Paul J. H. Schoemaker

how far will the biosciences take us?

Chips, clones, and living beyond 100

J. Edward Russo

Two experts in business management show how to avoid the ten common pitfalls that ensanre decision makers. The very latest research in the fields of business and psychology has been distilled into practical training methods that will save readers from ever making a bad decision again.

Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-making and how to Overcome Them

Decision Traps

Margo Hittleman

Presents a guide to making effective business decisions, filled with worksheets, questionnaires, case studies, and techniques that will assist all levels of management in addressing problems, making informed decisions, and converting opinions into insights.

Getting it Right the First Time

Winning Decisions

George S. Day

How organizations can anticipate threats, spot opportunities, and act faster when the time is right; with rich examples including Adobe, MasterCard, and Amazon. When turbulence is the new normal, an organization's survival depends on vigilant leadership that can anticipate threats, spot opportunities, and act quickly when the time is right. In See Sooner, Act Faster, strategy experts George Day and Paul Schoemaker offer tools for thriving when digital advances intensify turbulence. Vigilant firms have greater foresight than their rivals, while vulnerable firms often miss early signals of external threats and organizational challenges. Charles Schwab, for example, was early to see and act on the promise of “robo-advisors”; Honeywell, on the other hand, stumbled when Nest Labs came out first with a “smart” thermostat. Day and Schoemaker show leaders how to assess their vigilance capabilities and cultivate insight and foresight throughout their organizations. They draw on a range of cases, including Adobe and Intuit's move to the cloud, Shell's investment in clean energy, and MasterCard's early recognition of digital challenges. Day and Schoemaker describe how to allocate the scarce resource of attention, how to detect weak signals and separate them from background noise, and how to respond strategically before competitors do. The challenge is not just to act faster but to act wisely, and the authors suggest ways to create dynamic portfolios of options. Finally, they offer an action agenda, with tips for fostering vigilance and agility throughout an organization. The rewards are stronger market positions, higher profits and growth, more motivated employees, and organization longevity.

How Vigilant Leaders Thrive in an Era of Digital Turbulence

See Sooner, Act Faster

Howard Kunreuther

Paul R. Kleindorfer

Howard G. Kunreuther

The long-awaited textbook on the developing field of decision sciences. This book compares different types of decision making and emphasises the link between problem finding and problem solving.

An Integrative Perspective

Decision Sciences

If you have ever flown in an airplane, used electricity from a nuclear power plant, or taken an antibiotic, you have benefited from a brilliant mistake. Schoemaker proveds a practical roadmap for using mistakes to accelerate learning for your organization and yourself.

Finding Success on the Far Side of Failure

Brilliant Mistakes

Reveals a systematic process for developing peripheral vision and offers practical tools and strategies for building "vigilant organisations" that are constantly attuned to changes in the environment. This book, through detailed case studies ranging from LED lighting to low-carb foods to children's dolls, shows how vigilant organisations win

Detecting the Weak Signals that Will Make Or Break Your Company

Peripheral Vision

The Quest for Optimality

Harvard Business Review

Robert S. Kaplan

Philip E. Tetlock

Condoleezza Rice

Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks? If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear. This book will inspire you to: Avoid the most common errors in risk management Understand the three distinct categories of risk and tailor your risk-management processes accordingly Embrace uncertainty as a key element of breakthrough innovation Adopt best practices for mitigating political threats Upgrade your organization's forecasting capabilities to gain a competitive edge Detect and neutralize cyberattacks originating inside your company This collection of articles includes "Managing Risks: A New Framework," by Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes; "How to Build Risk into Your Business Model," by Karan Girotra and Serguei Netessine; "The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management," by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel; "From Superstorms to Factory Fires: Managing Unpredictable Supply-Chain Disruptions," by David Simchi-Levi, William Schmidt, and Yehua Wei; "Is It Real? Can We Win? Is It Worth Doing?: Managing Risk and Reward in an Innovation Portfolio," by George S. Day; “Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company's Judgment," by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock; "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk," by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart; "How to Scandal-Proof Your Company," by Paul Healy and George Serafeim; "Beating the Odds When You Launch a New Venture," by Clark Gilbert and Matthew Eyring; "The Danger from Within," by David M. Upton and Sadie Creese; and "Future-Proof Your Climate Strategy," by Joseph E. Aldy and Gianfranco Gianfrate.

HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Risk (with bonus article "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk" by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart)

Steven Krupp

"The number one business challenge is winning the long game by being more strategic: developing the skills to look outside the four walls of the organization and see the world from the future back. Steven Krupp and Paul J.H. Schoemaker bridge the gap between what many see as the separate domains of strategy and leadership to show how to develop the discipline of strategic leadership in a world of growing uncertainty"--Amazon.com.

How Strategic Leaders Shape the Future

Winning the Long Game

Emerging technologies such as the Internet and biotechnology have the potential to create new industries and transform existing ones. Incumbent firms, despite their superior resources, often lose out to smaller rivals in developing emerging technologies. Why do these incumbents have so much difficulty with disruptive technologies? How can they anticipate and overcome their handicaps? Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies presents insights, tools, and frameworks from leading busi-ness thinkers based on the research of Wharton's Emerging Technologies Management Research Program. This pioneering industry-academic partnership, established in 1994, is one of the longest and broadest initiatives on the management of emerging technologies. For the first time, this book distills the insights from the program into a single volume for managers, covering a wide range of issues related to the successful management of emerging technologies. The editors contend that managing emerging technologies represents a "different game," requiring a different set of management skills, frameworks, and strategies than those used by established firms to manage existing technologies. In this book, experts from diverse fields examine key issues such as: Common pitfalls and potential solutions for incumbent firms in managing emerging technologies Strategies for assessing the potential of new markets and designing technologies to take advantage of market "lumpiness" The need for scenario planning and "disciplined imagination" to develop strategies under uncertainty The limits of patents in protecting gains from technology, and the use of lead time and other strategies The power of innovative financial strategies and the use of real options in making investments Using alliances and new organizational forms Developing a "customized workplace" Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies represents a powerful survival kit for managers "dropped behind the lines" of these new technologies. The authors provide a comprehensive set of tools and insights that will help you understand the new challenges and develop effective strategies to succeed at this different game. Praise for WHARTON on MANAGING EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES "New technologies are transforming markets, businesses, and society at an ever-increasing rate. We have a critical need for better road maps for managing our way through this new terrain. This book offers critical insights and useful new models for thinking through these challenges." —Professor Thomas Gerrity, Director of the Wharton e-Commerce Forum "Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies covers the emerging technology landscape-from strategy to finance to human resources-in a way that only a group of top scholars from many disciplines could do. Insightful, accessible, and smart ideas that make for 'must reading' for thoughtful executives in today's turbulent economy. The authors prove, once again, the power of research to yield deep insight into tough business problems." —Kathleen M. Eisenhardt, Professor of Strategy and Organization, Stanford University and coauthor, Competing on the Edge: Strategy As Structured Chaos "Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies offers valuable insight for large established companies seeking growth in a dynamic market of rapid technological advancement. The entertaining cases and thoughtful analyses help managers create strategies, select options, and organize to successfully manage the interface between imagination and knowledge." —Jerry Karabelas, PhD, CEO, Novartis Pharma AG

Paul J. H. Schoemaker

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