Ugo Bardi

The essence of this book can be found in a line written by the ancient Roman Stoic Philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca: "Fortune is of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid". This sentence summarizes the features of the phenomenon that we call "collapse," which is typically sudden and often unexpected, like the proverbial "house of cards." But why are such collapses so common, and what generates them? Several books have been published on the subject, including the well known "Collapse" by Jared Diamond (2005), "The collapse of complex societies" by Joseph Tainter (1998) and "The Tipping Point," by Malcom Gladwell (2000). Why The Seneca Effect? This book is an ambitious attempt to pull these various strands together by describing collapse from a multi-disciplinary viewpoint. The reader will discover how collapse is a collective phenomenon that occurs in what we call today "complex systems," with a special emphasis on system dynamics and the concept of "feedback." From this foundation, Bardi applies the theory to real-world systems, from the mechanics of fracture and the collapse of large structures to financial collapses, famines and population collapses, the fall of entire civilzations, and the most dreadful collapse we can imagine: that of the planetary ecosystem generated by overexploitation and climate change. The final objective of the book is to describe a conclusion that the ancient stoic philosophers had already discovered long ago, but that modern system science has rediscovered today. If you want to avoid collapse you need to embrace change, not fight it. Neither a book about doom and gloom nor a cornucopianist's dream, The Seneca Effect goes to the heart of the challenges that we are facing today, helping us to manage our future rather than be managed by it.

Why Growth is Slow but Collapse is Rapid

The Seneca Effect

Nobody has to tell you that when things go bad, they go bad quickly and seemingly in bunches. Complicated structures like buildings or bridges are slow and laborious to build but, with a design flaw or enough explosive energy, take only seconds to collapse. This fate can befall a company, the stock market, or your house or town after a natural disaster, and the metaphor extends to economies, governments, and even whole societies. As we proceed blindly and incrementally in one direction or another, collapse often takes us by surprise. We step over what you will come to know as a “Seneca cliff”, which is named after the ancient Roman philosopher, Lucius Annaeus Seneca, who was the first to observe the ubiquitous truth that growth is slow but ruin is rapid. Modern science, like ancient philosophy, tell us that collapse is not a bug; it is a feature of the universe. Understanding this reality will help you to see and navigate the Seneca cliffs of life, or what Malcolm Gladwell called “tipping points.” Efforts to stave off collapse often mean that the cliff will be even steeper when you step over it. But the good news is that what looks to you like a collapse may be nothing more than the passage to a new condition that is better than the old. This book gives deeper meaning to familiar adages such as “it’s a house of cards”, “let nature take its course”, “reach a tipping point”, or the popular Silicon Valley expression, “fail fast, fail often.” As the old Roman philosopher noted, “nothing that exists today is not the result of a past collapse”, and this is the basis of what we call “The Seneca Strategy.” This engaging and insightful book will help you to use the Seneca Strategy to face failure and collapse at all scales, to understand why change may be inevitable, and to navigate the swirl of events that frequently threaten your balance and happiness. You will learn: How ancient philosophy and modern science agree that failure and collapse are normal features of the universe Principles that help us manage, rather than be managed by, the biggest challenges of our lives and times Why technological progress may not prevent economic or societal collapse Why the best strategy to oppose failure is not to resist at all costs How you can “rebound” after collapse, to do better than before, and to avoid the same mistakes.

A Guide to the Other Side of Growth

Before the Collapse

Carlos Alvarez Pereira

In 1972, The Limits to Growth changed the world. Fifty years later Limits and Beyond bring economists, analysts, and experts from across the globe to ask questions. What happened in the last 50 years? What did we learn? What's next?

50 Years on from The Limits to Growth, what Did We Learn and What's Next?

Limits and Beyond

"As we dig, drill, and excavate to unearth the planet's mineral bounty, the mineral resources we exploit - those least expensive to extract and process from ores, veins, seams, and wells - are becoming exhausted. Mineral treasures that took millions, even billions, of years to form are being squandered in decades. Efforts to reuse and recycle are hopeful, but are they enough? In Extracted, scientist and author Ugo Bardi delivers a sweeping history of how minerals formed; the empires, wars, and civilizations they inspired; and the gigantic global industry that grew up around them - one that is increasingly showing signs of strain as pollution increases and economic returns diminish. Extracted also explores mining's dark side: altered landscapes, poisoned ecosystems, and a key role in exacerbating climate change. Having thoroughly plundered planet Earth, we are entering a new world, one that Bardi, drawing upon the world's leading minerals experts, explores with compelling insight"--Page four of cover.

