Matthew Thompson

Peter Webley

Karin Riley

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction

Modeling and Decision Support

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

John Lin

Dominik Brunner

Christoph Gerbig

Andreas Stohl

Ashok Luhar

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of theGeophysical Monograph Series, Volume 200. Trajectory-based (“Lagrangian”) atmospheric transportand dispersion modeling has gained in popularity and sophisticationover the previous several decades. It is common practice now forresearchers around the world to apply Lagrangian models to a widespectrum of issues. Lagrangian Modeling of the Atmosphere is a comprehensivevolume that includes sections on Lagrangian modeling theory, modelapplications, and tests against observations. Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of theGeophysical Monograph Series. Comprehensive coverage of trajectory-based atmosphericdispersion modeling Important overview of a widely used modeling tool Sections look at modeling theory, application of models, andtests against observations

Lagrangian Modeling of the Atmosphere

Peter Webley

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