Nozer D. Singpurwalla

James S. Hodges

Robert E. Kass

Constantine Gatsonis

Robert E. McCulloch

Peter Rossi

This third volume of case studies presents detailed applications of Bayesian statistical analysis, emphasising the scientific context. The papers were presented and discussed at a workshop held at Carnegie-Mellon University, and this volume - dedicated to the memory of Morrie Groot-reproduces six invited papers, each with accompanying invited discussion, and nine contributed papers with the focus on econometric applications.

Volume III

Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics

The past few years have witnessed dramatic advances in computational methods for Bayesian inference. As a result, Bayesian approaches to solving a wide variety of problems in data analysis and decision-making have become feasible, and there is currently a growth spurt in the application of Bayesian methods. The purpose of this volume is to present several detailed examples of applications of Bayesian thinking, with an emphasis on the scientific or technological context of the problem being solved. The papers collected here were presented and discussed at a Workshop held at Carnegie-Mellon University, September 29 through October 1, 1991. There are five ma jor articles, each with two discussion pieces and a reply. These articles were invited by us following a public solicitation of abstracts. The problems they address are diverse, but all bear on policy decision-making. Though not part of our original design for the Workshop, that commonality of theme does emphasize the usefulness of Bayesian meth ods in this arena. Along with the invited papers were several additional commentaries of a general nature; the first comment was invited and the remainder grew out of the discussion at the Workshop. In addition there are nine contributed papers, selected from the thirty-four presented at the Workshop, on a variety of applications. This collection of case studies illustrates the ways in which Bayesian methods are being incorporated into statistical practice. The strengths (and limitations) of the approach become apparent through the examples.

Simon P. Wilson

In establishing a framework for dealing with uncertainties in software engineering, and for using quantitative measures in related decision-making, this text puts into perspective the large body of work having statistical content that is relevant to software engineering. Aimed at computer scientists, software engineers, and reliability analysts who have some exposure to probability and statistics, the content is pitched at a level appropriate for research workers in software reliability, and for graduate level courses in applied statistics computer science, operations research, and software engineering.

Reliability and Risk

Statistical Methods in Software Engineering

We all like to know how reliable and how risky certain situations are, and our increasing reliance on technology has led to the need for more precise assessments than ever before. Such precision has resulted in efforts both to sharpen the notions of risk and reliability, and to quantify them. Quantification is required for normative decision-making, especially decisions pertaining to our safety and wellbeing. Increasingly in recent years Bayesian methods have become key to such quantifications. Reliability and Risk provides a comprehensive overview of the mathematical and statistical aspects of risk and reliability analysis, from a Bayesian perspective. This book sets out to change the way in which we think about reliability and survival analysis by casting them in the broader context of decision-making. This is achieved by: Providing a broad coverage of the diverse aspects of reliability, including: multivariate failure models, dynamic reliability, event history analysis, non-parametric Bayes, competing risks, co-operative and competing systems, and signature analysis. Covering the essentials of Bayesian statistics and exchangeability, enabling readers who are unfamiliar with Bayesian inference to benefit from the book. Introducing the notion of “composite reliability”, or the collective reliability of a population of items. Discussing the relationship between notions of reliability and survival analysis and econometrics and financial risk. Reliability and Risk can most profitably be used by practitioners and research workers in reliability and survivability as a source of information, reference, and open problems. It can also form the basis of a graduate level course in reliability and risk analysis for students in statistics, biostatistics, engineering (industrial, nuclear, systems), operations research, and other mathematically oriented scientists, wherein the instructor could supplement the material with examples and problems.

A Bayesian Perspective

United States. Office of Naval Research

Gorti V. L. Narasimham

Victor F. Castellino

GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV WASHINGTON D C INST FOR MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING.

This paper compares the predictive performance of the BEA quarterly econometric model with that of a parsimonious Box-Jenkins type autogressive integrated moving average model for univariate time series analysis. For this purpose, GNP is the variable of interest. This paper complements that by C.R. Nelson (1972) on the predictive performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN model versus Box-Jenkins type models, and that by T.H. Naylor, et al. (1972) on the Wharton model versus Box-Jenkins type models.

Nozer D. Singpurwalla

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