed considerably) but whose effect was frequently dampened by expansionary monetary policy. Third, bank-level fundamentals - capitalization and loan quality - helped to explain differences in credit growth across banks and countries.

What to Expect? What Can Be Done?

Recent Credit Stagnation in the Mena Region

Mr.Tamon Asonuma

Mr.Said Bakhache

Motivated by the recent increase in domestic banks’ holdings of domestic sovereign debt (i.e., home bias) in the European periphery, this paper analyzes implications of banks’ home bias for the sovereign’s debt sustainability. The main findings, based on a sample of advanced (AM) and emerging market (EM) economies, suggest that home bias generally reduces the cost of borrowing for AMs and EMs when debt levels are moderate to high. A worsening of market sentiments appears to dimish the favorable impact of home bias on cost of borrowing particularly for EMs. In addition, for AMs and EMs, higher home bias is associated with higher debt levels, and less responsive fiscal policy. The findings suggest that home bias indeed matters for debt sustainability: Home bias may provide fiscal breathing space, but delays in fiscal consolidation may actually delay problems until debt reaches dangerously high levels.

Is Banks’ Home Bias Good or Bad for Public Debt Sustainability?

Mr.Christian Schmieder

Mr.Ferhan Salman

One of the challenges of financial stability analysis and bank stress testing is how to establish scenarios with meaningful macro-financial linkages, i.e., taking into account spillover effects and other forms of contagion. We come up with an approach to simulate the potential impact of spillover effects based on the “traditional” design of macro-economic stress tests. Specifically, we examine spillover effects observed during the financial crisis and simulate their impact on banks’ liquidity and capital positions. The outcome suggests that spillover effects have a highly non-linear impact on bank soundness, both in terms of liquidity and solvency.

How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?

Mr.Heiko Hesse

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