Kym Anderson

Will Martin

Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe

"This paper examines whether the Sub-Saharan African economies could gain from multilateral trade reform in the presence of trade preferences. The World Bank's LINKAGE model of the global economy is employed to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the WTO's Doha round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa proportionately more than in other developing countries or in high-income countries, despite a terms of trade loss in parts of the region. Farm employment and output, the real value of agricultural and food exports, the real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes would all rise in the region, thereby alleviating poverty. A Doha partial liberalization of both agricultural and nonagricultural trade could significantly benefit the region." -- Cover verso.

Would Multilateral Trade Reform Benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?

The authors provide estimates of the impact that removing all merchandise trade distortions (including agricultural subsidies) would have on food and agricultural production, trade, and incomes. Using the latest versions of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and the World Bank's LINKAGE model of the global economy (projected to 2015), their results suggest farm employment, the real value of agricultural output and exports, the real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes would all rise substantially in developing country regions with a move to free merchandise trade, thereby alleviating rural poverty-despite the decline in international terms of trade for developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries.

Impacts on Agricultural Markets and Farm Incomes

Distortions to World Trade

Emiko Fukase

The ASEAN free trade area (AFTA) was created in 1992. This book presents an overview of the mechanisms of AFTA as well as individual country reports of the costs and benefits of membership. The final chapter looks at the potential impact on economic growth.

The Case of ASEAN

Free Trade Area Membership as a Stepping Stone to Development

L. Alan Winters

This is a synopsis of the papers, feedback, and discussion from the World Bank's sec conference on the Uruguay Round and the developing economies held January 1995.

Will Martin

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