Name: How to Avoid a Climate Disaster
Rating: 4.208256880733945 (109 reviews)
ISBN: 9780241448304

Bill Gates

In this urgent, authoritative book, Bill Gates sets out a wide-ranging, practical—and accessible—plan for how the world can get to zero greenhouse gas emissions in time to avoid a climate catastrophe.

The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need

How to Avoid a Climate Disaster

I liked it, learned some things about how our world is shaped, and got a good grasp on the current climate situation and future.

Tomas Canosa Moreno

Bu kitap, okuyan herkesi dünyanın ve doğanın geleceği için bir nefer yapacak. “İşte iklim değişikliği hakkında bilmeniz gereken iki rakam. Birincisi 51 milyar. Diğeri ise sıfır. 51 milyar, dünyanın genel anlamda her yıl atmosfere saldığı ton cinsinden sera gazı miktarı. Bu rakam yıldan yıla bir miktar aşağı veya yukarı yönde değişse de, genellikle artıyor. Bugün bulunduğumuz nokta bu. Sıfır ise emisyonda hedeflememiz gereken rakam.”

İklim Felaketini Nasıl Önleriz

Oguzhan Kircali

İklim krizi ile ilgili genel hatları görebilmek, sebep-sonuç ilişkisi kurabilmek, bazı öngörülerde bulunabilmek için okunabilecek çok yararlı bir kitap olduğunu düşünüyorum.

Andrew John Kinney

3.7, rounded to 4.

First of all, I feel a little bad for Bill Gates. Unlike other billionaires who seem intent on living on Mars, Bill is actually interested in fixing the only planet we have. So kudos to him; give him a break, haters. That said, I really, really wish Bill had written this book as a collaborative effort with people like Bill McKibben or Elizabeth Kolbert or Hope Jahren, if for no other reason than to improve it's style, but also to increase the number of ideas circulating in his orbit. And why doesn't he reference the fine work done by the Drawdown Project or by the many professors at Stanford and other universities working on possible solutions and quantifying the problem. Instead, he name checks a book written in 2010 by a British professor who died in 2016. It's not a horrible book, but there are more modern, and maybe, probably, better ideas out there in 2021.

Also, I was a little stunned that he said he really didn't begin to believe global warming was a real thing until 2006. What? I realize he was a little busy in the '90's, but still. I learned about the theory of atmospheric warming due to CO2 in my undergraduate chemistry class, and I've been following the literature since then, and following it intently since about 1988 (Hansen, NASA, all that jazz really got cranked up in '88). And despite describing the dangers of sea level rise, he makes the rookie error of not noting that one of the greatest problems caused by CO2 in the oceans is acidification of seawater, which eventually could get bad enough to prevent corals building new coral, or sea creatures making shells or carapaces (think crabs, barnacles, clams, etc). And he seems to minimize or not really understand what a general ecological collapse brought on by global warming would mean for us humans.

Okay, so what did I like, now that I'm done carping? I like that he simplified things down to the CO2 budget of Earth (his 51 billion tons per year number), and breaks it out into its constituent parts by segment: manufacturing things: think steel, concrete, plastic; producing electricity; agriculture; transportation; and heating / cooling. And then he talks about how to address each sector. He takes a logical engineer's approach to the issue, mostly* (*more on that later). He introduced me to an interesting concept while explaining energy production; the idea of density of power production. He points out that it takes a lot more space to produce energy from solar or wind than it does from a natural gas powered or nuclear powered electric plant. It's a good point, but he doesn't consider the counter argument, which is that all that space on the roofs of all those big box stores, or for that matter, residential rooftops, is not exactly in high demand for other uses. And he doesn't spend nearly enough time on jobs, which could be a huge win-win for green energy. 

Gates makes a good point about the need for steady energy production. Unless we are all going to have Tesla Walls to power our homes at night, and even bigger Tesla Walls for businesses and manufacturers, you have to have a way to supply electricity constantly. In the US, currently we do this mostly by burning fossil fuels (60%), with 20% from nuclear and 20% from renewables, including hydropower. So how to reduce the steady power from fossil fuels and replace it with non-CO2-producing sources? Gates throws out a lot of possibilities (modern, safer nuclear plants, geothermal, pumped hydro), but he doesn't take the extra step to do the math that says, "Okay, we can get to 60% of power production with renewables, add 10% for geothermal and pumped hydro, 10% from batteries, keep the 20% from nuclear, and Presto!, you're there!" That would have made me like the book a lot more. He simply presents a sort of laundry list, unlike the Drawdown Project that actually attempted to do the math in detail.

