Paul K. Davis

from ancient times to the present

Encyclopedia of Invasions and Conquests

Angela O'Mahony

Jonathan Pfautz

Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems

Dorothy Davis

This volume is a collection of all-new original essays covering everything from feminist to postcolonial readings of the play as well as source queries and analyses of historical performances of the play. The Merchant of Venice is a collection of seventeen new essays that explore the concepts of anti-Semitism, the work of Christopher Marlowe, the politics of commerce and making the play palatable to a modern audience. The characters, Portia and Shylock, are examined in fascinating detail. With in-depth analyses of the text, the play in performance and individual characters, this book promises to be the essential resource on the play for all Shakespeare enthusiasts.

A History of Shopping

Christian Curriden

RAND researchers describe an experimental "thinking-Red" approach to analysis, wargaming, and other exercises to help inform strategies to avoid aggression or escalation in a crisis. It features alternative models of the adversary.

Quelling Perfect Storms

Influencing Adversary States

Russell D. Shaver

Justin Beck

An analytical framework and methodology for capability-area reviews is described, along with new tools to support capabilities analysis and strategic-level defense planning in the Defense Department and the Services. BCOT generates and screens preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) is used to evaluate options that pass screening. The concepts are illustrated with applications to Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense. Recommendations are made for further defense-planning research.

Portfolio-analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options

Gaga Gvineria

This report describes a methodology and prototype tool, the Building Blocks to Composite Options Tool (BCOT), for identifying good candidate options to use in investment analysis.

From Building Blocks to Composite Options and Preliminary Screening

Finding Candidate Options for Investment

Description of a methodology and a prototype tool, Building Blocks To Composite Options Tool (BCOT), for identifying investment options for defense capability areas. It ensures that a broad range of options is considered initially, then uses a screening technique to narrow the range to those meriting more-extensive assessment in a fuller portfolio-analysis framework. BCOT extends classic economics and operations-research techniques and suggests pragmatic approximations, particularly in capabilities-based planning.

Indian Expeditionary Force D landed at the head of the Persian Gulf on 7 November 1914 and quickly gained control of the area around Basra. Since the British army was already involved in drawn-out trench warfare in France, and the outlook there was far from bright, it seemed odd that the British government would commit troops to another campaign. The traditionally accepted rationale behind this move has been the protection of oil supplies used by the Royal Navy - but the campaign veered seriously away from its original intent. What followed was perhaps the finest example of blind political ambition in wartime. In April 1915, another division was added to Force D; and its new commander, General Sir John Nixon, arrived in Mesopotamia with orders to protect the oil supply, establish British control in the province of Basra, and prepare plans for a possible future offensive on Baghdad. The campaign against the Turks was a model of daring and sacrifice in the Middle Eastern desert. Successive victories encouraged the authorities in India to expand the campaign to aim at Baghdad. At this point the campaign was doomed to failure. The lack of direction, policy, and cooperation between Nixon, India, and London resulted in the total lack of a suitable logistic framework in Mesopotamia. An unwitting conspiracy of hesitant and uninformed leaders in London, greedy politicians in India, and aggressive "men on the spot" brought about the longest siege in British history and one of the great military disasters of this century. The appalling suffering and loss of the 6th Indian Division provoked such a public outcry in Britain that the government was obliged to institute a parliamentary investigation. The resulting Mesopotamia Commission rocked the nation and the government alike. This book probes the rationale behind the British interest in the Middle East, the invasion of Mesopotamia, the successes that drove the political aspirations higher, and the brilliance of the leadership and soldiery in contrast to the blindness of zealous politicians. It gives the most in-depth analysis of the Mesopotamia Commission anywhere and apportions blame where it is due and forgiveness where it is necessary. It is a story of soldiers at their best who were sacrificed for politics at its worst.

The British Mesopotamian Campaign and Commission

Ends and Means

Osonde A. Osoba

Timothy R. Gulden

Katharine Sieck

Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles--some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices--then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.

Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

This volume describes frontiers in social-behavioral modeling for contexts as diverse as national security, health, and on-line social gaming. Recent scientific and technological advances have created exciting opportunities for such improvements. However, the book also identifies crucial scientific, ethical, and cultural challenges to be met if social-behavioral modeling is to achieve its potential. Doing so will require new methods, data sources, and technology. The volume discusses these, including those needed to achieve and maintain high standards of ethics and privacy. The result should be a new generation of modeling that will advance science and, separately, aid decision-making on major social and security-related subjects despite the myriad uncertainties and complexities of social phenomena. Intended to be relatively comprehensive in scope, the volume balances theory-driven, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. The latter may be rapidly iterative, as when artificial-intelligence methods are coupled with theory-driven insights to build models that are sound, comprehensible and usable in new situations. With the intent of being a milestone document that sketches a research agenda for the next decade, the volume draws on the wisdom, ideas and suggestions of many noted researchers who draw in turn from anthropology, communications, complexity science, computer science, defense planning, economics, engineering, health systems, medicine, neuroscience, physics, political science, psychology, public policy and sociology. In brief, the volume discusses: Cutting-edge challenges and opportunities in modeling for social and behavioral science Special requirements for achieving high standards of privacy and ethics New approaches for developing theory while exploiting both empirical and computational data Issues of reproducibility, communication, explanation, and validation Special requirements for models intended to inform decision making about complex social systems

Kim Cragin

Employs an interdisciplinary, social science approach to various counterterrorism questions, problems, and policies.

Paul K. Davis

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