Willi Semmler

Gang Gong

This is a book on stochastic dynamic macroeconomics from a Keynesian perspective. It shows that including Keynesian features in intertemporal models considerably contributes to resolve major puzzles arising in the context of the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model. It also demonstrates that including microeconomic intertemporal behavior of economic agents in macroeconomics is not inconsistent with Keynesian economics.

Theory and Empirical Evidence

Stochastic Dynamic Macroeconomics

Carl Chiarella

Peter Flaschel

This book represents the first of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. It questions in a radical way the evolution of Keynesian macroeconomics after World War II and focuses on the limitations of the traditional Keynesian approach until it fell apart in the early 1970s, as well as the inadequacy of the new consensus in macroeconomics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. Professors Chiarella, Flaschel and Semmler investigate basic methodological issues, the pitfalls of the Rational Expectations School, important feedback channels in the tradition of Tobin’s work, and theories of the wage-price spiral and the evidences for them. The book uses primarily partial approaches, the integration of which will be the subject of subsequent volumes. With its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms, the research in this book provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics should be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism.

Partial Perspectives

Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics Volume 1

As the 55th anniversary of the bank holiday of March 1933 approached, financial instability was a main topic in the financial press. Daily reports appeared of international debt crises, of the covert bankruptcy of deposit insurance, and of the near bankruptcy of one great financial institution after another. The great stock market crash of October 19 and 20, 1987, demonstrated that extreme instability can happen. It is generally asserted that the consequences of October 19th and 20th would have been disastrous if the Federal Reserve and Treasury interventions had not set things right. In 1933, financial markets in the United States and throughout the capitalist world collapsed. In the light of historical experience, the past 55 years are the anomaly. The papers collected in this volume come from various backgrounds and research paradigms. A common theme runs through these papers that makes the collection both interesting and important: The authors take seriously the obvious evidence that capitalist economies progress through time by lurching. Whether a particular study starts from household utility maximization or from the processes by which productive structures are reproduced and expanded, the authors are united in accepting the evidence that financial instability is a significant characteristic of modern capitalism.

New Perspectives

Financial Dynamics and Business Cycles

This book represents the second of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and offers a detailed analysis and comparison of two competing types of approaches to Keynesian macroeconomics.

Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics

This book pulls together papers presented at a conference in honour of the 1981 Nobel Prize Winner for Economic Science, the late James Tobin. Among the contributors are Olivier Blanchard, Edmund Phelps, Charles Goodhart and Marco Buti. One of the main aims of the conference was to discuss what potential role monetary policy has on economic activity and unemployment reduction in three key currency zones - the United States, European Union and Japan.

The US, Euro-area and Japan

Monetary Policy and Unemployment

Herbert Dawid

This volume is centered around the issue of market design and resulting market dynamics. The economic crisis of 2007-2009 has once again highlighted the importance of a proper design of market protocols and institutional details for economic dynamics and macroeconomics. Papers in this volume capture institutional details of particular markets, behavioral details of agents' decision making as well as spillovers between markets and effects to the macroeconomy. Computational methods are used to replicate and understand market dynamics emerging from interaction of heterogeneous agents, and to develop models that have predictive power for complex market dynamics. Finally treatments of overlapping generations models and differential games with heterogeneous actors are provided.

Computational Methods in Economic Dynamics

Marco Gallegati

This book deals with the application of wavelet and spectral methods for the analysis of nonlinear and dynamic processes in economics and finance. It reflects some of the latest developments in the area of wavelet methods applied to economics and finance. The topics include business cycle analysis, asset prices, financial econometrics, and forecasting. An introductory paper by James Ramsey, providing a personal retrospective of a decade's research on wavelet analysis, offers an excellent overview over the field.

Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance

This book represents the third of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. This book offers a full treatment of the interlinkages between the real and the financial markets, including an analysis of banking, credit, and endogenous money and asset markets. It remains critical of quite frequently used conventional macro models that have dropped the tradition of studying the macroeconomic feedback channels, well-known in the history of macroeconomics. Those feedback mechanisms are known to have the potential for instabilities with respect to real markets, price dynamics and financial markets. In this volume a particular emphasis is given to the financial-real interaction. The research in this book with its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. The main conclusion of the work is that policy makers need to reconsider Keynesian ideas, but in the modern form in which they are expressed in this volume. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics will be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. This book will also engage central bankers and macroeconomic policy makers.

