Robert Schlaifer

Analysis of Decisions Under Uncertainty

Howard Raiffa

John Pratt

The Bayesian revolution in statistics—where statistics is integrated with decision making in areas such as management, public policy, engineering, and clinical medicine—is here to stay. Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory states the case and in a self-contained, comprehensive way shows how the approach is operational and relevant for real-world decision making under uncertainty. Starting with an extensive account of the foundations of decision theory, the authors develop the intertwining concepts of subjective probability and utility. They then systematically and comprehensively examine the Bernoulli, Poisson, and Normal (univariate and multivariate) data generating processes. For each process they consider how prior judgments about the uncertain parameters of the process are modified given the results of statistical sampling, and they investigate typical decision problems in which the main sources of uncertainty are the population parameters. They also discuss the value of sampling information and optimal sample sizes given sampling costs and the economics of the terminal decision problems. Unlike most introductory texts in statistics, Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory integrates statistical inference with decision making and discusses real-world actions involving economic payoffs and risks. After developing the rationale and demonstrating the power and relevance of the subjective, decision approach, the text also examines and critiques the limitations of the objective, classical approach.

Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory

"In the field of statistical decision theory, Raiffa and Schlaifer have sought to develop new analytic techniques by which the modern theory of utility and subjective probability can actually be applied to the economic analysis of typical sampling problems." —From the foreword to their classic work Applied Statistical Decision Theory. First published in the 1960s through Harvard University and MIT Press, the book is now offered in a new paperback edition from Wiley

Applied Statistical Decision Theory

John W. Pratt

Frank P Ramsey Professor of Managerial Economics (Emeritus) Howard Raiffa

John Winsor Pratt

Robert O. Schlaifer

They then examine the Bernoulli, Poisson, and Normal (univariate and multivariate) data generating processes.

Robert Schlaifer

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