Figuring Out the Doha Round

The Doha Round marked its eighth birthday in November 2009, making it the longest running multilateral trade negotiation in the postwar era. Doha participants continue to disagree about prospective liberalization of agriculture and manufactures and have barely begun to consider reductions in barriers to trade in services. Negotiators have missed every deadline to conclude the talks, leading some to question the viability of the entire venture. After nearly nine years of inconclusive meetings, the trade talks are at a tipping point: A global trade deal is still possible with renewed political commitment to trade reform, but continued drift could result in the first outright failure of a multilateral trade round in the postwar era. This policy analysis shows that the Doha Round can still be successfully concluded with a concerted push by the major trading nations. Contrary to the Doha doomsayers, the potential gains from proposals now on the table are significant, albeit not sufficient to close a deal. The authors estimate the trade gains and GDP gains from a prospective Doha deal that "tops up" existing commitments to liberalize agriculture, manufactures, and services. They also suggest what each of the major trading nations needs to do to ensure the successful completion of a Doha package that is both ambitious and balanced between the interests of developed and developing countries.