Yan Xuetong

This book predicts possible international changes that may occur between 2013 and 2023. It forecasts that China will become a global superpower no later than 2023, and that a bipolar world will be formed with a strategic rivalry between China and the US. China may also further reduce the disparity in capability with the US, while other major powers will witness an enlarged capability gap with both China and the US. Therefore, this bipolarization will drive the world center to shift from Europe to East Asia. In East Asia, Japan will become a lesser state, North Korea will keep its nuclear arsenal, but stop nuclear tests, and the maritime disputes in South China Sea will no longer the major problem to ASEAN countries by 2023. In Europe, Germany will dominate the EU while it is decentralized, the UK will withdraw from the EU, and Russia will deteriorate dramatically under Putin's rule. Globalization will also worsen polarization at both domestic and international levels, and India will lag behind China even further, the Middle East will suffer from the rivalry among regional powers, and Africa will be further marginalized.

China and the World By 2023

Inertia of History

Amitav Acharya

Daniel A. Bell

Rajeev Bhargava

A free open access ebook is available upon publication. Learn more at www.luminosoa.org. The rise of China and India could be the most important political development of the twenty-first century. What will the foreign policies of China and India look like in the future? What should they look like? And what can each country learn from the other? Bridging Two Worlds gathers a coterie of experts in the field, analyzing profound political thinkers from these ancient regions whose theories of interstate relations set the terms for the debates today. This volume is the first work that systematically compares ancient thoughts and theories about international politics between China and India. It is essential reading for anyone interested in the growth of China and India and what it will mean for the rest of the world.

Comparing Classical Political Thought and Statecraft in India and China

Bridging Two Worlds

A leading foreign policy thinker uses Chinese political theory to explain why some powers rise as others decline and what this means for the international order Why has China grown increasingly important in the world arena while lagging behind the United States and its allies across certain sectors? Using the lens of classical Chinese political theory, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers explains China’s expanding influence by presenting a moral-realist theory that attributes the rise and fall of great powers to political leadership. Yan Xuetong shows that the stronger a rising state’s political leadership, the more likely it is to displace a prevailing state in the international system. Yan shows how rising states like China transform the international order by reshaping power distribution and norms, and he considers America’s relative decline in international stature even as its economy, education system, military, political institutions, and technology hold steady. Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers offers a provocative, alternative perspective on the changing dominance of states.

Yan Xuetong

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