Ruchir Sharma

Shaped by his twenty-five years traveling the world, and enlivened by encounters with villagers from Rio to Beijing, tycoons, and presidents, Ruchir Sharma’s The Rise and Fall of Nations rethinks the "dismal science" of economics as a practical art. Narrowing the thousands of factors that can shape a country’s fortunes to ten clear rules, Sharma explains how to spot political, economic, and social changes in real time. He shows how to read political headlines, black markets, the price of onions, and billionaire rankings as signals of booms, busts, and protests. Set in a post-crisis age that has turned the world upside down, replacing fast growth with slow growth and political calm with revolt, Sharma’s pioneering book is an entertaining field guide to understanding change in this era or any era.

Forces of Change in the Post-crisis World

The Rise and Fall of Nations

An columnist and investor in emerging markets discusses how the global economy will be shaped in the future by focusing on Nigeria, Indonesia and Poland instead of the superstars of the last decade, China, Russia and Brazil.

Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles

A 25-year Journey Through India

Democracy on the Road

Capitalism didn’t fail, it was ruined...

What went wrong with capitalism? Ruchir Sharma’s account is not like any you will have heard before. He says progressives are right, in part, when they mock modern capitalism as “socialism for the rich.” For a century, governments have expanded in just about every measurable dimension, from spending to regulation and the scale of financial rescues when the economy wobbles. The result is expensive state guarantees for everyone—bailouts for the rich, entitlements for the middle class, welfare for the poor.

Taking you back to the 19th century, Sharma shows how completely the reflexes of government have changed: from hands-off to hands-on, from doing too little to help anyone in hard times to today trying to prevent anyone suffering any economic pain, ever. Trading sins of omission and indifference for excesses of spending and meddling, governments from the United States to Europe and Japan have pumped so much money into their economies that financial markets can no longer invest all that capital efficiently.

Inadvertently, they have fueled the rise of monopolies, “zombie” firms, and billionaires. They have made capitalism less fair and less efficient, which is slowing economic growth and fueling popular anger. The first step to a cure is a correct diagnose of the problem. Capitalism has been badly distorted by constant government intervention and the relentless spread of a bailout culture. Building an even bigger state will only double down on what ruined capitalism in the first place.

A century of expanding government has distorted financial markets, stoked massive inequality, and soaked America in debt.

What Went Wrong with Capitalism

The Rules of Change in the Post-Crisis World

Rise and Fall of Nations

This short primer distils Ruchir Sharma's decades of global analytic experience into ten rules for identifying nations that are poised to take off or crash. A wake-up call to economists who failed to foresee every recent crisis, including the cataclysm of 2008, 10 Rules is full of insights on signs of political, economic, and social change. Sharma explains, for example, why autocrats are bad for the economy; robots are a blessing, not a curse; and consumer prices don't tell you all you need to know about inflation. He shows how currency crises begin with the flight of knowledgeable locals, not evil foreigners; how debt crises start in private companies, not government; and why the best news for any country is none at all. Rethinking economics as a practical art, 10 Rules is a must-read for business, political and academic leaders who want to understand the most important forces that shape a nation's future.

The 10 Rules of Successful Nations

Una obra imprescindible que analiza desde la seriedad del trabajo documentado y del saber económico la burbuja inmobiliaria que se está formando en los países del BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India, China) y de su posible caída. Cambiará tu visión del mundo. Nadie puede decir con seguridad cuáles son los factores que posibilitan o no el crecimiento de un país. No existe una fórmula mágica; tan sólo una lista de ingredientes: permitir el flujo libre de mercado de bienes, dinero e individuos, fomentar el ahorro, hacer valer el Estado de derecho y proteger los derechos de propiedad, construir buenas carreteras, etcétera. No obstante, estos aspectos son meras instrucciones de uso. Ni la aplicación de los mismos ni su combinación garantizan el crecimiento de una nación en un momento dado. Para identificar los países que se desmarcarán en la carrera por el crecimiento es crucial no perder de vista cuáles son las fuerzas económicas y políticas que estánen juego en este momento. Aldous Huxley dijo una vez que «viajar es descubrir que todo el mundo se equivoca respecto a otros países». Partiendo de esta observación histórica Ruchir Sharma, experto en Mercados de Valores Emergentes y Macroeconomía en Morgan Stanley, nos propone un recorrido único por las economías más interesantes del mundo emergente. Una obra inteligente y lúcida que nos plantea una nueva realidad: después de una década frenética aquellos mercados que fueron reconocidos a nivel mundial como emergentes están a punto de frenar el ritmo de crecimiento. ¿Qué nuevos países serán capaces de desafiarlos? Reseñas: «Ruchir Sharma ha escrito una obra fascinante y capital; nada menos que una nueva guía de economía global. Gracias a una prosa lúcida da la vuelta a algunos de los preceptos tradicionales, señala nuevas tendencias y descubre nuevas fuentes de crecimiento. Países emergentes es uno de los libros acerca del panorama económico actual más interesantes que he leído en años». Fareed Zakaria, autor de The Post-American World «Uno de los 21 libros que leer en 2012». Foreign Policy «El director de la división de mercados emergentes de Morgan Stanley nos lleva alrededor del mundo en busca de nuevos mercados listos para despegar. Sharma es capaz de acercarnos con habilidad a aquellos países que defraudarán o excederán expectativas en los próximos años. Para inversores y para todo tipo de lector que quiere entender el panorama de la economía global en mitad de la gran recesión». Kirkus Reviews «Un manual para guiarnos, un gran mapa sobre el nuevo y mejor equilibrado mundo en el que vamos a vivir». The Independent «No encontrarás una lectura mejor si lo que buscas es un libro que te aclare el panorama mundial de países en expansión». Jonathan Anderson, Wall Street Journal «Accesible para los novatos y revelador para los veteranos, las reflexiones de Sharma ponen patas arriba las creencias populares sobre cómo triunfar en el mercado global actual». Publishers Weekly «Es refrescante leer Países emergentes pues ofrece una visión meditada y justificada que incluye previsiones sobre el implacable ascenso de los países BRIC». Financial Times

En busca del milagro económico

Países emergentes

'The old rule of forecasting was to make as many forecasts as possible and publicise the ones you got right. The new rule is to forecast so far in the future, no one will know you got it wrong.' Ruchir Sharma does neither. In Breakout Nations he shows why the economic 'mania' of the twenty-first century, with its unshakeable faith in the power of emerging markets - especially China - to continue growing at the astoundingly rapid and uniform pace of the last decade, is wrong. The next economic success stories will not be where we think they are. In this provocative new book, Sharma analyses why the basic laws of economic gravity (such as the law of large numbers, which says that the richer you are the harder it is to grow your wealth at a rapid pace) are already pulling China, Russia, Brazil and other vast emerging markets back to earth. To understand which nations will thrive and which will falter in a world reshaped by slower growth, it is time to start looking at the emerging markets as individual cases. Sharma argues that we must abandon our current obsession with global macro trends and the fad for all-embracing theories. He offers instead a more discerning, nuanced view, identifying specific factors - economic, political, social - which will make for slow or fast growth. Spending much of his professional life travelling in these countries as Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, Sharma is uniquely placed to present a first-hand insider's account of these new markets and the changes they are undergoing. As the years of unbelievably swift growth draw to their close, this book shows us how it is time for both investors and economists to halt their blind thrust towards an impossible future.

Ruchir Sharma

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