Takeo Hoshi

Japanese Experience in the Postwar Reconstruction Period

Cleaning Up the Balance Sheets

Anil K Kashyap

In this book, Takeo Hoshi and Anil Kashyap examine the history of the Japanese financial system, from its nineteenth-century beginnings through the collapse of the 1990s that concluded with sweeping reforms. Combining financial theory with new data and original case studies, they show why the Japanese financial system developed as it did and how its history affects its ongoing evolution. The authors describe four major periods within Japan's financial history and speculate on the fifth, into which Japan is now moving. Throughout, they focus on four questions: How do households hold their savings? How is business financing provided? What range of services do banks provide? And what is the nature and extent of bank involvement in the management of firms? The answers provide a framework for analyzing the history of the past 150 years, as well as implications of the just-completed reforms known as the "Japanese Big Bang." Hoshi and Kashyap show that the largely successful era of bank dominance in postwar Japan is over, largely because deregulation has exposed the banks to competition from capital markets and foreign competitors. The banks are destined to shrink as households change their savings patterns and their customers continue to migrate to new funding sources. Securities markets are set to re-emerge as central to corporate finance and governance.

The Road to the Future

Corporate Financing and Governance in Japan

National Bureau of Economic Research

Takatoshi Itō

Recent academic papers have shown that the Japanese sovereign debt situation is not sustainable. The puzzle is that the bond rate has remained low and stable. Some suggest that the low yield can be explained by domestic residents' willingness to hold Japanese government bonds (JGBs) despite its low return, and that as long as domestic residents remain home-biased, the JGBs are sustainable. About 95% of JGBs are currently owned by domestic residents. This paper argues that even with such dominance of domestic investors, if the amount of government debt breaches the ceiling imposed by the domestic private sector financial assets, the JGB rates can rapidly rise and the Japanese government can face difficulty rolling over the existing debt. A simulation is conducted on future paths of household saving and fiscal situations to show that the ceiling would be breached in the next 10 years or so without a drastic fiscal consolidation. This paper also shows that the government debt can be kept under the ceiling with sufficiently large tax increases. The JGB yields can rise even before the ceiling is hit, if the expectation of such drastic fiscal consolidation disappears. This paper points out several possible triggers for such a change in expectation. However, downgrading of JGBs by credit rating agencies is not likely to be a trigger, since past downgrades have not produced any change in the JGB yield. If and when the JGB rates rapidly rise, the Japanese financial institutions that hold a large amount of JGBs will sustain losses and the economy will suffer from fiscal austerity, financial instability, and inflation.

How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?

Defying Gravity

Phillip Y. Lipscy

This volume seeks to explain the political economy of the Abe government and the so-called 'Abenomics' economic policies. The Abe government represents a major turning point in postwar Japanese political economy. In 2019, Abe became the longest serving Prime Minister in Japanese history. Abe's government stood out not only for its longevity, but also for its policies. Abe came to power promising to reinvigorate Japan's economy under the banner of Abenomics. He pursed a host of structural reforms and industrial promotions to increase Japan's potential growth rate. Abe also achieved important legislative victories in security policy. However, the government also faced significant controversies. The book will hold appeal to scholars and students specializing in the study of Japanese politics, comparative political economy, the politics of contemporary advanced democracies, macroeconomic policy, labor market reforms, corporate governance, gender equality, agricultural reforms, energy and climate change, and East Asian security.

The Political Economy of the Abe Government and Abenomics Reforms

Takeo Hoshi

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