I'm an engineer and a math minor, and the above noted lack of specificity by Gates was frustrating to me. This is an optimization problem, and you could, even using today's costs for solar, geothermal, wind, modern nuclear, etc, crank the numbers and come up with an answer including cost and relative % contribution from various sources. You could also get fancy, and project future costs for solar, etc, which are sure to go lower, and get a more refined answer, but Bill didn't do this. I don't get it; he has access to all the resources in the world given his status as 4th richest man around, and leading world philanthropist, and yet he didn't work the math, or hire someone to work the math to come up with a prescriptive solution that could serve as a straw man for policy makers. And there are plenty of people who would have jumped at the chance to do that arithmetic.

Then he talks about "making things", mainly concrete, steel, and plastic, and I was surprised to learn how much CO2 this produces. He spends a lot of time on "green premiums", i.e., the cost to make carbon-neutral materials, which are interesting, because you learn how relatively cheap it is to do this with steel and plastic, less so with concrete. And much of the improvement in this area will stem from using carbon-neutral electricity, of course.

He talks next about agriculture and the need to reduce red meat intake, which in turn reduces cattle populations, which in turn reduces methane production. And methane is 28 times more potent as a warming gas compared to CO2, so this is important, and not a joke, as DeSantis-types try to make it (because after all, those wacky libs are talking about cow farts! How nuts are they, etc.). He makes a strong case for reducing red meat intake, which would be good for us anyway, and cutting meat intake in half could reduce global greenhouse emissions by about 2.5%, maybe more. He also shows how fertilizer causes problems, but he does not highlight the amazing progress made, and jobs created by large organic farms like White Oak Pastures in Georgia. A huge amount of food could be produced organically which would both reduce emissions from fertilizers and create jobs. But this is not mentioned; instead we get a story about his dad reducing hamburger intake and a pitch for artificial meat, which are possibly not exactly industrial-scale solutions. He makes a pitch to stop deforestation and plant trees wherever possible, and I agree 100%. What needs more emphasis, in my opinion, is creating incentives for people to consume less, and to consume more wisely, because the traditional US consumption model for food cannot be sustained on a global level. Also, let's stop cutting the trees we have, especially in the Amazon and Congo.

Then transportation is addressed, which turns out to be one of the easier areas to fix, though it depends on solving the energy production problem mentioned above. Fundamentally, all transportation except long-haul air transport and sea shipment needs to be electrified, and fossil fuel consumption for sea shipments can be greatly reduced. Lest we forget, 150 years ago all sea shipment was by sail, and there are pilot projects underway to supplement power with sail on cargo ships (not mentioned by this book, which instead discusses nuclear powered container ships....hmmm....what could go wrong, because, you know, big cargo ships never sink). Of course we need to convert to electric vehicles immediately, and that covers a huge chunk of what needs to be done. I wish he had talked about shifting more freight from trucks to trains, but I'm nit-picking.

Heating and cooling is covered next - again, I wish Bill had done more research. He briefly mentions the refrigerants used in A/C units, but he seems to not realize what a big deal those are; those refrigerants are among the most potent greenhouse gases on the planet, and they urgently need to be replaced with less problematic materials. The Drawdown project points to this as possibly the worst threat in terms of increasing warming, because a) these gases are so powerful as greenhouse gases, and b) because use of A/C is accelerating exponentially worldwide. Bill does talk about the need for greater efficiency and increased insulation in buildings, which are a critical first step, and both are low-hanging fruit.

Then adaptation. I wish he had spent more time on CO2 capture/sequestration technology, because we are going to need it badly (because we simply can't get all this done fast enough). And one of the controversial approaches he discusses is sun-dimming, through particulate injection into the stratosphere. Here's where a real writer like one of the three I mentioned at the outset might have helped him, because this subject needs to be handled delicately, mindfully, with consciousness of the risk involved. Gates makes the absolutely valid point that we better figure out how to do the sun-dimming dance without causing SnowPiercer results, and we better figure it out in less than ten years. We are a bit like the guy on the third floor of a burning building and the staircases are blocked. Is the better choice to jump, or is it better to wait for the fire department to put out the fire? It's a tough decision. ***Update as of June 2022: sucking CO2 out of the air and sequestering it underground is looking a bit more problematic these days, not because it's not possible, but because of the enormous cost of doing it. So instead, perhaps spend that money on a faster conversion to non-CO2 producing transportation, AC, etc.

