Ted Piccone

Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights

Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening

Thomas Wright

Steven Pifer

President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He's facing a number of critical challenges ?the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order. This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories: ? Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. ? Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on. ? Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences. ? Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare. ? Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year. Contents:Big Bets ? Reassert U.S. Leadership of a Liberal Global Order by Robert Kagan and Ted Piccone ? Secure the Future of the Internet by Peter W. Singer and Ian Wallace ? Solidify the U.S.-Afghanistan Alliance by Michael E. O'Hanlon and Gen. John Allen (USMC, Ret.) ? Lift the Ban on U.S. Oil Exports by Tim Boersma and Charles K. Ebinger ? Strengthen Stability in Africa by Michael E. O'Hanlon Double Downs ? Broaden the Approach to Iran by Suzanne Maloney ? Pursue Regime Change in Syria by Michael Doran ? Return to the Asia Rebalance by Jonathan D. Pollack and Jeffrey A. Bader ? Reach Out to Cuba by Ted Piccone ? Avert Conflict in the South and East China Seas by Richard C. Bush III, Bruce Jones and Jonathan D. Pollack Black Swans ? Israeli-Palestinian Violence Erupts by Natan B. Sachs ? Putin's Russia Goes rogue by Fiona Hill and Steven Pifer ? Venezuela Breaks Down in Violence by Harold Trinkunas Nightmares ? Korean Crisis Prompts Confrontation with China by Jonathan D. Pollack and Richard C. Bush III ? Iran Nuclear Talks Fail by Robert Einhorn and Kenneth Pollack ? Afghanistan's Presidential Election Goes Awry by Vanda Felbab-Brown ? Muslim Brotherhood Radicalizes by Daniel L. Byman and Tamara Cofman Wittes Holds ? Avoid a U.S.-Saudi Divorce by Bruce Riedel ? Close the Deal on Free Trade by Mireya Solis ? Manage the Impact of Climate Change by Elizabeth Ferris ? Deepen Economic Ties to Turkey by Kemal Kirisci ? Beyond New START by Steven Pifer

A Presidential Briefing Book : Policy Recommendations for President Obama in 2014

Big Bets & Black Swans

Shifting power balances in the world are shaking the foundations of the liberal international order and revealing new fault lines at the intersection of human rights and international security. Will these new global trends help or hinder the world's long struggle for human rights and democracy? The answer depends on the role of five rising democracies—India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and Indonesia—as both examples and supporters of liberal ideas and practices. Ted Piccone analyzes the transitions of these five democracies as their stars rise on the international stage. While they offer important and mainly positive examples of the compatibility of political liberties, economic growth, and human development, their foreign policies swing between interest-based strategic autonomy and a principled concern for democratic progress and human rights. In a multipolar world, the fate of the liberal international order depends on how they reconcile these tendencies.

And the Fate of the International Liberal Order

Five Rising Democracies

Abraham F. Lowenthal

Daniel Vaughan-Whitehead

In early 2009, at the start of a new administration in Washington, the Brookings Institution Press published The Obama Administration and the Americas: Agenda for Change, offering a roadmap for a fresh approach to U.S. relations with its neighbors. Now, at the midway point of that presidential administration, the editors of that insightful volume follow up with Shifting the Balance: Obama and the Americas, an authoritative and critical look at what President Obama and his team have done in regard to Latin America and the Caribbean, how they have been received in the region, and what steps should be taken in the future.

Obama and the Americas

Shifting the Balance

President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He's facing a number of critical challenges—the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order. This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories: • Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. • Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on. • Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences. • Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare. • Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year.

Ted Piccone

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