Samuel L. Popkin

"In 2016, a businessman so discredited that he could no longer get a casino license or borrow money from an American bank was elected President of the United States of America. How did this happen? It is easy to mock and ridicule Donald Trump as if he is the problem. In fact, he is a symptom of a much larger issue that has been bedeviling the GOP for nearly two decades: an intraparty crackup of massive proportions. By "crackup," I mean a breakdown of the fragile alliances between coalitions within a party that prevents its leaders from developing goals they can deliver on when they control the White House and majorities in the House and Senate. This introductory chapter explains why party crackups are inevitable in a federal system with national money and local primaries. But this is the first time -- for either party - that no group within the party could create a synthesis of old orthodoxies and new realities that altered the party's direction enough to build a new consensus"--

The Republican Implosion and the Future of Presidential Politics

Crackup

Samuel Kernell

In 1986 a unique symposium in the history of American politics took place. Eight former White House Chiefs of Staff representing six different Presidents from Eisenhower to Carter gathered to talk about twenty-five years of the Presidency. The original transcripts have been edited to provide annotations when necessary without impeding the flow of this lively and candid debate. In 1986 a unique symposium in the history of American politics took place. Eight former White House Chiefs of Staff representing six different Presidents from Eisenhower to Carter gathered to talk about twenty-five years of the Presidency. The original transcripts have been edited to provide annotations when necessary without impeding the flow of this lively and candid debate.

Twenty-five Years of Managing the Presidency

Chief of Staff

There are two winners in every presidential election campaign: The inevitable winner when it begins--such as Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton in 2008--and the inevitable victor after it ends. In The Candidate, Samuel Popkin explains the difference between them. While plenty of political insiders have written about specific campaigns, only Popkin--drawing on a lifetime of presidential campaign experience and extensive research--analyzes what it takes to win the next campaign. The road to the White House is littered with geniuses of campaigns past. Why doesn't practice make perfect? Why is experience such a poor teacher? Why are the same mistakes replayed again and again? Based on detailed analyses of the winners--and losers--of the last 60 years of presidential campaigns, Popkin explains how challengers get to the White House, how incumbents stay there for a second term, and how successors hold power for their party. He looks in particular at three campaigns--George H.W. Bush's muddled campaign for reelection in 1992, Al Gore's flawed campaign for the presidency in 2000, and Hillary Clinton's mismanaged effort to win the nomination in 2008--and uncovers the lessons that Ronald Reagan can teach future candidates about teamwork. Throughout, Popkin illuminates the intricacies of presidential campaigns--the small details and the big picture, the surprising mistakes and the predictable miscues--in a riveting account of what goes on inside a campaign and what makes one succeed while another fails. As Popkin shows, a vision for the future and the audacity to run are only the first steps in a candidate's run for office. To truly survive the most grueling show on earth, presidential hopefuls have to understand the critical factors that Popkin reveals in The Candidate. In the wake of the 2012 election, Popkin's analysis looks remarkably prescient. Obama ran a strong incumbent-oriented campaign but made typical incumbent mistakes, as evidenced by his weak performance in the first debate. The Romney campaign correctly put power in the hands of a strong campaign manager, but it couldn't overcome the weaknesses of the candidate.

What it Takes to Win - and Hold - the White House

The Candidate

Mathew D. McCubbins

Arthur Lupia

Professor of Political Science Arthur Lupia

Advances in the social sciences are used to uncover cognitive foundations of social decision making.

Cognition, Choice, and the Bounds of Rationality

Elements of Reason

A consistently surprising analysis of how and why the Republican Party imploded in the last decade, setting the stage for the rise of Trump and extremist candidates more generally. In Crackup, the eminent American politics scholar Samuel L. Popkin tells the story of how the Republican Party fractured into uncompromising groups with irreconcilable demands. Changes in campaign finance laws and the proliferation of mass media opened the way for newly energized groups to split the party. The 2002 "McCain-Feingold" campaign finance reform bill aimed to weaken the power of big corporations and strengthen political parties by ending corporate donations to the parties. Instead, it weakened legislative leaders and made bipartisanship toxic. Popkin argues that moving money outside the political parties fueled the rise of single-issue advocacy groups and Super PACs funded by billionaires with pet issues. This allowed self-promoting politicians to undermine colleagues with an unprecedented use of tactics once only used to disrupt the other party. One such politician was Ted Cruz, who effectively promoted himself at the expense of the party, mobilized other obstructionists in Congress, and blocked compromises on immigration and healthcare. Into this abyss came Donald J. Trump, who took advantage of the party's inability to do anything for Republican voters struggling with economic decline. No other candidate, when forced to try to satisfy the irreconcilable demands of major donors and party leaders, could offer a credible alternative to his moon-promising bravado. A gripping structural explanation of why the GOP ended up with Trump as their standard bearer, Crackup forces us to look at the deeper forces set in motion two decades ago. It also reveals how self-fashioned rebels like Cruz are inevitable given the new rules of the game. Unless the system for financing elections changes, we will continue to see opportunists emerge-in both parties-to block intra-party compromise.

Samuel L. Popkin

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