Glenn Shafer

Alex Gammerman

Vladimir Vovk

Algorithmic Learning in a Random World

Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance

Marcus Hutter

Thomas Zeugmann

Frank Stephan

This volume contains the papers presented at the 21st International Conf- ence on Algorithmic Learning Theory (ALT 2010), which was held in Canberra, Australia, October 6–8, 2010. The conference was co-located with the 13th - ternational Conference on Discovery Science (DS 2010) and with the Machine Learning Summer School, which was held just before ALT 2010. The tech- cal program of ALT 2010, contained 26 papers selected from 44 submissions and ?ve invited talks. The invited talks were presented in joint sessions of both conferences. ALT 2010 was dedicated to the theoretical foundations of machine learning and took place on the campus of the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. ALT provides a forum for high-quality talks with a strong theore- cal background and scienti?c interchange in areas such as inductive inference, universal prediction, teaching models, grammatical inference, formal languages, inductive logic programming, query learning, complexity of learning, on-line learning and relative loss bounds, semi-supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering,activelearning,statisticallearning,supportvectormachines,Vapnik- Chervonenkisdimension,probablyapproximatelycorrectlearning,Bayesianand causal networks, boosting and bagging, information-based methods, minimum descriptionlength,Kolmogorovcomplexity,kernels,graphlearning,decisiontree methods, Markov decision processes, reinforcement learning, and real-world - plications of algorithmic learning theory. DS 2010 was the 13th International Conference on Discovery Science and focused on the development and analysis of methods for intelligent data an- ysis, knowledge discovery and machine learning, as well as their application to scienti?c knowledge discovery. As is the tradition, it was co-located and held in parallel with Algorithmic Learning Theory.

21st International Conference, ALT 2010, Canberra, Australia, October 6-8, 2010. Proceedings

Algorithmic Learning Theory

Alexander Gammerman

Zhiyuan Luo

Jesús Vega

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, COPA 2016, held in Madrid, Spain, in April 2016. The 14 revised full papers presented together with 1 invited paper were carefully reviewed and selected from 23 submissions and cover topics on theory of conformal prediction; applications of conformal prediction; and machine learning.

5th International Symposium, COPA 2016, Madrid, Spain, April 20-22, 2016, Proceedings

Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications

Game-theoretic probability and finance come of age Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk’s Probability and Finance, published in 2001, showed that perfect-information games can be used to define mathematical probability. Based on fifteen years of further research, Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance presents a mature view of the foundational role game theory can play. Its account of probability theory opens the way to new methods of prediction and testing and makes many statistical methods more transparent and widely usable. Its contributions to finance theory include purely game-theoretic accounts of Ito’s stochastic calculus, the capital asset pricing model, the equity premium, and portfolio theory. Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance is a book of research. It is also a teaching resource. Each chapter is supplemented with carefully designed exercises and notes relating the new theory to its historical context. Praise from early readers “Ever since Kolmogorov's Grundbegriffe, the standard mathematical treatment of probability theory has been measure-theoretic. In this ground-breaking work, Shafer and Vovk give a game-theoretic foundation instead. While being just as rigorous, the game-theoretic approach allows for vast and useful generalizations of classical measure-theoretic results, while also giving rise to new, radical ideas for prediction, statistics and mathematical finance without stochastic assumptions. The authors set out their theory in great detail, resulting in what is definitely one of the most important books on the foundations of probability to have appeared in the last few decades.” – Peter Grünwald, CWI and University of Leiden “Shafer and Vovk have thoroughly re-written their 2001 book on the game-theoretic foundations for probability and for finance. They have included an account of the tremendous growth that has occurred since, in the game-theoretic and pathwise approaches to stochastic analysis and in their applications to continuous-time finance. This new book will undoubtedly spur a better understanding of the foundations of these very important fields, and we should all be grateful to its authors.” – Ioannis Karatzas, Columbia University

Provides a foundation for probability based on game theory rather than measure theory. A strong philosophical approach with practical applications. Presents in-depth coverage of classical probability theory as well as new theory.

It's Only a Game!

Probability and Finance

Vineeth Balasubramanian

Shen-Shyang Ho

The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detection. As practitioners and researchers around the world apply and adapt the framework, this edited volume brings together these bodies of work, providing a springboard for further research as well as a handbook for application in real-world problems. Understand the theoretical foundations of this important framework that can provide a reliable measure of confidence with predictions in machine learning Be able to apply this framework to real-world problems in different machine learning settings, including classification, regression, and clustering Learn effective ways of adapting the framework to newer problem settings, such as active learning, model selection, or change detection

Theory, Adaptations and Applications

Conformal Prediction for Reliable Machine Learning

Vladimir Vovk

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