Macroeconomic Activity, Banking and Financial Markets

Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics Volume 3

New School for Social Research (New York, N.Y. : 1919-1997)

Proceedings of an International Conference, New School for Social Research, New York, USA, March 1985

Competition, Instability, and Nonlinear Cycles

Chih-Ying Hsiao

Lebogang Mateane

This book examines sustainable wealth formation and dynamic decision-making. The global economy experienced a veritable meltdown of asset markets in the years 2007-9, where many funds were overexposed to risky returns and suffered considerable losses. On the other hand, the long-term upswing in the stock market since 2010 has led to asset price booms and some new, but also uneven, wealth formation. In this book a broader set of constraints and guidelines for asset management and wealth accumulation is developed. The authors investigate how wealth formation and the proper management of financial funds can help to adequately buffer income risk and obtain sufficient risk-free income at a later stage of life, while also being socially and environmentally sustainable. The book explores behavioral and institutional rules for decision-making that reflect such constraints and guidelines, without necessarily being optimal in the narrow sense. The authors explain the need for such a dynamic decision-making and dynamic re-balancing of portfolios, by putting forward dynamic programming as an approach to dynamic decision-making that can allow sustainable wealth accumulation and dynamic asset allocation to be successfully integrated. This book provides a clear and comprehensive treatment of asset accumulation and dynamic portfolio models with an emphasis on long term and sustainable wealth formation. An important concern in public debate is the sustainability of our economy and this book employs cutting edge quantitative techniques and models to highlight important facts that cannot be disputed under any reasonable assumptions. It has the potential to become a standard reference for both academic researchers and quantitatively trained practitioners. Eckhard Platen, Professor of Quantitative Finance, University of Technology Sydney, Australia This book should be read by both academics and practitioners alike. The former will find intellectually rigorous discussions and innovative solutions. The latter may find a few of the concepts a bit challenging. Yet, theory and technology are there to help simplify the work of those who worry about what time it is rather than how to make a watch--- but they do need a watch. Jean Brunel, Founder of Brunel Associates and Editor of The Journal of Wealth Management

Sustainable Asset Accumulation and Dynamic Portfolio Decisions

Reiner Franke

This book represents an ongoing research agenda the aim of which is to contribute to the Keynesian paradigm in macroeconomics. It examines the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model, the assumption of intertemporal optimizing behavior of economic agents, competitive markets and price mediated market clearing through flexible wages and prices.

Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels

Henry Arnhold Professor of Economics Willi Semmler

Alfred Greiner

A Time Series Perspective

The Forces of Economic Growth

Gangolf Groh

This volume is a review which presents both a basic science and clinical perspective on neuroprotective approaches to acute and chronic neurodegenerative conditions. Experts from both fields review current areas of neuroprotection. The book describes basic science discovery in stroke research and the application of such research within the pharmaceutical industry leading to the development of neuroprotective drugs.

Macro Perspectives

Disequilibrium, Growth and Labor Market Dynamics

Lucas Bernard

The first World Climate Conference, which was sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization in Genève in 1979, triggered an international dialogue on global warming. From the 1997 United Nations-sponsored conference-during which the Kyoto Protocol was signed-through meetings in Copenhagen, Cancún, Durban, and most recently Doha (2012) and Warsaw (2013), worldwide attention to the issue of global warming and its impact on the world's economy has rapidly increased in intensity. The consensus of these debates and discussions, however, is less than clear. Optimistically, many geoscience researchers and members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have supported CO2 emission reduction pledges while maintaining that a 2°C limit in increased temperature by the year 2100 is achievable through international coordination. Other observers postulate that established CO2 reduction commitments such as those agreed to at the Copenhagen United Nations Climate Change Conference (2009) are insufficient and cannot hold the global warming increase below 2°C. As experts theorize on precisely what impact global warming will have, developing nations have become particularly alarmed. The developed world will use energy to mitigate global warming effects, but developing countries are more exposed by geography and poverty to the most dangerous consequences of a global temperature rise and lack the economic means to adapt. The complex dynamics that result from this confluence of science and geopolitics gives rise to even more complicated issues for economists, financial planners, business leaders, and policy-makers. The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming analyzes the economic impact of issues related to and resulting from global warming, specifically the implications of possible preventative measures, various policy changes, and adaptation efforts as well as the different consequences climate change will have on both developing and developed nations. This multi-disciplinary approach, which touches on issues of growth, employment, and development, elucidates for readers state-of-the-art research on the complex and far-reaching problem of global warming.

