Steven Pifer

Corneliu Bjola

Gülnur Aybet

Ilan Manor

Baiba Braze

Giorgi Badridze

Wang Yiwei

Wu Xinze

Biljana Vankovska

Ulrich Kühn

Şaban Kardaş

Omar Al-Ubaydli

Lyu Jinghua

Gaurav Kalwani

Türksoy Emen

Emrah Yıldırımçakar

Roger Kelly

TPQ’s Summer issue, NATO in 2020 and Beyond: New Strategies and Frontiers, offers insights on the Alliance’s current challenges and future security trends, while offering a look into Euro-Atlantic relations in the coming decade. It is clear that as the international security landscape is rapidly changing, member states’ capabilities, resilience, and most importantly, their commitment will be put to the test. In December 2019, NATO Leaders gathered in London to celebrate the Alliance’s 70-year history and assess the current state of transatlantic bonds. A growing list of both internal and external issues that will continue to be important for NATO were discussed, including Russia’s deployment of intermediate-range missiles, NATO’s expansion policy, China’s growing influence on the international stage, and strategic divisions among member states. The COVID-19 pandemic poses a particularly pressing challenge to NATO and its crisis response efforts. Headlining the Summer 2020 issue is NATO Assistant Secretary General Baiba Braze, whose article focuses on the Alliance’s resilience in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Underlining the importance of multilateralism in the face of global crises, Braze explains NATO’s role in supporting wider efforts to fight the virus, while also critically preventing the health crisis from spawning security crises. Braze concludes by outlining NATO’s 2030 vision, which prioritizes making the Alliance stronger politically, as well as extending its global reach. Discussing the future of the transatlantic relationship in a declining liberal world order, Senior Advisor to the President of Turkey Gülnur Aybet argues that the policies of certain allies have forced Turkey to become a “self-help” state. Aybet illustrates a revised and inclusive liberal world order in which Turkey is understood in its own context, and thus, approached accordingly. Other topics taken up in this issue are the consequences of the INF Treaty’s demise and NATO’s digital public diplomacy efforts. Several of our authors discuss NATO’s expansion policy, including North Macedonia’s recent accession as the Alliance’s 30th member and the prospective memberships of Ukraine and Georgia.

NATO in 2020 and Beyond: New Strategies and Frontiers

TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY - VOL. 19 - NO. 2 - SUMMER 2020

Michael E. O'Hanlon

For some observers, nuclear arms control is either a relic of the cold war, or a utopian dream about a denuclearized planet decades in the future. But, as Brookings scholars Steven Pifer and Michael O'Hanlon argue in The Opportunity, arms control can address some key security challenges facing Washington today and enhance both American and global security. Pifer and O'Hanlon make a compelling case for further arms control measures to reduce the nuclear threat to the United States and its allies, to strengthen strategic stability, to promote greater transparency regarding secretive nuclear arsenals, to create the possibility for significant defense budget savings, to bolster American credibility in the fight to curb nuclear proliferation, and to build a stronger and more sustainable U.S.-Russia relationship. President Obama gave priority to nuclear arms control early in his first term and, by all accounts, would like to be transformational on these questions. Can there be another major U.S.-Russia arms treaty? Can the tactical and surplus strategic nuclear warheads that have so far escaped controls be brought into such a framework? Can a modus vivendi be reached between the two countries on missile defense? And what of multilateral accords on nuclear testing and production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons? Pifer and O'Hanlon concisely frame the issues, the background, and the choices facing the president; provide practical policy recommendations, and put it all in clear and readable prose that will be easily understood by the layman.

Next Steps in Reducing Nuclear Arms

The Opportunity

Thomas Wright

Ted Piccone

President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He's facing a number of critical challenges ?the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order. This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories: ? Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. ? Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on. ? Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences. ? Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare. ? Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year. Contents:Big Bets ? Reassert U.S. Leadership of a Liberal Global Order by Robert Kagan and Ted Piccone ? Secure the Future of the Internet by Peter W. Singer and Ian Wallace ? Solidify the U.S.-Afghanistan Alliance by Michael E. O'Hanlon and Gen. John Allen (USMC, Ret.) ? Lift the Ban on U.S. Oil Exports by Tim Boersma and Charles K. Ebinger ? Strengthen Stability in Africa by Michael E. O'Hanlon Double Downs ? Broaden the Approach to Iran by Suzanne Maloney ? Pursue Regime Change in Syria by Michael Doran ? Return to the Asia Rebalance by Jonathan D. Pollack and Jeffrey A. Bader ? Reach Out to Cuba by Ted Piccone ? Avert Conflict in the South and East China Seas by Richard C. Bush III, Bruce Jones and Jonathan D. Pollack Black Swans ? Israeli-Palestinian Violence Erupts by Natan B. Sachs ? Putin's Russia Goes rogue by Fiona Hill and Steven Pifer ? Venezuela Breaks Down in Violence by Harold Trinkunas Nightmares ? Korean Crisis Prompts Confrontation with China by Jonathan D. Pollack and Richard C. Bush III ? Iran Nuclear Talks Fail by Robert Einhorn and Kenneth Pollack ? Afghanistan's Presidential Election Goes Awry by Vanda Felbab-Brown ? Muslim Brotherhood Radicalizes by Daniel L. Byman and Tamara Cofman Wittes Holds ? Avoid a U.S.-Saudi Divorce by Bruce Riedel ? Close the Deal on Free Trade by Mireya Solis ? Manage the Impact of Climate Change by Elizabeth Ferris ? Deepen Economic Ties to Turkey by Kemal Kirisci ? Beyond New START by Steven Pifer

A Presidential Briefing Book : Policy Recommendations for President Obama in 2014

Big Bets & Black Swans

This Council Special Report, commissioned by CFR's Center for Preventive Action, takes all these issues into account and examines the many challenges facing Ukraine. The report comprehensively analyzes the country's difficulties, related to both domestic conditions -- for example, fractious politics and deeply divided public opinion -- and foreign policy -- for example, issues related to the Black Sea Fleet and Ukrainian and European dependence on Russia's natural gas. The report then recommends ways for the United States to encourage Ukraine on a path of stability and integration with the West. It proposes measures to bolster high-level dialogue between Washington and Kiev, foster effective governance in Ukraine, and reduce Ukraine's susceptibility to Russian pressure. On the crucial NATO question, the report urges the United States to support continued Ukrainian integration with the alliance, though it recommends waiting to back concrete steps toward membership until Kiev achieves consensus on this point. One need not agree with this judgment to find Pifer's analysis of value. Averting Crisis in Ukraine takes a clear-eyed look at the issues that could cause instability -- or worse -- in Ukraine. But it also recommends practical steps that could increase the prospect that Ukraine will enjoy a prosperous, democratic, and independent future.

Averting Crisis in Ukraine

President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He's facing a number of critical challenges—the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order. This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories: • Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. • Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on. • Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences. • Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare. • Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year.

A Presidential Briefing Book

Big Bets and Black Swans 2014

Steven Pifer

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