How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet

Extracted

“The Limits to Growth” (Meadows, 1972) generated unprecedented controversy with its predictions of the eventual collapse of the world's economies. First hailed as a great advance in science, “The Limits to Growth” was subsequently rejected and demonized. However, with many national economies now at risk and global peak oil apparently a reality, the methods, scenarios, and predictions of “The Limits to Growth” are in great need of reappraisal. In The Limits to Growth Revisited, Ugo Bardi examines both the science and the polemics surrounding this work, and in particular the reactions of economists that marginalized its methods and conclusions for more than 30 years. “The Limits to Growth” was a milestone in attempts to model the future of our society, and it is vital today for both scientists and policy makers to understand its scientific basis, current relevance, and the social and political mechanisms that led to its rejection. Bardi also addresses the all-important question of whether the methods and approaches of “The Limits to Growth” can contribute to an understanding of what happened to the global economy in the Great Recession and where we are headed from there.

The Limits to Growth Revisited

Ilaria Perissi

The “Blue Economy” is used to describe all of the economic activities related to the sea, with a special emphasis on sustainability. Traditional activities such as fisheries, but also undersea mining, tourism, and scientific research are included, as well as the phenomenal growth of aquaculture during the past decade. All of these activities, and the irresistible prospect of another new frontier, has led to enthusiastic and, most likely, overenthusiastic assessments of the possibilities to exploit the sea to feed the world, provide low-cost energy, become a new source of minerals, and other future miracles. This book makes sense of these trends and of the future of the blue economy by following our remote ancestors who gradually discovered the sea and its resources, describing the so-called fisherman’s curse – or why fishermen have always been poor, explaining why humans tend to destroy the resources on which we depend, and assessing the realistic expectations for extracting resources from the sea. Although the sea is not so badly overexploited as the land, our demands on ecosystem services are already above the oceans’ sustainability limits. Some new ideas, including “fishing down” for untapped resources such as plankton, could lead to the collapse of the entire marine ecosystem. How Neanderthals crossed the sea in canoes, how it was possible for five men on a small boat to kill a giant whale, what kind of oil the virgins of the Gospel put into their lamps, how a professor of mathematics, Vito Volterra, discovered the “equations of fishing,” why it has become so easy to be stung by a jellyfish while swimming in the sea, and how to play “Moby Dick,” a simple board game that simulates the overexploitation of natural resources are just some of the questions that you will be able to answer after reading this engaging and insightful book about the rapidly expanding relationship between humanity and the sea.

The Future of the Blue Economy

The Empty Sea

Walter Leal Filho

The implementation of sustainability initiatives on campuses is an essential component of promoting sustainability in the higher education context. In addition to reflecting an awareness of environmental issues, campus programmes demonstrate how seriously universities take sustainability at the institutional level. There is a lack of truly interdisciplinary publications that comprehensively address the issue of campus greening, and there is an even greater need for publications that do so at a truly international level. This book meets these needs. It is one of the outcomes of the “Second Symposium on Sustainability in University Campuses” (SSUC-2018), which was jointly organised by the University of Florence (Italy), Manchester Metropolitan University (UK), the Research and Transfer Centre “Sustainable Development and Climate Change Management” and the “European School of Sustainability Science and Research” at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences (Germany), in cooperation with the Inter-University Sustainable Development Research Programme (IUSDRP). The book showcases examples of campus-based research and teaching projects, regenerative campus design, low-carbon and zero-carbon buildings, waste prevention, and resilient transport, among others. Ultimately, it demonstrates the role of campuses as platforms for transformative social learning and research, and explores the means by which university campuses can be made more sustainable. The aims of this publication are as follows: • to provide universities with essential information on campus greening and sustainable campus development initiatives from around the world; • to share ideas and lessons learned in the course of research, teaching and projects on campus greening and design, especially successful initiatives and good practice; and • to introduce methodological approaches and projects intended to integrate the topic of sustainable development in campus design and operations. This book gathers contributions from researchers and practitioners in the field of campus greening and sustainable development in the widest sense, from business and economics, to the arts, administration and the environment, and hailing from Europe, Latin America, North America and Asia.

Ugo Bardi

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