The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming

Peter Herrmann

William R. Thompson

Arno Tausch

Leonid E. Grinin

Andrey V. Korotayev

Stephen I. Ternyik

Brian J. L. Berry

Philippe Jourdon 

Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan

Tom Palley

Denis J. Dean

Euel Elliott

Jonas Van Vossole

Leo Nefiodow

 Simone Nefiodow

Anton L. Grinin 

Valentina M. Bondarenko

Nikolai D. Kondratieff

Barry K. Gills

 Robert A. Denemark

In the period from the 1920s to 1930s the theory of economic cycles underwent dramatic changes. Due to the research of such famous economists as Nikolay Kondratieff, Joseph Kitchin, Wesley Mitchell, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter the idea of a whole system of economic cycles (with characteristic periods between two and sixty years) was developed. The idea of a system of intertwined economic cycles is nowadays paramount to the school of evolutionary economics and its development promises rather interesting future outcomes. That is why this issue of our ‘Kondratieff Waves’ Yearbook is devoted to the interconnections between various economic cycles. As to the subtitle of this volume, one should note that many of the contributors refer to the system of cycles and the fact that real economic cycles make up a system, whereas among different types of cycles, the Juglar, Kuznets, and Kondratieff cycles are the most important ones for the present-day economic dynamics. Although Kondratieff himself considered long waves as above all an economic phenomenon, the theory of the long waves became, however, very actively developed in connection with their political and geopolitical aspects. In this Yearbook, the political aspect of Kondratieff waves is the subject of several articles in the second section. The last section of this Yearbook is devoted to the heritage of Kondratieff and other prominent economists. The year 2015 marks the 150th anniversary of the outstanding Russian economist, one of the most prominent researchers of medium-term economic cycles, Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky, and the volume is concluded with Kondratieff's article about him. Concerning 2015, we should mention another anniversary, namely, 30 years since the death of Simon Kuznets (1901–1985). This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization.

Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff

Kondrarieff waves

Stefan Mittnik

Alexander Haider

Recent research in financial economics has shown that rare large disasters have the potential to disrupt financial sectors via the destruction of capital stocks and jumps in risk premia. These disruptions often entail negative feedback e?ects on the macroecon-omy. Research on disaster risks has also actively been pursued in the macroeconomic models of climate change. Our paper uses insights from the former work to study disaster risks in the macroeconomics of climate change and to spell out policy needs. Empirically the link between carbon dioxide emission and the frequency of climate re-lated disaster is investigated using cross-sectional and panel data. The modeling part then uses a multi-phase dynamic macro model to explore this causal nexus and the e?ects of rare large disasters resulting in capital losses and rising risk premia. Our proposed multi-phase dynamic model, incorporating climate-related disaster shocks and their aftermath as one phase, is suitable for studying mitigation and adaptation policies.

Climate Disaster Risks – Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model

"Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions" is a book on Financial Economics from a dynamic perspective. It focuses on the dynamic interaction of financial markets and economic activity. The financial markets to be studied here encompasses the money and bond market, credit market, stock market and foreign exchange market. Economic activity is described by the activity of firms, banks, households, governments and countries. The book shows how economic activity affects asset prices and the financial market and how asset prices and financial market volatility feed back to economic activity. The focus in this book is on theories, dynamic models and empirical evidence. Empirical applications relate to episodes of financial instability and financial crises of the U.S., Latin American, Asian as well as Euro-area countries. The current version of the book has moved to a more extensive coverage of the topics in financial economics by updating the literature in the appropriate chapters. Moreover it gives a more extensive treatment of new and more advanced topics in financial economics such as international portfolio theory, multi-agent and evolutionary approaches, capital asset pricing beyond consumption-based models and dynamic portfolio decisions. Overall, the book presents material that researchers and practitioners in financial engineering need to know about economic dynamics and that economists, practitioners and policy makers need to know about the financial market.

Financial Economics from a Dynamic Perspective

Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions

Willi Semmler

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