Mrs.Esther Perez Ruiz

Mr.Igor Lebrun

Real unit labor costs (RULC) growth differentials between euro area members have persisted since EMU began and even widened out in the run-up to the crisis. This paper focuses on the causes underlying such dispersion. According to our empirical findings, persistent RULC growth differentials can be attributed to divergent evolutions in capital-output ratios, nominal effective exchange rates and country-specific institutional features, coupled with an increased sensitivity of RULC to fundamentals following the shift in the monetary regime. Because these RULC growth discrepancies in EMU partly result from heterogeneous structural characteristics, policy action seeking more homogenous regulation across the euro area can make a significant contribution to reduce them.

How Big, How Benign and How Reversible?

Real Unit Labor Costs Differentials in EMU+L4700

Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques

This paper develops comparable financial conditions indices (FCIs) for the six large and most financially-integrated Latin American economies (LA6) by following Korobilis (2013) and Koop and Korobilis (2014). The main findings are as follows. First, the estimated FCIs are influenced by a commodity cycle, a global financial cycle, as well as country-specific episodes of financial distress. Second, by early 2017, financial conditions remained favorable in most LA6 economies relative to historical standards. Third, the impact of financial shocks on economic activity widely varies across LA6 and is otherwise found to be stronger in periods of financial stress. Fourth, exposure to regional financial spillovers also differs across LA6.

How Financial Conditions Matter Differently across Latin America

Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza

The paper presents a simple supply side, general equilibrium model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of labor tax cuts. The model assumes that output is produced using capital, unskilled and skilled workers, and public servants. Wage formation for skilled workers features a Blanchflower-Oswald wage curve, while the labor supply for unskilled workers is very elastic around the minimum wage for small changes in employment. The model is calibrated for France and used to estimate the output and employment effects induced by two recent tax reforms: the Crédit d’Impôt pour la Compétitivité et l’Emploi (CICE) and the Pacte de Solidarité Responsabilité (RSP). We find that the tax cuts, if not offset by other fiscal measures, would contribute overall to creating around 200,000 jobs in the short run (600,000 jobs in the long run). Since the model abstracts from demand side effects, the results should be interpreted as providing estimates of the effect of tax measures on potential output and potential employment.

Mrs.Esther Perez Ruiz

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