Finally Mr. Gates talks about government involvement in solutions, and frankly I got the impression he was trying to please everyone, and not anger Republicans in particular. He would do better to commit a big chunk of his fortune to defeating every Republican lawmaker who continues to scoff at climate change; McConnell, Inhofe, and Cruz would be good seats to target, for starters. Sorry, but it's too late in the day to play nice with idiots who are putting our grandchildren's futures at risk.

So, to sum up, I'm glad Bill Gates wrote this book. If nothing else, it brings renewed attention to the subject. It is a readable, only occasionally boring, book; all in all, not bad. I do wish he had made bold, precisely calculated proposals to solve the issues ahead of us, and I wish he had avoided self-promotion entirely, because that's a bad look for billionaires. He makes an excellent point about investment to get to carbon neutral by 2050, i.e., 2050 is tomorrow in infrastructure terms. The big things we build today will still be in use in 2050, so we need to choose wisely now, not in ten years.

In re-reading the chapters to do this review, my opinion of the book went up a bit. I do like the organization of the material, so I would recommend this book, but I would also recommend about five others to supplement it, and I'd like Bill to increase his reading on the subject as well. He is now a key player, and he needs to collaborate with the really smart people who are working extremely hard to avoid catastrophe. I hope he will devote his energy and fortune to that.

Oğuzhan Kırçalı

Maja Cieslik

A big recommend from me. This should be adapted into countries' school curricula, as it is a clear and concise guide on "how to climate change". Bill Gates (and his advisors) did a great job at providing the reader with a good perspective on what actually constitutes global emissions. Three things that grabbed my attention: 
1. presenting actual plans and schedule on how to implement solutions to tackle climate change. 
2. word choices in the Polish language version - feminine verbs and inclusive language, accompanied by statistics on Poland to enrich US-focused book - a huge thumbs-up for the translator. 
3. global perspective - poorer economies are not left behind here. Different climates and development needs are taken into account by the author.
My highlight was in particular a following argument that Gates makes here - the actual reduction in CO2 emissions to 2030 is not a particularly important step - as building less emitting plants (e.g. LPG) now will not make them disappear until 2050 (when 0 net CO2 emissions are a must). Hence what is important on every step of the way is to constantly question, whether steps taken now will eventually bring us closer to the final goal (net 0 in 2050). 
No time was wasted reading, and I particularly admire how accessible read it was - I feel now encouraged to read more on the subject of energy and green transformation. 
Another conclusion - we live in challenging but also really groundbreaking times. Next 10 years will determine the rest of them.

Varol Aksoy

ufuk açıcı bilgilerle dolu, harika bir kitaptı. çevre duyarlılığı konusundaki farkındalığımı yeni bir boyuta taşıdı, umarım pratikte de uygulayabilirim altını çizdiklerimi :) iklim sorunu konusunda yeni şeyler öğrenmek isterseniz, tereddütsüz tavsiye edebilirim.

Zack Apira

Engaging read with lots of insights and data as to be expected from him. I finished it feeling more optimistic that we can tackle this climate problem.

Bill Gates shares what he's learned in more than a decade of studying climate change and investing in innovations to address the problems, and sets out a vision for how the world can build the tools it needs to get to zero greenhouse gas emissions. Bill Gates explains why he cares so deeply about climate change and what makes him optimistic that the world can avoid the most dire effects of the climate crisis. Gates says, "We can work on a local, national, and global level to build the technologies, businesses, and industries to avoid the worst impacts of climate change." His interest in climate change is a natural outgrowth of the efforts by his foundation to reduce poverty and disease. Climate change, according to Gates, will have the biggest impact on the people who have done the least to cause it. As a technologist, he has seen firsthand how innovation can change the world. By investing in research, inventing new technologies, and by deploying them quickly at large scale, Gates believes climate change can be addressed in meaningful ways. According to Gates, "to prevent the worst effects of climate change, we have to get to net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases. This problem is urgent, and the debate is complex, but I believe we can come together to invent new carbon-zero technologies, deploy the ones we have, and ultimately avoid a climate catastrophe."

Keven Wang

I truly believe that our next frontiers for human innovation will be in climate and energy. 

