Mason-D’Croz, Daniel

Robertson, Richard D.

Wiebelt, Manfred

Breisinger, Clemens

Ringler, Claudia

Andersen, Lykke E.

Jemio, Luis Carlos

Verner, Dorte

This food policy report is a response to growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Latin American economies, agriculture, and people. It assesses both local and global effects of changing agricultural yields on the economy, subnational regions, and different household types, including male- and female-headed households in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. The three countries reflect economic and geographic diversity in Latin America and more than half of the region’s population. Climate change impacts tend to be relatively small at an economywide level in all three countries. However, sectoral and household-level economic impacts tend to be diverse across countries and subnational levels. They mainly depend on projected changes in agricultural yields, the share of agriculture in regional gross domestic product (GDP), crop-specific international trade balances, net food buyer/seller position, and income diversification of households. As for gender, results from this study suggest that female-headed households may be less vulnerable than male-headed households to the effects of climate change, highlighting the importance of considering women as a source for solutions for building resilience to climate change. Given the relatively small impacts of climate change and the degree of uncertainty associated with them, it is too early to define specific policy recommendations. All three countries should try to maximize the benefits that may come with higher agricultural world market prices and to minimize the losses from reductions in agricultural yields.

Prospects for 2050 in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru

Climate change Impacts and Household Resilience

Zhu, Tingju

Siddig, Khalid

Stepanyan, Davit

Grethe, Harald

Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects. We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050. The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$ 109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change.

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Raouf, Mariam

Randriamamonjy, Josée

Engelke, Wilfried

Kebsi, Tarek Al

Tandon, Sharad A.

A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a representation of an economy that shows the circular flow of all transfers and real transactions between sectors and institutions. The SAM, which is a square matrix, describes the flows of incomes from activities, taking the form of factor remunerations, that are consequently received by the households for consumption on goods and services. The accounts in the SAM are the production activities, commodities, institutions, and factors of production. According to data availability, the production activities can be further disaggregated to include more detailed information on sub-sectoral or regional production. Similarly, the factors of production could be differentiated by the level of skills or the location of employment. Households can be disaggregated by income quintiles or by rural and urban residence.

Regionalized Social Accounting Matrix for Yemen: A 2014 Nexus project SAM

Wiebelt, Manfred

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