Robert U. Ayres

Challenges for Decision-makers

Uncertain Futures

Motivation of the Study CIM is an abbreviation for Computer Integrated Manufacturing (see Sec tion 1. 4, Chapter 1). It is an acronym that has become fairly weIl known in recent years in manufacturing and related engineering circles, although most laymen have never heard the term. The question naturaIly arises: why should a multinational, multidisciplinary organization like IIASA under take a major study of such a seemingly arcane topic at this time of glasnost, perestroika, nuclear disarmament, and concern with global climate change, among other issues of global significance competing for our attention? The short answer to this rhetorical question is that we think a new industrial revolution is under way. If the first industrial revolution was the substitution of steam power for human and animal muscles, the present revolution is the substitution of electronic sensors for human eyes and ears, and computers for human brains, at least in a certain category of routine 'on-line' manufacturing operations. Its consequences may be as far reaching (and as unexpected) as the consequences of the 'first' industrial revolution, which was just beginning about two centuries ago. The industrial importance of steam power was, of course, obvious to the farsighted entrepreneurs who actively developed and invested in it, from Roebuck, Boulton, and the Wilkinsons to the Stephensons. But the larger and longer-run implications of its use - from 'satanic mills', child labour, and Marxism to acid rain and climate change - were not foreseen at aIl.

Volume I: Revolution in Progress

Computer Integrated Manufacturing

Eminent physicist and economist, Robert Ayres, examines the history of technology as a change agent in society, focusing on societal roots rather than technology as an autonomous, self-perpetuating phenomenon. With rare exceptions, technology is developed in response to societal needs that have evolutionary roots and causes. In our genus Homo, language evolved in response to a need for our ancestors to communicate, both in the moment, and to posterity. A band of hunters had no chance in competition with predators that were larger and faster without this type of organization, which eventually gave birth to writing and music. The steam engine did not leap fully formed from the brain of James Watt. It evolved from a need to pump water out of coal mines, driven by a need to burn coal instead of firewood, in turn due to deforestation. Later, the steam engine made machines and mechanization possible. Even quite simple machines increased human productivity by a factor of hundreds, if not thousands. That was the Industrial Revolution. If we count electricity and the automobile as a second industrial revolution, and the digital computer as the beginning of a third, the world is now on the cusp of a fourth revolution led by microbiology. These industrial revolutions have benefited many in the short term, but devastated the Earths ecosystems. Can technology save the human race from the catastrophic consequences of its past success? That is the question this book will try to answer.

Can Technology Save Humanity from Extinction?

The History and Future of Technology

Statistical Measures of Unsustainability

The Transition to an Ecologically Sustainable Economy

Eco-restructuring

Benjamin Warr

It gives me great pleasure to review this important book. I recommend it highly to any physicist with an interest or curiosity about this economy thing within which we operate. . . There is no excuse not to get this invaluable volume onto your bookshelf. Simon Roberts, Institute of Physics Energy Group This book addresses a very important topic, namely economic growth analysis from the angle of energy and material flows. The treatment is well balanced in terms of research and interpretation of the broader literature. The book not only contains a variety of empirical indicators, statistical analyses and insights, but also offers an unusually complete and pluralistic view on theorizing about economic growth and technological change. This results in a number of refreshing perspectives on known ideas and literatures. The text is so attractively written that I found it very difficult to stop reading. All in all, this is a very original and important contribution to the everlasting debate on growth versus environment. Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, University of Barcelona, Spain and Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Would you want your great-grandchildren in 2100AD to have a 22nd-century industrial economy? If so, read this book to grasp how strongly wealth depends on energy and its efficient use. Start treating fossil energy not as continuing income, but as one-time energy capital to spend on efficiency and long-term sustainable energy production. Otherwise, your descendants will inherit a broken 20th-century economy that only worked with cheap fossil fuels. They will not be rich and they will wonder what their ancestors were thinking. John R. Mashey, PhD, former Chief Scientist, Silicon Graphics Current economic theory attributes most income growth to technical progress. However, since technical progress can neither be defined nor measured, no one really knows what policies will encourage income growth. Ayres and Warr show that access to useful work, which can be defined and measured, explain the bulk of post-1900 income changes in Japan, Britain and the USA. They see rising real prices for fossil fuel and stagnating efficiencies of converting raw energy into useful work as a threat to continued income growth. This brilliant and original work has profound policy implications for future income growth without significant improvements in energy conversion efficiency. Thomas Casten, Chairman, Recycled Energy Development LLC Following the up-and-down energy shock of 2008, Ayres and Warr offer a unique analysis critical to our economic future. They argue that useful work produced by energy and energy services is far more important to overall GDP growth than conventional economic theory assumes. Their new theory, based on extensive empirical and theoretical analysis, has important implications for economists, businessmen and policymakers for anybody concerned with our economic future. Ayres and Warr argue persuasively that economic growth is not only endogenous but has been driven for the past two centuries largely by the declining effective cost of energy. If their new theory is correct, the inevitable future rise of the real cost of energy (beyond the $147 oil price peak in July 2008), could halt economic growth in the US and other advanced countries unless we dramatically improve energy with technology. J. Paul Horne, independent international market economist The historic link between output (GDP) growth and employment has weakened. Since there is no quantitively verifiable economic theory to explain past growth, this unique book explores the fundamental relationship between thermodynamics (physical work) and economics. The authors take a realistic approach to explaining the relationship between technological progress, thermodynamic efficiency and economic growth. Their findings are a step toward the integration of neo-classical and evolutionary perspectives on endogenous economic growth, concluding in a fundam

How Energy and Work Drive Material Prosperity

The Economic Growth Engine

Arnim von Gleich

Stefan Gößling-Reisemann

Metals have been vital to human civilization for many thousands of years. Their durability and recyclability should make them ideal materials for a sustainable economy. This book assembles experts from many fields to discuss the conditions and limits of sustainable metals management. The contributors examine the theoretical ideas and goals of sustainability, and apply them across the metal making and trading process.

Securing Our Future - Steps Towards a Closed Loop Economy

Sustainable Metals Management

Leslie Ayres

'The editors of this handbook have brought together 58 of the world's greatest environmental systems experts. These professionals have, in 46 specific topic headings, divided into six major sections, provided very insightful information and guidance as to what industrial ecology entails, how it can be implemented, and its benefits . . . a very valuable tool . . . This book provides essential information to mid- and top-level management that can enable industry to make more prudent business decisions regarding the manufacturing of its products.' - Robert John Klancko, Environmental Practice Industrial ecology is coming of age and this superb book brings together leading scholars to present a state-of-the-art overviews of the subject.

A Handbook of Industrial Ecology

Why the global economy has become increasingly unstable, and how financial "de-carbonization" could break the pattern of bubble-driven wealth destruction.

Robert U. Ayres

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