Geography Matters Simulating the Local Impacts of National Social Policies

This report explores how to develop new spatial microsimulation techniques to combine census small area data with the British Household Panel Survey in order to build and update a small area population microdata set in Britain at various geographical scales between 1991-2021. Drawing on a pilot study of the city of York, this report documents the simulation of the results of a house-to-house survey, explaining the methods used and focusing on and how the population is changing in terms of households and individuals. The report demonstrates how such techniques may be used to examine how British society has changed up over time, measuring the influence of policy, and how it is likely to change in the future, were current trends to continue. As an illustration of the methods used, the authors also speculate about how different policy options may have different effects, under different circumstances. It also includes a verified model of the lives of households and individuals in City of York 1991 onwards.