This book is written in such a plain language. It shows Bill has really deep understanding of the topic 

Remember Bill called the pandemic years ago. This book will serve the same purpose

Simao Freitas

Really insightful look at the situation in the world regarding pollution that contributes to climate change. Proposes quite pragmatic and reasonable approaches for improvement. It’s easy to read and accessible.

In this urgent, authoritative book, Bill Gates sets out a wide-ranging, practical - and accessible - plan for how the world can get to zero greenhouse gas emissions in time to avoid a climate catastrophe. Bill Gates has spent a decade investigating the causes and effects of climate change. With the help of experts in the fields of physics, chemistry, biology, engineering, political science, and finance, he has focused on what must be done in order to stop the planet's slide toward certain environmental disaster. In this book, he not only explains why we need to work toward net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, but also details what we need to do to achieve this profoundly important goal. He gives us a clear-eyed description of the challenges we face. Drawing on his understanding of innovation and what it takes to get new ideas into the market, he describes the areas in which technology is already helping to reduce emissions, where and how the current technology can be made to function more effectively, where breakthrough technologies are needed, and who is working on these essential innovations. Finally, he lays out a concrete, practical plan for achieving the goal of zero emissions-suggesting not only policies that governments should adopt, but what we as individuals can do to keep our government, our employers, and ourselves accountable in this crucial enterprise. As Bill Gates makes clear, achieving zero emissions will not be simple or easy to do, but if we follow the plan he sets out here, it is a goal firmly within our reach.

So far one of the few texts on climate change that was able to put the issue in perspective and break it down into solvable bits, instead of making you anxious with the whole complexity and size of the thing we have on our hands. Mostly good for that reason, because otherwise I think it’s a little too optimistic on the “innovation will save us, keep living the way you live”. Basically, there is almost no criticism to the foundational system that got us where we are. 

Francisco Gusmão

Kyle S

A great overview on the looming dangers of climate change, what technologies are be developed to reverse / mitigate it, and what we can do both as individuals and as a society to overcome this obstacle. A must read for those concerned about climate change.

Danny White

A technophile takes a technical approach to a wicked problem… which is refreshingly practical.

A lot of other folks’ criticism seems to be about Gates’ billionaire persona. That criticism is naïve about the challenge ahead and addressed several times by Gates throughout the book. He distills the situation into tangible goals and plans, mainly around getting to net zero by making ‘Green Premiums’ on zero carbon alternatives small enough to be competitive on price to their polluting equivalents.

The most intangible parts are the not-yet-achieved innovations we need to make, say, zero-carbon cement a reality and with a low enough Green Premium for governments and industry to switch to. Yet all of these technological challenges are addressed, explained simply, and primed for action.

For the haters:

I hope you’ll spend more time and energy supporting whatever you’re in favor of than opposing what you’re against.

A technophile takes a technical approach to a wicked problem… which is refreshingly practical.

A lot of other folks’ criticism seems to be about Gates’ billionaire persona. That criticism is naïve about the challenge ahead and addressed several times by Gates throughout the book. He distills the situation into tangible goals and plans, mainly around getting to net zero by making ‘Green Premiums’ on zero carbon alternatives small enough to be competitive on price to their polluting equivalents.

The most intangible parts are the not-yet-achieved innovations we need to make, say, zero-carbon cement a reality and with a low enough Green Premium for governments and industry to switch to. Yet all of these technological challenges are addressed, explained simply, and primed for action.

For the haters:

> I hope you’ll spend more time and energy supporting whatever you’re in favor of than opposing what you’re against.

Kevin Heinrich

If you are in the sustainability bubble this book is only a reminder of everything we need to do. For some people it might be a good handbook getting some arguments in hand for a deeper discussion 

Kanan Khasmammadov 

Must read book for anyone interested in green tech and climate change issues. It is written in plain language which can easily be understood by everyone. If you are questioning how the climate change can affect you, then this book has the answers.

Tanja Hoffmann

It was well written and I loved the last chapters on policy and concrete plans (some of the other chapters were quite boring). But, as many other reviewers have pointed out, this book really begs the question „Who is it for?“. Who will be reached by this and what good will it do? I think that question is left unanswered, although not for a lack of trying on the author's part. I just don’t see it having enough impact to matter, and that’s kind of what drives the whole book.

How to Avoid a Climate Disaster The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need

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